Market Mechanisms for Environmental Performance

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Market Mechanisms for Environmental Performance
3 February 2004 Strategic Environmental
Management - ESM 210 Bren School of Environmental
Science and Management
Adam Davis Associates www.eprisolutions.com/env
ironment
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Introduction
Strategic Environmental Management

• Sustainability in theory
• Natural Step
• 4 System Conditions
• Sustainability Quartet
• Energy Efficiency
• Materials Efficiency
• Toxics Reduction
• Land Use Planning
• Competitive Advantage through Environmental
  Performance

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Introduction
Strategic Environmental Management

• From theory to practice
• The Leaves of the Tree
• Recycling
• Energy Efficiency
• Pollution Prevention
• Green Building
• Socially Responsible Investment
• ISO certification
• Regulatory Compliance
• Life Cycle Analysis, etc.
• These are relevant in the context of IPAT
• Impact, however, means impact to productive
  ecosystems that keep us alive.

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Introduction
Strategic Environmental Management

• Ecosystem Services Theory
• References
• Natures Services, Daily et al
• The New Economy of Nature, Daily and Ellison
• Environmental Markets, Chichilnisky and Heal
• Productive ecosystems provide services of
  essential benefit to human societies. These
  services have financial value.

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Introduction
Strategic Environmental Management

• Ecosystem Services theory, in practice
• Supply and demand financial value
• However demand by private parties for public
  goods is mediated primarily by law (to a lesser
  extent by strategy and ethics)
• Therefore Financial value depends on policy and
  enforcement

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What are Eco-Assets?
Background
Eco-assets are environmental features that
provide financial value to private landowners
when they are maintained in,or restored to,
their natural state.

• Wetlands
• Forests
• Endangered species
• Rivers watersheds
• Riparian and upland habitat

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The Value Proposition
Strategic Environmental Management

• Companies can benefit by
• Lowering compliance costs
• Increasing revenue
• Increasing land value
• Increasing brand value
• Decreasing regulatory and stakeholder pressure
• Specific project opportunities are found in
• Wetlands and stream mitigation
• Carbon sequestration
• Conservation Banking for TE species

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From Liability to Asset
State federal environmental regulations

• Natural resources
• Water
• Forests
• Air

• CWA
• ESA
• Kyoto

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Examples of Eco-Asset Markets
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Established Markets

• There are established markets for the trading of
  credits associated with eco-assets
• air quality (SOx, NOx)
• wetland banking,
• conservation banking (in California)

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Emerging Markets

• Other markets are rapidly emerging
• carbon sequestration
• national conservation banking
• water quality credits
• aquifer recharge

Major players including John Hancock, Mitsubishi,
Temple Inland, BP, Shell, and many others are
early entrants in these markets.
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Carbon Sequestration Market

• Forests, grasslands and agricultural lands store
  large amounts of carbon
• Changes in land management can increase carbon
  storage over time
• GHG emissions credits can be created and traded,
  based on these changes in land management
  activities

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Habitat Species Market

• A mitigation bank is a wetland or other habitat
  that has been preserved, enhanced, restored, or
  created for the purpose of generating credits
  that can be used to comply with environmental
  regulations.

Banks sell these agency-approved credits to
developers who need to mitigate the impacts of
their projects. Currently, there are two types of
mitigation banks

• Wetland banks
• Conservation (species) banks

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A Project Example
Strategic Environmental Management

• 4,200 Acres of Reclaimed Grasslands
• Scenario 1 Continue Managing as Pasture
• Scenario 2 Develop Mixed Oak-Hickory Forest,
  Manage for Timber
• Scenario 3 Develop Mixed Oak-Hickory Forest,
  Manage for Timber and Carbon Sequestration,
  Wetlands and Species credit development

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Project Financial Analysis
Strategic Environmental Management

• To analyze and compare on a financial basis
  different land management options, including
  eco-assets development.
• Three types of eco-asset investment projects were
  analyzed, and compared to a base case.
• Forest carbon sequestration
• Wetland stream mitigation
• Endangered species conservation banking

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Assumptions Input Data
Strategic Environmental Management

• Assumptions
• Corporate Financial
• Discount rate(s)
• Effective corporate tax rates
• Analytic Assumptions
• Sensitivity analysis parameters
• Scenario definitions
• Optionality parameters
• Market opening values parameters

• Project-level Input Data
• Financial
• Eco-asset credit prices and risk
• Commodity prices
• Annual capital OM costs
• Optional eco-asset management
• Eco-asset related commodity production
• Expected timing
• Expected production quantities

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Risk Uncertainty
Strategic Environmental Management

• Automated sensitivity analysis of critical
  variables
• Real discount rate
• Initial eco-asset prices
• Price uncertainty
• Annual real appreciation rate
• Expected eco-asset production levels
• Automated scenario analysis compares a default
  scenario with three user-defined alternatives
• Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertain variables
• Key variables can be defined as probability
  distributions rather than single best guess
  estimates
• Results are shown as ranges of forecast values
• Simulations include 1,000s of individual trials

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Discounted Cash Flow Methodology
Strategic Environmental Management

• Real discount rate 7.6
• Annual cost and revenue estimates assumed pre-tax
  dollars
• Sensitivity analyses for credit prices, number of
  credits, real discount rate
• Inputs to model included
• Project costs
• Number of credits
• Price of credits
• Credit production schedule
• Credit sales schedule

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Scenario 1 Pasture Results
Carbon Sequestration

• Project Duration 70 years
• PV Costs 27,595 (7/acre)
• PV Revenues 350,040 (83/acre)
• PV Net Income 322,445 (76/acre)

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Scenario 2 Timber Only Assumptions
Carbon Sequestration

• Project Duration 70 Years
• Forest Management Regime
• Entire Site Planted to Trees in Year 1
• Selective Harvest in Year 50 Yields 2 MBF/acre
• Final Harvest in Year 70 Yields 6 MBF/acre
• Costs
• Year 1 Costs 1,302,000 (310/acre)
• Annual Management Costs 0.50/acre

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Scenario 2 Timber Only Results
Carbon Sequestration

• PV Costs 1,236,087 (294/acre)
• PV Revenues 145,396 (35/acre)
• PV Net Income -1,090,690 (-260/acre)

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Scenario 3 Timber and Carbon Assumptions
Carbon Sequestration

• Project Duration 70 Years
• Forest Management Regime Same as for Timber
  Only Case
• Costs Same as for Timber Only Case
• Carbon Production Schedule Used Birdseys
  Carbon Storage Tables
• Price of CO2e 5/ton

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Scenario 3 Timber and Carbon Results
Carbon Sequestration

• PV Costs 1,236,087 (294/acre)
• PV Revenues 1,014,892 (242/acre)
• PV Net Income -221,195 (-53/acre)
• Average Cost 0.75/Net Ton CO2e

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Carbon Stocks and Flows
Model Demonstration
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Projected Cash Flow
Model Demonstration
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Summary Results - Carbon (1 of 2)
Model Demonstration
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Summary Results - Carbon (2 of 2)
Model Demonstration
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Sensitivity Analysis
Model Demonstration
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Scenario Analysis
Model Demonstration

• Define model scenarios

Note Values shown in red represent changes from
the default values.
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Conservation Banking
Strategic Environmental Management

• Endangered Species Act issues
• 1982 amendments to ESA provided for an
  incidental take of listed species, if a
  landowner provides a long-term commitment to
  species conservation through the development of a
  Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP).
• As of April 10, 2003, 541 HCPs have been
  approved, covering approximately 38 million acres
  and protecting more than 525 endangered or
  threatened species.

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What is Conservation Banking? (1)
Strategic Environmental Management

• Land containing natural resources, which is
  conserved and managed in perpetuity for specified
  listed species and used to offset impacts
  occurring elsewhere to the same natural resource
  values on non-bank lands.
• A private party requesting an incidental take
  permit from FWS can purchase species credits
  from pre-established conservation banks, to
  provide mitigation for the take.

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What is Conservation Banking? (2)
Strategic Environmental Management

• FWS issued conservation banking guidance on May
  2, 2003, to help FWS personnel
• Evaluate the use of conservation banks to meet
  the conservation needs of listed species
• Fulfill the purposes of the ESA and
• Provide consistency and predictability in the
  establishment, use and operation of conservation
  banks.
• There were 10-15 banks in U.S. prior to guidance.
• CA issued banking guidance in 1995. There are
  approximately 50 conservation banks in CA.

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Conservation Bank Components
Strategic Environmental Management

• Credit unit Individuals, breeding pairs (RCW),
  acres (vernal pools), nest site, family unit.
• Service area Area over which the credits can be
  bought or sold. May be entire species range, a
  portion of the range or a watershed.
• Long-term assurances
• Establish a conservation easement or transfer fee
  title so that land is put into conservation in
  perpetuity, even after credits are sold or
  species is delisted.
• Must have a long term management and monitoring
  plan, and funding assurances to ensure habitat is
  maintained for species use.

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FWS Requirements for Conservation Banks

• Credit issuance Must be expressed and measured
  in the same manner as the impacts of the
  development projects that will utilize the bank
• Acres for acres
• Breeding pairs for breeding pairs
• Intact populations for intact populations
• Service territory Area in which bank credits may
  be used to offset project impacts
• Based on conservation needs of species being
  conserved
• Existing FWS recovery areas from recovery plans
• Credits may be sold to projects outside of
  recovery areas if they impact the same species

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'Species B' Project Description
'Species B'

• 9,300 acres in Section A, 2,700 acres in Section
  B
• Provides summer habitat for 'Species B'
• Requires development of Habitat Conservation Plan
• Requires revisions to existing forest management
  regime

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Endangered Species Project Description
Strategic Environmental Management

• Potential habitat for Indiana Bat Approximately
  12,000 acres
• Provides summer habitat
• Requires development of Habitat Conservation Plan
• Requires revisions to existing forest management
  regime

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'Species B' Project Assumptions
'Species B'

• Project Duration 70 Years
• Number of Credits 1,200
• Credit Price 50,000/credit
• Credit sales phased over life of project, based
  on tree development

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'Species B' Credit Estimation Methodology
'Species B'

• Credit is defined as one primary roost tree,
  supporting 30-400 female members of 'Species B'
• Density of roost trees assumed to be 1 per 10
  acres
• Total suitable habitat 12,000 acres
• Roost trees assumed to be 70 years old, credits
  awarded as forest matures

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'Species B' Project Results
'Species B'

• PV Costs 948,666 (77/acre)
• PV Revenues 1,895,563 (158/acre)
• PV Net Income 976,896 (81/acre)

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Wetland/Stream Mitigation Projects
Wetland/Stream Mitigation

• 'Creek C' 280-500 acre Stream Corridor in
  Section A
• 'Hollow D' 350-500 acre micro watershed in
  Section B
• Combination of preservation, enhancement,
  restoration and creation of wetland, riparian and
  upland areas to generate credits

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'Creek C' Project Assumptions
Wetland/Stream Mitigation

• Project Duration 18 Years
• Number of Credits 145
• Credit Price 15,000/credit
• 30 of credits (43.5 credits) sold in year 3,
  after project approval
• Remainder of credits sold at rate of 6.8/year

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'Creek C' Project Results
Wetland/Stream Mitigation

• PV Costs 894,396 (2,181/acre)
• PV Revenues 1,241,379 (3,028/acre)
• PV Net Income 346,983 (846/acre)

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Per-Acre Comparison of Eco-Asset Projects
Strategic Environmental Management
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Value to Private Landowners
Strategic Environmental Management

• Time to permit/Cost to permit
• Maximize value of under-utilized commercial real
  estate assets
• Strategic approach to land disposition issues
• Brand and reputation issues
• Aligns profit making motivation with
  conservation turns liabilities into assets.

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Value to Society
Strategic Environmental Management

• Facilitates exchange or conversion of many small
  pieces of habitat for large, contiguous tracts of
  land.
• Public goods are protected and restored with
  private funds.
• Price signals begin to inform primary extractive
  enterprises
• Ultimately, this approach begins to capture the
  financial value of the ecosystem services
  provided through conservation and restoration

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Conclusions

• Mitigation Banking is an imperfect example of
  Applied Ecosystem Services Theory
• Still, The best is the enemy of the good.
• Regulatory enforcement is essential for markets
  to develop for these public goods (the cap in
  the cap and trade approach).
• A disciplined approach to investment is
  necessary caveat emptor.
• New flexible mechanisms like conservation banking
  are more than compliance programs they set a
  precedent and establish a principle
  Conservation is valuable.