Great Transition

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Great Transition
The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead
An essay by the Global Scenario Group
www.gsg.org
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Phases of Transition
Stabilization
Indicators of development
Time
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Historical Transitions
Planetary Phase c. 100 years ?
Modern Era c. 1,000 years
Complexity
Early Civilization c. 10,000 years
Stone Age c. 100,000 years
20,000 10,000
0 Years
Before Present
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Accelerated Transitions
Modern Era
Early Civilization
Stone Age
105 104 103 102

Years Before Present
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Social Organization
Nation
City-state
Tribe
105 104 103 102

Years Before Present
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Economic Basis
Industrial capitalism
Settled agriculture
Hunting gathering
105 104 103 102

Years Before Present
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Communication
Printing
Writing
Language
105 104 103 102

Years Before Present
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Planetary Transition

• Global environmental change
• Information technology
• Collapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalism
• WTO, multinationals, Davos Man
• Earth Summit, NGOs, Seattle Man

Global Connectivity
Take-off 1980-2000
1950 2000 2050
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Branch Points
Branch Points

• Sources of Uncertainty
• Ignorance
• Surprise
• Volition

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An Integrated View
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Global Scenarios
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Archetypal Social Visions
COMMENT ON METAPHOR Society is a ship in
troubled waters
SCENARIOS Conventional Worlds Market
Forces Policy Reform Barbarization Breakdow
n Fortress World Great Transitions Eco-commu
nalism New Sustainability Paradigm
ANTECEDENT PHILOSOPHY MOTTO
Onward! Keep the shops and casinos
open. Improve the navigation system. Call a
meeting. Remember the Titanic! Were
sinking exponentially. Beware of mutiny!
Secure the first class deck. Abandon
ship! Sail to tranquil ponds in small
boats. Look! A passage to a
better sea, if Wake me if something happens.
Smith Market optimism Dont worry, hidden and
be happy enlightened hand
Keynes/ Policy stewardship Environment and
Brundtland equity through better technology
Malthus Existential gloom The end is
coming population/resource catastrophe
Hobbes Social chaos Order through nasty nature
of man strong leaders
19th C. social Pastoral romance Small is
beautiful utopians, Gandhi goodness of
man evil of industrialism
Any volunteers? Sustainability as Human
solidarity, progressive global new
values, social evolution the art of living
My brother-in-law, Muddle through no Que será,
será yours (probably) grand philosophies
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GT Path?
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Risky Bequest
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Barbarization
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Bending the Curve
Development
Peace
Freedom
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Limits of the Reform Path
Policy Reform is feasible, in principle the
necessary technologies and policies are available
But daunting, in practice gradually bending
highly unsustainable trends imposes immense
challenges The critical uncertainty where would
the political will come from? Reform may not be
enough..
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Fulfillment Curve
ENOUGH
Fulfillment
Consumption
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New Sustainability Paradigm
A values-led scenario

• Quality of life
• Human solidarity
• Ecological sensibility

A pluralistic scenario
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Proximate and Ultimate Drivers
Proximate Drivers
Ultimate Drivers
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Tools for Transitions
Market Forces
Policy Reform
Great Transition
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Dimensions of Transition
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Change Agents
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Which worlddo we want?