Developing a carbon neutral island

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Developing a carbon neutral island John
McClatchey BSc PhD MBA FRMetS Senior Research
Fellow, Environmental Research Institute
(ERI) Castle Street, Thurso, KW14 7JD
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Table 1 Electricity generation in
Scotland GWh Coal 14,776 Gas
8,847 Nuclear 15,863 Oil 186
Hydro 3,693 Small hydro and
renewables 1,405 Small/other fossil fuel
747 Total 45,517 Source AEA
Technology (2006)
Table 2 Exploitable renewable energy capacity
(GW) Wind (on-shore) 11.5 Wind
(off-shore) 25.0 Wave 14.0 Tidal
flow 7.5 Large hydro (new)
0.2 Biomass 0.6 Source Boehme (2006)
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Figure 2 Current energy use in Scotland and UK
by sector (Source AEA Technology 2006)
Figure 3a Scottish domestic energy use compared
to UK (Source AEA Technology 2006)
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Figure 3b Scottish and UK industry energy use
(Source AEA Technology, 2006)
Figure 3c Scottish and UK service sector energy
use (Source AEA Technology, 2006)
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Table 3 Percentage fuel use by sector in
Scotland Fuel Domestic Industry Services
Transport Total Solid fuel 1.8
0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 Oil 3.5
3.1 1.7 28.3
36.6 Natural Gas 20.9 10.7 6.9
0.0 38.4 Electricity 7.4
6.3 6.8 0.2 20.7 Renewable
0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
1.8 Total 33.9 21.4 16.2
28.5 100.0 Source AEA Technology (2006) Based
on total consumption of 165.27 TWh (another 10.65
TWh was used at oil refineries)
population (2002) Scotland
5,054,800 Shetland Islands
21,940 Source General Register Office, Scotland
(http//www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files/02-pop-est-t
ab1.xls)
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Table 4 Estimated fuel use in Shetland in
proportion to use in Scotland
GWh Domestic Total Actual
(2006) Solid 12.9 17.9 ? (no
details available) Oil 25.1 262.5
? (no details available) Natural Gas
149.9 275.5 0.0 (some bottled gas
used) Electricity 53.1 148.5 230.6
(actual) Renewables 0.0 12.9
18.4 (included in electricity) District
Heating - - 28.2
(estimated from MSW used) Total
243.2 717.3 Source AEA Technology (2006) and
Shetland Islands Council (2006)
Scotland has 17.9 greater demand for space
heating than UK as a whole. Due to cooler and
windier climate than rest of Scotland, Shetland
may have 5 extra space heating demand. This
would give total energy demand of 726 GWh Of the
above demand, about 203 GWh will be for transport
(based on same proportion of transport energy
demand as for Scotland as a whole.
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Table 5 Wind power capacity Shetland
(1989-99) Wind Power Capacity
() Year 10m 80m 1989 38.0 58.1 1990 44.6 5
5.5 1991 38.6 51.9 1992 38.5 57.0 1994 43.5
58.9 1995 39.1 55.3 1996 38.1 56.6 1997 42.8
58.3 1998 42.9 61.1 1999 44.3 58.1 Av. 41.0
57.1 (Based on 24 hour moving average centred on
1200 and power curve from Nordex N80 2.5MW
turbine. Data for 1993 were incomplete and
therefore that year was excluded from the
analysis)
Figure 4 Wind speed distribution, Lerwick
(1989-1999)
Source BADC. Effective height of anemometer 10m
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Source http//www.vikingenergy.co.uk/downloads/ P
ress20release20-20consulation20start.pdf
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Figure 5 Looking east over Aith
Source http//www.vikingenergy.co.uk/draft_images
.asp
Figure 6 Looking SE from Busta to Wethersta and
Voe Source http//www.vikingenergy.co.uk/draft_im
ages.asp
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Renewable energy costs Discount
rate Wind power (cost p/kWh at 600/kW) 8
11 17.5 35 capacity factor 4.0 4.4
5.4 50 capacity factor 3.0 3.3 4.0
50 capacity factor (as above but 800/kW)
3.8 4.2 5.1 (assumes 0.55 p/kWh operating
costs, 2 rent and 1 of capital annual
insurance charge inflated at 5 pa (above costs
do not include ROC or LEC payments currently
3.0 and 0.43p/kWh, Aquatera, 2005)
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Renewable Hydrogen energy costs (p/kWh)
Discount rate Hydrogen from wind turbine powered
electrolysis 8 11 17.5 Electrolyser
cost (current price 400/kW) 2.6 2.8
3.2 Electrolyser cost (future price 200/kW)
1.8 1.9 2.0 (assumes operation for 4380
hours per annum i.e. 50 capacity factor for
wind, 80 electrolyser efficiency, 0.8 p/kWh
operating cost, 0.1p/kWh compression costs, 1
of capital annual insurance charge inflated at 5
pa, income stream starts immediately)
Electricity cost (p/kWh from wind at 800/kW)
4.8 5.3 6.4 (4380 kWh to produce 3500
kWh H2 80 efficiency) Total cost of
hydrogen (p/kWh) Current electrolyser prices
7.4 8.1 9.6 Future electrolyser
prices 6.6 7.2 8.4 (above costs do
not include ROC or LEC payments) Including ROC
and LEC payments on future prices 3.2 3.8
5.0 Typical UK domestic gas price (end
2006), 3.26 p/kWh The Shetland Islands are not
on gas grid and therefore use electricity or oil
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Gas Turbine Generation Discount
Rate 8 17.5 Cost of Gas
Turbine 3.3 4.3 (280/kW,
0.8p/kWh operating cost, 1 of capital as annual
insurance cost inflated at 5 pa) Cost of
hydrogen for Gas Turbine (GT) 11.0
14.0 (60 efficient GT, H2 at 6.6 and 8.4 p/kWh)
Total cost of electricity from GT 14.3
18.3 Cost of GT electricity including ROC
and LEC payments 10.9 14.9 Average cost
of electricity for Shetland Islands (p/kWh)
9.1 11.7 (excluding ROC and LEC payments, and
assuming 50 wind, 50 GT) Average cost
including ROC and LEC payments 5.7
8.3 Typical UK domestic electricity price (end
2006), 10.94 p/kWh
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Vehicle Fuel Discount rate
8 17.5 Cost of hydrogen for vehicles (p/litre
petrol equivalent) a) 77.9 101.0 b)
69.4 88.4 a) H2 at 7.4 and 9.6 p/kWh - current
electrolyser prices for H2, and b) H2 at 6.6 and
8.4 p/kWh - future electrolyser prices for
H2 (excluding any ROC and LEC payments) Fuel
Cells Discount rate 8
17.5 Cost of Fuel Cell 4.1
5.1 (future price of 500/kW, 80 efficiency,
operating cost 0.8p/kWh, insurance1 of capital
annually inflated at 5 pa) Cost of H2 fuel
(future H2 cost of 6.6 and 8.4 p/kWh) 8.3
10.5 Total (future) cost of electricity
(electrolyser and fuel cell) 12.4
15.6 Current cost from fuel cells (at 2000/kW
and H2 as above) 21.4 27.7 GT cost of
electricity (matched by fuel cell cost of
825/kW) 14.3 18.3 (all excluding any
ROC and LEC payments)
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Summary of wind turbine generation required to
supply Shetland Islands energy needs
Installed capacity Electricity (peak
demand) 50 MW Additional electricity needed
for hydrogen production for GT 34 MW Power for
hydrogen production for vehicle fuel 58
MW Power for hydrogen production for additional
power 84 MW (assumes 80 electrolyser and 90
condensing boiler efficiency) Total installed
capacity 224 MW Approximately 40 of
proposed 600 MW Viking Energy proposal
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Looking NNE across Scalloway to Burradale 3.68 MW
wind farm