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Population, Poverty and Development: Review and Research Gaps

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Title: Population, Poverty and Development: Review and Research Gaps


1
Population, Poverty and Development Review and
Research Gaps
  • Aniceto C. Orbeta, Jr.
  • Philippine Institute for Development Studies

2
Outline
  • Population and Development A comparison of
    Philippines and Thailand
  • Population and Poverty
  • Philippine demographic trends
  • Philippine poverty alleviation record
  • Links
  • Evidence
  • Implications for Policy
  • Research Gaps

3
  • Population Development Philippines Thailand
    - 1/2

4
  • Population Development Philippines Thailand
    - 2/2

5
Population and Sustainable Development Framework
6
Review of demographic developments
  • Slow fertility decline slower than most
    countries in the region (Table 1)
  • Average performer in mortality (Table 2)
  • Continued high population growth higher than
    most countries in the region
  • Implications
  • Expect extended years of high youth dependency
  • Demographic onus rather than demographic
    bonus like East Asian Countries

7
Review of poverty alleviation record
  • Modest gains from 44.2 in 1985 to 33.7 in 2000
    or about 0.7 annually
  • Number of poor people increased from 4.6 million
    in 1985 to 5.14 million in 2000
  • Gains are only clear in urban areas (declined by
    14 compared to only 4 percentage points in rural
    areas between 1985-2000)
  • Inequality has not improved
  • Share of poorest quintile 4.8 (1985) 4.7
    (2000)
  • Share of richest quintile 51.2 (1985) 54.8
    (2000)
  • Gini coefficient 0.47 (1985) 0.51 (2000)

8
Family Size and Poverty
  • An empirical regularity that poverty incidence is
    higher the larger the family size

9
Population and poverty links
  • Growth Channel (Size of the Pie) Does
    demographic change (change in population growth,
    fertility, mortality, age structure, etc.)
    affects changes in the level and growth of
    average attainable well-being per person?
  • Distribution Channel (Sharing of the Pie) Does
    demographic change affects the distribution of
    income given attainable well-being per person?
  • Conversion Channel (Generating actual well-being
    from Share of the Pie) Does demographic change
    affects the conversion of attainable well-being
    per person into actual well-being per person?

10
Evidence on the growth channel (Size of the pie)
  • Demographic changes (decline in population
    growth, fertility, mortality and changing age
    distribution) have sizeable impacts on economic
    growth account for about half of recorded
    economic growth in Southeast Asia, one third in
    East Asia
  • Fertility and mortality effects are offsetting
    mortality decline stimulates growth, rise in
    fertility attenuates growth this is the primary
    reason for the limited effect in earlier analysis
    that focus on population growth
  • In the Philippines, decomposition analysis for
    1985-2000 show that economic growth contributes
    bigger proportion in reduction of poverty in
    cross-country analysis it contributes about one
    half

11
Evidence on the distribution channel (Sharing of
the pie)
  • High fertility skews the distribution of income
    against the poor in cross-country analysis in
    the Philippines, there is still no direct
    evidence but indications are pointing to the same
    direction given the limited employment
    opportunities generated and the rapidly growing
    labor force
  • The dilution effect appears to be not very strong
  • On the acquisition effect, there are mixed
    results on the impact of an additional child on
    labor force participation of fathers but this
    leads to a decline of mothers labor time and an
    increase in her home time

12
Evidence on the conversion channel (Enjoyment
from share of the pie)
  • Doubts on whether poor families can achieve
    their desired family size given poorer access to
    FP services, particularly for the Philippines
  • There are evidence on both sides of the economies
    of scale argument some economies of scale on
    food consumption but congestion effects on
    housing
  • Clear deleterious effects of large family on
    investments in human capital
  • Clear increase in vulnerability with larger
    family size

13
Implications for policy 1/2
  • Demographics play an important role in poverty
    alleviation better control of fertility should
    be an important component of poverty alleviation
  • While there maybe reasons why the poor have large
    families (e.g., to contribute to total family
    income, as a form of social and old-age
    security), it will be difficult, particularly for
    the Philippines, to sort which ones are due to
    lack of control over fertility and which ones are
    due to preferences better control of fertility
    comparable to the rich is needed to clarify this
  • There are intergenerational impact of current
    fertility choices primarily via lower investments
    in human capital this is the main avenue of
    intergenerational transmission of poverty need
    for pro-active subsidy and better targeting of
    public services, e.g. education and health, which
    are in themselves investments with high social
    returns apart from indirect returns through
    demographic changes

14
Implications for policy 2/2
  • Importance of consistent economic growth is
    well-established still the primary strategy of
    development, in general, and for poverty
    alleviation, in particular, for the Philippines
    a conducive economic environment is needed to
    translate potential benefits from demographic
    changes
  • With globalization, lower fertility is needed to
    benefit from opportunities at the aggregate and
    household levels, and to lessen the vulnerability
    of households to economic shocks
  • There are enough justifications for government to
    promote a small family size norm and help couples
    achieve their desired fertility

15
Research Agenda Population, Poverty and
Development
  • Improve upon the current broad brush attribution
    of the interaction between population and poverty
    for the Philippines. There is a need to continue
    to clarify the interactions, at the macro,
    community and household levels in the Philippine
    context. The objective is to find more effective
    policy handles
  • Poverty, fertility management and preferences and
    its implications at the household level

16
Thank You
17
  • Fertility and Mortality in Selected ASEAN
    Countries

18
  • Poverty and Inequality, 1985-2000

19
Family planning practice by socioeconomic class -
1/4
20
Family planning practice by socioeconomic class
Contraception -2/4
21
Family planning practice by socioeconomic class
FP, BF, BC Advice -3/4
22
Family planning practice by socioeconomic class
Unmet Need -4/4
23
Population Growth and Human Capital Accumulation
Household Level 1/2
  • Survey of developing country evidence
  • King (1987)
  • Children in large families perform less well in
    school
  • Children in large families have poorer health,
    lower survival probabilities, and are less
    developed physically
  • Lloyd (1994)
  • Resource dilution with each child getting smaller
    share of family resources including income, time
    and maternal nutrition
  • Diminished access to public resources, such as
    health and education
  • Unequal distribution of resources among siblings

24
Population Growth and Human Capital Accumulation
Household Level 2/2
  • Evidence from Philippine data
  • High fertility negatively affects school
    participation of older children (13-17 years old)
    although it does not affect school participation
    of younger children (7-12 years old) (Herrin
    1983, Bauer and Racelis, 1992)
  • Large negative impact on boys (DeGraff et al.,
    1993)
  • Expenditure per child is also negatively affected
    (Bankosta and Evenson, 1978)

25
Family Size and Vulnerability
  • Using the 1997 FIES and the 1998 and 1999 APIS,
    it was found that 46 of the family remained to
    be non-poor (N) while 22 remained to be poor (P)
    throughout the period. Interestingly, as one goes
    from households who remained to be poor to
    households who remained to be non-poor, the
    family size declines (Reyes, 2002).

26
Poverty Decomposition Analysis
27
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