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1
WEATHER OUTLOOK 2009 PRESENTED BY World
Weather, Inc.
WEBSITE -- http//www.worldweather.cc
Telephone [phone] EMAIL ------
worldweather_at_bizkc.rr.com Fax
Number 913-383-1198
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The Most Recent 30 Days Of Weather Has Included
Abundant Precipitation From Eastern Kansas And
Missouri To Wisconsin And Michigan. The Wet
Weather Has Delayed Planting Progress And Wet
Weather That Occurred Additionally Over This Same
Region Since April 30 Has Further Saturated The
Ground And Induced Greater Flooding. The Wet
Weather Bias Is Further South Than Expected
Because Of Persistent Cool Weather And These
Trends May Be Around For Another Few Weeks. There
Will Be Some Brief Periods Of Improved Weather In
Which Planting Can Proceed.
Data From NWS
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Despite Recent Flooding In A Part Of The U.S.
Delta, The Area Has Not Had As Much Rain As One
Might Imagine. Rainfall Has Actually Been Below
Average In The Past 30 Days. That Contrasts With
Southern Georgia, Northern Florida And
Southeastern Alabama Where Rainfall Has Been Well
Above Average Limiting Some Fieldwork And
Warranting Drier Weather. More Recent Weather Has
Provided Much Drier Conditions To The
Southeastern States And The Excess Moisture Of
The Past Is Gone.
Data From NWS
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Drought In South Texas Is Very Serious And
Acreage Was Notably Reduced In The Region
Minimizing The Impact Of On-going Dryness.
Moisture Deficits From The Past Two Months Are
Not Very Impressive In West Texas And A Single
Storm Could Fix The Drier Bias Instantly.
However, 6-Month Moisture Deficits In West Texas
Are More Significant Leaving Subsoil Moisture And
Water Tables Below Average. Timely Rain Is All
That Most Producers Would Like To Have. The Texas
Blacklands And Upper Coast Have Been Wetter Than
Usual.
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KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

• SUNSPOTS
• ENSO La Nina/El Nino
• PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
• LONG TERM CYCLES

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SUNSPOT CYCLE SINCE 1700s
Sun Spot Numbers
Sun Spot Numbers
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FORECAST PROBLEM NUMBER ONE
Is This The Year Of The Sunspot Minimum Or The
Year After The Sunspot Minimum?
One Spot On April 30, 2009 Spotless Days Have
Occurred 88 Of The Time So Far This Year And
That Is A Higher Percentage Compared To That Of
2008.
In 2008, Spot-free Days Occurred 73 Of The Time.
That Is Less Frequent And Less Often Than That
Noted So Far This Year.
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This Sunspot Minimum Began In 2004, But Has Been
Most Persistent Since 2006. Last Years Sunspot
Count Was The Lowest Since 1913. In Order For
This Deep Solar Minimum To Be More Significant
Than That Of 1913 The Sun Will Have To Be Quiet
Most Of This Year. Since 2004 There Have Been
615 Days Without Sunspots And The Average Sunspot
Minimum Usually Lasts 485 Days.
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La Nina To El Nino Negative PDO Neutral AMO Neg.
QBO
Neutral To El Nino Neutral PDO Neutral AMO
El Nino Positive PDO Neutral AMO Neg. To Pos. QBO
El Nino To La Nina Positive PDO Neutral AMO
Spring Seasons Following A Sunspot Minimum Tend
To Generate A Normal Precipitation Bias In Texas,
Colorado And Georgia. There Is Also A Tendency
For Midwest Rainfall To Be Lighter Than Usual
Neutral ENSO Negative PDO Positive AMO
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Spring Seasons Of Sunspot Minimum Years Tend To
Be Wetter Than Usual In The Southeastern States
When ENSO And PDO Are Neutral. Positive PDO
Years Generate Less Rain.
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El Nino Neutral PDO Neutral AMO Neg. QBO
El Nino Positive PDO Neutral AMO
El Nino Positive PDO Neutral AMO Neg. To Pos. QBO
La Nina Negative PDO Neutral AMO
Summer Precipitation In Years Following A Sunspot
Minimum Have Tended To Be Wet In Illinois And
Missouri While Normal Rainfall Occurs Often In
South Dakota And Minnesota.
Neutral ENSO Negative PDO Positive AMO
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Summers Of Sunspot Minimum Years Tend To Be
Wetter Than Usual In The Northern U.S. Plains.
La Nina and Neutral ENSO Summers Of
Sunspot Minimum Years with Slightly Negative PDO
Trend Drier Than Usual in Midwest.
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El Nino Neutral PDO Neutral AMO Neg. QBO
El Nino Positive PDO Neutral AMO
El Nino Positive PDO Neutral AMO Neg. To Pos. QBO
La Nina Negative PDO Neutral AMO
One Of The Largest And Strongest Correlations For
Years Following A Sunspot Minimum Is A Tendency
For Cool Summers In The Northern Half Of The
Nation.
Neutral ENSO Negative PDO Positive AMO
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Summers Of Sunspot Minimum Years Tend To Be
Warmer Than Usual In The Southern U.S. Plains.
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KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

• SUNSPOTS
• ENSO La Nina/El Nino
• PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
• LONG TERM CYCLES

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SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
7-Day Average Centered on April 22, 2009
NOAA
Sea Surface Temperatures In The Eastern Pacific
Ocean Have Been Warming Back To A More Normal
Range After Two Years Of Coolness.
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upwelling
Eastward Moving Warm Water In The Subsurface
Equatorial Pacific Ocean May Lead To El Nino Like
Conditions Later This Summer. Once A Kelvin Wave
Passes Scientists Will Watch Water Temperatures
For Signs Of Additional Warming. If The Trend
Continues The Potential For El Nino Will Rise
Greatly.
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El Nino
La Nina
Other Years In Which La Nina Was Weakening Led To
Weak El Nino Conditions By Late In The Year With
Only 1974-75 Reverting Back To La Nina
Conditions. There Are Some Forecasters Who
Believe The Parallel With 1974-75 Is Stronger
Than With Other Patterns, But Changing Sea
Surface Temperatures Suggest It Will Be Hard (Not
Impossible) For La Nina To Return This Year.
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FORECAST PROBLEM NUMBER ONE
Is El Nino Coming Or Will We Move Into Neutral
ENSO Conditions For The Balance Of This Year.
El Nino
La Nina
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NOAAs CFS Model Accurately Predicted The Return
Of La Nina This Winter And Now It Is Suggesting
Neutral ENSO The Remainder Of Spring And Weak El
Nino Conditions Late This Year.
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JULY - SEPTEMBER EL NINO PRECIPITATION BIAS
Below Normal Above Normal
Cotton Areas That Might Be Impacted By El Nino
Include India, China, Central Africa, Australia
South America And Parts Of The United States. The
Impacts Would Be Highly Variable.
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TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR NEUTRAL ENSO YEARS
COOL
COOL
COOL
WARM
WARM
WARM
W
WARM
WARM
WARM
W
The Odds Favor Neutral ENSO Conditions This
Spring And Possibly Early This Summer. The
Anomalies Shown Above Are Typical Of ENSO Neutral
Summers. Remember ENSO Is Not The Only Factor
Controlling Summer Weather. A Close Watch On The
Sunspot Bias, PDO And AMO Is Also Warranted.
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PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR NEUTRAL ENSO YEARS
D
W
W
W
W
W
W
D
W
WET
WET
WET
DRY
WET
D
DRY
DRY
W
DRY
DRY
D
D
D
W
D
DRY
W
W
DRY
WET
WET
W
D
DRY
D
W
W
W
W
The Odds Favor Neutral ENSO Conditions This
Spring And Possibly Early This Summer. The
Anomalies Shown Above Are Typical Of ENSO Neutral
Springs. Remember ENSO Is Not The Only Factor
Controlling Summer Weather. A Close Watch On The
Sunspot Bias, PDO And AMO Is Also Warranted.
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PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EL NINO
YEARS
COOL
COOL
COOL
W
C
WARM
weak event
weak event
weak event
WET
WET
WET
WET
DRY
DRY
WET
WET
WET
DRY
WET
DRY
WET
WET
WET
weak event
weak event
weak event
If El Nino Develops Later This Year These Are
The Anomalies That Would Likely Result. The Odds
Of El Nino Conditions Occurring Before July Are
Very Low. Remember El Nino Is Interacting With
Other Atmospheric Patterns Which Leaves Room For
Some Deviations From Trend.
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PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR EL NINO
YEARS
W
W
C
C
WARM
W
weak event
weak event
weak event
DRY
DRY
WET
DRY
DRY
W
DRY
WET
WET
DRY
DRY
WET
WET
WET
DRY
DRY
weak event
weak event
weak event
If El Nino Evolves This Year It Is Most Likely
To Occur In Late Summer Or Autumn. These Are The
Anomalies That Might Associate With Such An
Event. Remember El Nino Is Interacting With
Other Atmospheric Patterns Which Leaves Room For
Some Deviations From Trend.
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KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

• SUNSPOTS
• ENSO La Nina/EL Nino
• PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
• LONG TERM CYCLES

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PHASES OF PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
Positive Or Warm Phase
Negative Or Cool Phase
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures
Winter Season
Winter Season
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Warm
Negative PDO
Warm
COOL
Warm
Warm
COOL
COOL
Warm
Warm
Warm
Warm
Warm
Neutral ENSO
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KEY INFLUENCES ON 2008-09 WEATHER

• SUNSPOTS
• ENSO La Nina
• PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)
• LONG TERM CYCLES

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PALMER DROUGHT INDEX
AUGUST 2007
AUGUST 2008
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Palmer Drought Index
April 25, 2009
Todays Palmer Drought Index Is Most Similar To
That Of 1973 And Less Like That of 1991. The
Moisture Abundance Is Unlike Any Of The Years
That Preceded Midwest Dryness Implying That
Dryness in 2009 May Be A Difficult Accomplishment.
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TOO WET?
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OFFICIAL LONG RANGE OUTLOOK
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Last Week Coolest Driest East
Wet And Cool Conditions Are Expected In Many
Areas Over The Next 30 Days With The Wettest
Conditions Shifting North In June. The Northern
Plains Will Experience Some Improving Weather
This Month.
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Weather In The Midwest So Far This Spring Has
Remained Wetter Further South Than Originally
Predicted. The Change Resulted From Stronger And
More Persistent Cold Air Surges And A Persistence
Of The Feature Will Perpetuate Some Planting
Delays Deep Into May. Areas Shown In Yellow On
The Map Above Will Encounter Some Additional
Periodic Planting Delay In May, But Will Likely
See Improved Field Progress Potential Late In The
Month And On Into June. The Northern Plains Will
See Some Periods Of Improving Weather In May, But
Will Likely Turn Wet Again In June.
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Neutral ENSO Conditions Will Prevail For A While
And There Is Some Potential For El Nino Like
Conditions To Evolve Later In The Year. That
Means Naturally Prevailing Weather Patterns Will
Take Control Of The Nation. Those Prevailing
Patterns Include A Wet Weather Bias In The
Northern Plains And Timely Rainfall In Many Other
Areas. The Restricted Early Summer Rainfall In
The Central Plains And Lower Midwest Will Not Be
Nearly As Threatening As Suggested Because Of
Timely Rainfall And An Absence Of Persistent Hot
Weather. Late Summer Will Trend Cooler And That
Will Generate More Routine Showers And
Thunderstorms For Much Of The Nations Crop
Region. The End Result Will Be Mostly Fine Summer
Crop Development With The Possible Exception Of
The Cooler Than Usual Conditions.
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Some Of The Features That Will Stand Out This
Summer Include The Potential For Cooler Than
Usual Temperatures In Many Northern And Central
Crop Areas And The Timeliness Of Showers And
Thunderstorms. A Reduction In Tropical Cyclones
Impacting The Southeastern States Is Now Being
Suggested Due To The Possible Development Of El
Nino Late In The Year.
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Florida, Alabama, Georgia And The Carolinas May
Be More Frequently Influenced By Tropical Cyclone
Activity In 2009 Than Other U.S. Coastal States.
Texas May Also Be Impacted, But To A Lesser
Degree Of Significance. Late August Through
Mid-September Will Be Stormiest. Tropical Cyclone
Numbers May Be Reduced If El Nino Evolves
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2008-09 WORLD OUTLOOK
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The Latest Vegetative Health Index Continues To
Favorable Crop Conditions Except in Shanxi Where
There Is A Little Plant Moisture Stress Under Way.
Rain Has Been Abundant In Eastern Chinas Crop
Areas The Past Two Months. Soil Conditions Are
Rated Mostly Favorable, Although There Are Some
Dryness Issues In A Small Part Of Shanxi And
Hebei. The Northeastern Provinces Have Been
Especially Wetter Than Usual Recently Favoring
Summer Crop Production Potentials.
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Soil Conditions Are Not Far From Normal In
Eastern Chinas Main Agricultural Areas. However,
There Is Some Dryness, Especially In The
Southeastern Provinces, Which Is Typical Of La
Nina Years. Dryness In The Korean Peninsula And
Neighboring Areas Of Northeastern China Should
Not Last Long In The Spring, But May Return
During The Summer.
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Chinas Late Spring Is Expected To Be A Little
Cooler Than Usual In The Northeastern Corner Of
The Nation While Warmer Than Usual In Some
Northwestern Crop Areas East Of Tibet. Rainfall
Will Be Less Than Usual In East-Central Parts Of
The Nation, But There Will Still Be Timely
Rainfall To Support Crops. Summer 2009 Will Be
Seasonably Moist Over Eastern Portions Of The
Nation, But Some Western Crop Areas Will Be A
Little Drier Than Usual. There May Also Be Some
Pockets Of Dryness In The Far Northeast.
Temperatures May Be A Little Cool In East-Central
Parts Of The Nation.
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Indias Monsoon Rainfall Will Be A Function Of
ENSO. El Nino Conditions Are Possible Late This
Summer And If They Do Emerge, Late Season
Rainfall In India Will Decrease Below Average.
The Start Of The Rainy Season Is Expected To Be
Just Fine And Crops Should Perform Relatively
Well. The Best Rain Amounts And Coverage Will
Occur If El Nino Fails To Evolve.
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VEGEGATIVE HEALTH INDEX COMPARISON TO LAST YEAR
April 26, 2009
Big Changes In Cotton Field Conditions Have
Occurred This Year Over Those Of Last Year.
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan
And Turkey Are All Experiencing Better Rainfall
And Soil Moisture This Year Over That Of Last
Year. The Implication Of This Is Better Crop
Development Potential, Although Planting Has
Likely Been Slowed By The Wet And Mild Bias.
April 27, 2008
NOAA
NOAA
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April 26, 2009
A Large Part Of Europe And The Western CIS Grain
And Oilseed Production Region Is Experiencing A
Decline In Early Spring Weather Conditions
Relative To That Of Last Year At This Time.
However, Changes Are Expected In Many Areas Over
The Next Few Weeks. Notice The Big Improvement In
Crop Conditions For Turkey, Uzbekistan,
Turkmenistan And Neighboring Areas.
April 26, 2009
CHANGE IN VEGETATIVE HEALTH INDEX FROM LAST YEAR
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CHANGE IN VEGETATIVE HEALTH INDEX FROM LAST
YEAR
Bahia
Mato Grosso
Africa Franc Zone
April 26, 2009
From NOAA
April 26, 2009
Central African Republic Will Need Better Rain
This Season As Will Parts Of Texas. Dryness In
Argentina, Paraguay And Center South Brazil Will
Favor Harvest Progress. Rain In Bahia May Hurt
Fiber Quality And Mato Grosso Is Starting To Dry
Down.
April 26, 2009
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WEATHER OUTLOOK 2009 PRESENTED BY World
Weather, Inc.
WEBSITE -- http//www.worldweather.cc
Telephone [phone] EMAIL ------
worldweather_at_bizkc.rr.com Fax
Number 913-383-1198
52
LONG TERM TRENDS IN SUNSPOT NUMBERS
Sunspot numbers always rise and fall over a 10-
to 11-year cycle (from min to max and back to min
again. However, longer term trends in sunspot
numbers can be detected over several solar
cycles. There is a relationship between sunspot
counts (which represents radiant energy reaching
the earth) and earths temperature. Net cooling
in hemispheric temperatures seems to occur
following a major peak in sunspot counts over
multiple sunspot cycles. The implication here is
that at least some cooling is coming soon.
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GLOBAL WARMING MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY INFLUENCED BY
MAN. SOLAR RADIATION AND WATER VAPOR MAY HAVE
FAR MORE INFLUENCE
This Chart Shows The Association With Earth
Temperatures And Solar Radiation. When Sunspot
Counts Rise The Earth Warms Because Of Greater
Radiant Energy Reaching The Planet. When Solar
Radiation Decreases The Earth Tends To Cool.
These Patterns Tend To Occur With A Lag Time Of
25-30 Years. Earth Temperatures Lag The Extremes
In Radiant Energy.
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LONG TERM TRENDS IN SUNSPOT NUMBERS
1986 to 2007
1929 to 1962
1874 to 1907
Shown Here Are Some Of The More Significant
Trends In Sunspot Cycles. Make Note Of These
Trends And See How They Correlate With Changes In
Earth Temperatures On The Next Chart.
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GLOBAL WARMING MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY INFLUENCED BY
MAN. SOLAR RADIATION AND WATER VAPOR MAY HAVE
FAR MORE INFLUENCE
1874 To 1907
1929 To 1962
1962 To 1973
Notice The Change In Earth Temperatures Shortly
After There Is A Change In Sunspot Counts. There
Seems To Be A Correlation Between The Two Events.
If Our Theory Is Correct Cooling Should Begin In
Atmospheric Temperatures In The Next Few Years To
Correspond With The Declining Sunspot Numbers
Since The Last Peak In 1986. There Is Often A
20-25 Year Lag In The Two Cycles. Cooling May
Only Be Short Term Since The Long Term Trend Has
Been For Warming Since the 1600s
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GLOBAL WARMING MAY ONLY BE SLIGHTLY INFLUENCED BY
MAN. SOLAR RADIATION AND WATER VAPOR MAY HAVE
FAR MORE INFLUENCE
One Last Thing To Note On This Chart Is That
There Has Been An Uptrend In Earth Temperatures
Since The Little Ice Age In The 1600s. Even
Though Man Has Put Much Junk Into The Atmosphere
We Still Believe The Influence Of Man On Gods
Planet Has Been Minor. Certainly There Is Need To
Clean Up The Environment, But Blaming Man For
All Of The Climate Change Seems A Little Out Of
Place.
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PDO PHASES AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE