Title: Population, Poverty and Development: Review and Research Gaps
1Population, Poverty and Development Review and
Research Gaps
- Aniceto C. Orbeta, Jr.
- Philippine Institute for Development Studies
2Outline
- Population and Development A comparison of
Philippines and Thailand - Population and Poverty
- Philippine demographic trends
- Philippine poverty alleviation record
- Links
- Evidence
- Implications for Policy
- Research Gaps
3- Population Development Philippines Thailand
- 1/2
4- Population Development Philippines Thailand
- 2/2
5Population and Sustainable Development Framework
6Review of demographic developments
- Slow fertility decline slower than most
countries in the region (Table 1) - Average performer in mortality (Table 2)
- Continued high population growth higher than
most countries in the region - Implications
- Expect extended years of high youth dependency
- Demographic onus rather than demographic
bonus like East Asian Countries
7Review of poverty alleviation record
- Modest gains from 44.2 in 1985 to 33.7 in 2000
or about 0.7 annually - Number of poor people increased from 4.6 million
in 1985 to 5.14 million in 2000 - Gains are only clear in urban areas (declined by
14 compared to only 4 percentage points in rural
areas between 1985-2000) - Inequality has not improved
- Share of poorest quintile 4.8 (1985) 4.7
(2000) - Share of richest quintile 51.2 (1985) 54.8
(2000) - Gini coefficient 0.47 (1985) 0.51 (2000)
8Family Size and Poverty
- An empirical regularity that poverty incidence is
higher the larger the family size
9Population and poverty links
- Growth Channel (Size of the Pie) Does
demographic change (change in population growth,
fertility, mortality, age structure, etc.)
affects changes in the level and growth of
average attainable well-being per person? - Distribution Channel (Sharing of the Pie) Does
demographic change affects the distribution of
income given attainable well-being per person? - Conversion Channel (Generating actual well-being
from Share of the Pie) Does demographic change
affects the conversion of attainable well-being
per person into actual well-being per person?
10Evidence on the growth channel (Size of the pie)
- Demographic changes (decline in population
growth, fertility, mortality and changing age
distribution) have sizeable impacts on economic
growth account for about half of recorded
economic growth in Southeast Asia, one third in
East Asia - Fertility and mortality effects are offsetting
mortality decline stimulates growth, rise in
fertility attenuates growth this is the primary
reason for the limited effect in earlier analysis
that focus on population growth - In the Philippines, decomposition analysis for
1985-2000 show that economic growth contributes
bigger proportion in reduction of poverty in
cross-country analysis it contributes about one
half
11Evidence on the distribution channel (Sharing of
the pie)
- High fertility skews the distribution of income
against the poor in cross-country analysis in
the Philippines, there is still no direct
evidence but indications are pointing to the same
direction given the limited employment
opportunities generated and the rapidly growing
labor force - The dilution effect appears to be not very strong
- On the acquisition effect, there are mixed
results on the impact of an additional child on
labor force participation of fathers but this
leads to a decline of mothers labor time and an
increase in her home time
12Evidence on the conversion channel (Enjoyment
from share of the pie)
- Doubts on whether poor families can achieve
their desired family size given poorer access to
FP services, particularly for the Philippines - There are evidence on both sides of the economies
of scale argument some economies of scale on
food consumption but congestion effects on
housing - Clear deleterious effects of large family on
investments in human capital - Clear increase in vulnerability with larger
family size
13Implications for policy 1/2
- Demographics play an important role in poverty
alleviation better control of fertility should
be an important component of poverty alleviation - While there maybe reasons why the poor have large
families (e.g., to contribute to total family
income, as a form of social and old-age
security), it will be difficult, particularly for
the Philippines, to sort which ones are due to
lack of control over fertility and which ones are
due to preferences better control of fertility
comparable to the rich is needed to clarify this - There are intergenerational impact of current
fertility choices primarily via lower investments
in human capital this is the main avenue of
intergenerational transmission of poverty need
for pro-active subsidy and better targeting of
public services, e.g. education and health, which
are in themselves investments with high social
returns apart from indirect returns through
demographic changes
14Implications for policy 2/2
- Importance of consistent economic growth is
well-established still the primary strategy of
development, in general, and for poverty
alleviation, in particular, for the Philippines
a conducive economic environment is needed to
translate potential benefits from demographic
changes - With globalization, lower fertility is needed to
benefit from opportunities at the aggregate and
household levels, and to lessen the vulnerability
of households to economic shocks - There are enough justifications for government to
promote a small family size norm and help couples
achieve their desired fertility
15Research Agenda Population, Poverty and
Development
- Improve upon the current broad brush attribution
of the interaction between population and poverty
for the Philippines. There is a need to continue
to clarify the interactions, at the macro,
community and household levels in the Philippine
context. The objective is to find more effective
policy handles - Poverty, fertility management and preferences and
its implications at the household level
16Thank You
17- Fertility and Mortality in Selected ASEAN
Countries
18- Poverty and Inequality, 1985-2000
19Family planning practice by socioeconomic class -
1/4
20Family planning practice by socioeconomic class
Contraception -2/4
21Family planning practice by socioeconomic class
FP, BF, BC Advice -3/4
22Family planning practice by socioeconomic class
Unmet Need -4/4
23Population Growth and Human Capital Accumulation
Household Level 1/2
- Survey of developing country evidence
- King (1987)
- Children in large families perform less well in
school - Children in large families have poorer health,
lower survival probabilities, and are less
developed physically - Lloyd (1994)
- Resource dilution with each child getting smaller
share of family resources including income, time
and maternal nutrition - Diminished access to public resources, such as
health and education - Unequal distribution of resources among siblings
24Population Growth and Human Capital Accumulation
Household Level 2/2
- Evidence from Philippine data
- High fertility negatively affects school
participation of older children (13-17 years old)
although it does not affect school participation
of younger children (7-12 years old) (Herrin
1983, Bauer and Racelis, 1992) - Large negative impact on boys (DeGraff et al.,
1993) - Expenditure per child is also negatively affected
(Bankosta and Evenson, 1978)
25Family Size and Vulnerability
- Using the 1997 FIES and the 1998 and 1999 APIS,
it was found that 46 of the family remained to
be non-poor (N) while 22 remained to be poor (P)
throughout the period. Interestingly, as one goes
from households who remained to be poor to
households who remained to be non-poor, the
family size declines (Reyes, 2002).
26Poverty Decomposition Analysis
27Nothing follows!!!