Complexity, Information, Networks and Evolution

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Complexity, Information, Networks and Evolution

• Cesar A. Hidalgo

Advisor A.-L.
Barabasi Committee Kathie
Newman Christopher Kolda Zoltan
Toroczkai External Chair Nitesh Chawla
PhD Defense Notre Dame, IN. July 3rd 2008
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Complex Systems
Components
-Large number of parts -Properties of parts are
heterogeneously distributed -Parts interact
through a host of non-trivial interactions
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EMERGENCE
An aggregate system is not equivalent to the sum
of its parts. Peoples action can contribute to
ends which are no part of their intentions.
(Smith) Local rules can produce emergent global
behavior For example The global match between
supply and demand More is different
(Anderson) There is emerging behavior in
systems that escape local explanations.
(Anderson)
Murray Gell-Mann You do not need Something
more to Get something more TED Talk (2007)
Phillip Anderson More is DifferentScience
177393396(1972)
Adam Smith The Wealth of Nations(1776)
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Sewall Wright 1932
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Information Revealing Mechanism (IRM)
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Centralized Decision Making Process Theoretically
Centered IRM
Mental Models


John Holland Hidden Order Helix Books (1995)
JH Miller SE PageComplex Adaptive
SystemsPrinceton University Press(2007)
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Labor unions
weather
technology
Cotton (USD cents/pound)
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How to represent the extracted information
How to channel the information back on the system
How to extract information of a complex system
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CA Hidalgo C Rodriguez-Sickert Physica A (2008)
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Persistence
Perseverance
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CA Hidalgo C Rodriguez-Sickert Physica A (2008)
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Power-Law Decay
Core-Periphery Structure
T-1/4
CA Hidalgo C Rodriguez-Sickert Physica A (2008)
DL Morgan MB Neal, P Carder. Social Networks
199-25 (1996)
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Degree (k)
Clustering (C)
Reciprocity (R)
CA Hidalgo C Rodriguez-Sickert Physica A (2008)
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Multivariate Analysis (Node Level)
Linear Regression
p 0.0598 C 0.0122 k 0.3626 r 0.0015 Age
0.0009 Gender 0.2506
Correlations and Partial Correlations
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Reality
Conserved Not Conserved
Conserved A B
Not Conserved C D
Test
Prediction Accuracy A/(AB) SensitivityA/(AC)
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b1.75
Brockmann, Hufnagel, Geisel Nature (2006)
MC Gonzalez, CA Hidalgo, A-L Barabasi Nature
(2008)
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MC Gonzalez, CA Hidalgo, A-L Barabasi Nature
(2008)
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br1.65
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No Trade 2x105x510x15x1 202510560
Trade 2x2010x1 401050
David Ricardo
On the Principles of Political Economy and
Taxation (1817)
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David Ricardo
On the Principles of Political Economy and
Taxation (1817)
CA Hidalgo, R Hausmann Development Alternatives
(2008)
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CA Hidalgo, B Klinger, A-L Barabasi, R
Hausmann.Science (2007)
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Malaysia
1985
2000
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China
1975
1985
2000
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Mexico
1985
2000
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CA Hidalgo, B Klinger, A-L Barabasi, R
Hausmann.Science (2007)
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How to represent the extracted information
How to channel the information back on the system
How to extract information of a complex system
How is the systems affected by this information
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Summary
The evolution of complex systems is constrained
by the large number of possible configurations
and by our ability to loop data back into the
system. To help a systems evolve we need to
find ways to extract, represent and
channelsystems data. Here we discussed three
examples in which large amounts of data are
collected and represented 1st The structure
of a network is coupled to its dynamics and the
local rule of reciprocity explains an important
part of that coupling. 2nd There are well
defined statistical regularities describing human
mobility. 3rd The product space can be used to
study the evolution of economic development in a
way in which the productive externalities of
goods are part of the development process.
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Graduate School
In Preparation
P Wang, MC Gonzalez, CA Hidalgo, A-L Barabasiin
preparation
CA Hidalgo, N Blumm, A-L Barabasi, N
Christakis,in preparation
CA Hidalgo, R Hausmannin preparation
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Acknowledgments
CCNR
Friends in South Bend
Friends from PUC
Professors Zoltan Toroczkai Kathie
Newman Christopher Kolda Nitesh Chawla
Friends in Boston
Suzanne Aleva Ricardo HausmannShari
Herman Alejandra Castro Francisco Claro
My family
CID
Elementary middle school friends
My Extended Family
High-School Friends
Carlos Rodriguez-Sickert