CRGAQS: Latest CAMx 2018 Results R2

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CRGAQSLatest CAMx 2018 Results R2

• Presentation to the
• Gorge Study Technical Team
• ENVIRON International Corporation
• Alpine Geophysics, LLC
• May 23, 2007

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Todays Presentation

• Review 2004 extinction against IMROVE
• Review modeled organic carbon components
• Show revised nephelometer comparisons
• Account for high humidity in November episode
• Latest 2018 CAMx simulations
• Review results for August episode
• Compare 2004, 2018 and 2018 What-ifs
• Review results for November episode
• Compare 2004, 2018 and 2018 What-ifs
• Trend lines
• Next Steps

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2004 Extinction vs IMPROVE
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2004 Extinction vs IMPROVE
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CAMx Organics

• Primary organic aerosol (POA)
• Sources any combustion
• Emitted as a stable aerosol
• No evaporation/re-condensation
• Secondary organic aerosol (SOA)
• VOCs oxidize to condensable gases
• SOA forms as f(T, RH, aerosol mass)
• Condensation/evaporation possible

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CAMx Organics

• CAMx treats 5 kinds of SOA
• SOA1-3 from anthropogenic VOC sources
• Tracks formation from aromatics and parafins
• Combustion and fugitive sources
• SOA4-5 from biogenic VOC
• Terpenes generate two SOA products
• Less apt to evaporate
• Updates coming for both CAMx and CMAQ
• Sesqueterpenes and isoprene

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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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November Nephelometer
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November Nephelometer
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What-if Scenarios

• Case 01 zero Boardman emissions
• Case 02 zero NH3 emissions for PSAT region 5
  (east of Gorge)
• Case 03 zero on-road mobile source emissions
  for PSAT region 2 (Portland and Vancouver)
• Case 04 zero major point source emissions for
  PSAT region 2
• Case 05 zero major point source emissions for
  PSAT region 1 (in-Gorge)

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PSAT Regions
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (August)
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Calculation of Trend Lines

• 2004 to 2018 trend in extinction
• Average daily extinction over high days
• August Episode
• August 10-15 at Mt Zion
• August 12-15, 19 at Wishram
• November Episode
• November 6,8,9,13,16 at Zion
• November 8,10-14 at Wishram
• Calculate Deciview from extinction
• Linearizes extinction effect on visual range
• DV change of 1 is just perceptible change in
  visibility

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August Trend Lines
-0.44 Mm-1 per year
-0.07 per year
-6.2 Mm-1 -10
-1.0
-0.22 per year
-3.1
-0.99 Mm-1 per year
-13.9 Mm-1 -27
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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2004 vs. 2018 Results (November)
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November Trend Lines
-0.07 per year
-2.42 Mm-1 per year
-1.0
-33.9 Mm-1 -9
-0.12 per year
-1.7
-3.67 Mm-1 per year
-51.4 Mm-1 -15
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Next Steps

• Apply modeled changes to observed levels
• Finish PSAT (2004/2018, August/ November)
• Complete report