Successes and Issues _______ ____ An Ionospheric Perspective

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Successes and Issues___________ An
Ionospheric Perspective
O. de La Beaujardière, W. Burke, F. Rich, K.
Groves, C. Huang, D. Decker, W. Borer, C. Lin, G.
Bishop NSPWX meeting, Jan 2006
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Successes

• Operational space weather products such as OpSEND
• Tactical version of OpSEND (TacSEND) used by
  military in recent conflict
• SCINDA first ground-based regional scintillation
  nowcasting system
• Increase of attn/priority given to this topic by
  scientific comm in other nations -- wide ranging
  international collaborations and influence
• Much improved understanding of storm effects
• Currents, precipitation, neutral composition,
  TEC, scintillation, etc
• Much improved determination of total energy
  deposited in ionosphere
• From Poynting Flux (B and E) and CHAMP
• Advanced high latitude electrodynamics
  specification -- Impacts all altitudes
• Preliminary results on satellite drag prediction
  encouraging
• Factor of 5 possible improvement in drag
• Much improved understanding of ionospheric
  coupling processes
• Iono/thermo, Iono/Meso, Iono/Mag
• C/NOFS first-ever space weather prediction
  satellite
• GUVI and SSUSI provide important new data --
  Recent CalVal of SSUSI
• New method to estimate Dst based on DMSP
• Needs to be transitioned immediately because
  Japan stopped providing Dst in Aug 05
• GAIM MURIs advanced ionospheric specification --
  Transitioned to AFWA C/NOFS

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Issues

• Lack of ACE replacement
• Problems with NPOESS step backwards from DMSP
• Lack of magnetometer, GPS receiver, Beacon or
  DORIS receiver
• Not all instruments on all birds
• Large launch delay
• Possibility of eliminating SESS
• DMSP data can and should be available in real
  time for space weather products
• Within DoD, responsibilities for space weather
  fall into too many agencies who are not well
  coordinated
• Insufficient NOAA/AF coordination
• BRAC-imposed move of AFRL/VSBX
• NASA shifting priorities into Space Exploration
• NASA sun earth connection budget not well
  balanced magnetospheric and, more seriously,
  ionospheric missions neglected
• NOAA continuing funding uncertainty
• AFOSR precipitous decrease in AFRLs support

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NPOESS Plan for SESS

• Incomplete set of instruments
• Instruments which should be paired are not
  paired
• Schedule has already slipped 2 years
• Likely To slip MUCH more
• SESS could even be cancelled
• Official requirements are based on 15-year old
  needs dont allow for future needs

NPOESS Is A Step Backwards for Space Weather
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Dst Index Derived from DMSP
Official Dst from Kyoto stopped 03 Oct 2005 for
an indefinite period Dst like parameter now
obtained from space-based magnetometers AFRL/
Hanscom has recently shown that data from DMSP
can be used
Kyoto Dst (solid line) and DMSP Dst estimated for
am and pm (crosses triangles) Excellent
agreement