Steve Creech

1
NAFCOM 2004

• Steve Creech
• Sharon Winn

2
Agenda

• NAFCOM 2004 Major Updates
• NAFCOM 2005 Plans
• Probabilistic Cost Risk Analysis Capability

3
NAFCOM (1 of 2)

• Parametric cost model based on 122 NASA and Air
  Force space flight hardware projects
• Launch Vehicles
• Robotic Satellites
• Human Rated Spacecraft
• Space Shuttle
• Two types of Cost Estimating Relationships
  (CERs)
• User selected analogy
• Complexity Generator
• Can thru-put costs from other models

4
NAFCOM (2 of 2)

• Complexity Generator CERs
• Multi-variable equations based on sophisticated
  statistical analysis of the NAFCOM data base
• Identified 73 key technical and programmatic cost
  drivers, such as
• Funding availability
• Risk management
• Integration complexity
• Pre-Development study
• New design
• Weight
• Structural efficiency
• Output Power
• Number of Transmitters
• Stabilization type
• Etc.

5
Cost Credibility Approach
Communication, consistency, detailed planning and
control, independent validation
Disciplined Process
Benchmarking, Best Practices
Find out where we are
Life Cycle Cost Estimates
Innovation
Improve current tools Develop new
capabilities Implement CAIV approach

• Lessons learned from NAFCOM Benchmarking with
  Contractors
• Benchmark at total level 20 average
  overestimate
• Overestimated core vehicle
• Under-estimated avionics, upper stages

6
Complexity Generator Improvements

• Reviewed all subsystem CERs
• Modified all the complexity generator equations
• Added new cost drivers (e.g., weight/volume ratio
  added to ECLS CER)
• Stratified database according to mission type
• Removed a few statistical outliers
• Incorporated launch year (year of technology)
• Changed technical rating definitions
• Removed old missions (pre-1976) for some
  subsystems (e.g., CCDH)
• Changes improved goodness-of-fit statistics
• R2 improved 8 on average
• Standard error improved 22 on average

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Complexity Generator Improvements (cont.)

• Re-worked small sample size CERs, paying special
  attention to applicability of missions in the
  database
• Auxiliary Propulsion/OMS , MPS
• Crew Accommodations
• Environmental Control and Life Support
• Added new structures and mechanisms component CER
• Designed to estimate structures and mechanisms
  component costs of large launch vehicles
  (interstage, intertank, tanks, skirt, actuators,
  hydraulics, etc.)

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Complexity Generator Improvements (cont.)

• Performed sensitivity analyses on new complexity
  generators as a sanity check
• Developed more detailed test-cases
• Focused on CER applicability

9
NAFCOM 2004 Upgrades Functionality Improvements

• Fully integrated version of SOCM
• Probabilistic cost analysis capability
• Ability to perform stage level and global cost
  trades
• More easily modify WBS templates
• Database re-escalated using latest NASA New Start
  Inflation Indices

10
NAFCOM 2005 Plans

• Continuation of Risk development
• Data Collection
• Analysis of New Design and TRL drivers
• Proposal cost estimate vs. estimate with
  changes/risk
• Incorporation of advanced regression methods
• Investigation of additional technical cost
  drivers
• Investigation of alternate approaches to estimate
  wraps
• Investigation of alternate approaches to estimate
  System Test Hardware
• Utilization of Process-Based Model data and
  relationships in NAFCOM
• Prince bias dials
• Launch vehicle ground ops model integration into
  NAFCOM
• Build custom WBS templates
• Others?