Global Warming, the End of Life as We Know It

1
Global Warming, the End of Life as We Know It?

• The Naysayers View

2
Definition of Global Warming

• The increase in the average temperature of the
  Earths near-surface air and oceans in recent
  decades and its projected continuation.

3
Greenhouse Effect
4
Greenhouse Effect
5
Some Causes of Global Warming

• Anthropogenous Causes
• (Industrialization)
• CO2 emissions
• Burning of fossil fuels
• Deforestation
• Methane
• Livestock
• Nitrous oxide
• Agricultural activities
• Fertilizers

• Natural Causes
• Solar variation
• Volcanoes
• Orbital forcing
• Atmospheric greenhouse gasses (major)
• Water vapor
• Carbon dioxide
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide
• ozone

6
(No Transcript)
7
The Connection

• High levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have been
  linked to elevated global temperatures and
  climate changes

8
However .

• Keep in mind the earth has gone through many
  natural temperature cycles before.
• http//www.sepp.org/
• S. Fred Singer.doc

9
(No Transcript)
10
Some Possible Outcomes of Continued Global Warming

• Further Glacial Retreat (melting/disappearance)
• Worldwide sea levels could rise (.36 2.5 ft,
  till 2100)
• Positive feedbacks causing further warming
• Weather events
• Changes in precipitation
• Less rain some areas, flooding in others
• More frequent and extreme weather events
• Changes in agricultural yields
• Increased incidences and areas of diseases

11
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)

• Established in 1988 by the parent organizations,
  World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
  United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• The Role of IPCC
• Assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and
  transparent basis the scientific, technical and
  socio-economic information relevant to
  understanding the scientific basis of risk of
  human-induced climate change, its potential
  impacts and options for adaptation and
  mitigation
• This agency does NOT carry out research or
  monitor climate data
• The basic assessments made are on peer reviewed
  and published scientific/ technical literature.
• Divided into three Working Groups and a Task
  Force
• Getting ready to release their Fourth Assessment
  Report (AR4)
• To be released last quarter of 2007
• www.ipcc.ch/

12
Conclusions of IPCC

• Most of the observed increases in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
  due to humans
• Natural phenomena such as solar variation
  combined with volcanoes probably had a small
  warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950.
• These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at
  least 30 scientific societies and academies of
  science.
• A few individual scientists disagree with some of
  the main conclusions of the IPCC
• S. Fred Singer www.sepp.org/

13
Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

• Founded in 1990 by atmospheric physicist S. Fred
  Singer the godfather of global warming denial
• Founded on belief that sound, credible science
  must form the basis for health and environmental
  decisions that affect millions of people and cost
  tens of billions of dollars every year.
• Non-profit, educational group
• Mission to clarify the diverse problems facing
  the planet and where necessary, arrive at
  effective cost-conscious solutions
• www.sepp.org

14
What are we currently basing our forecasts on?

• We are basically using past data that may not be
  completely accurate
• Not completely global measurements
• Ice core analysis
• Fossil analysis
• Urban Heat Islands
• Discrepancy between satellite and weather balloon
  data

15
Climate Models

• We are also using Climate Models which are
  predictive scenarios of what might happen with
  our future climate.
• Over 20 different scientific models
• Based on physical principles
• Fluid dynamics
• Radiative transfer
• AR4WG1_Ch01-Figs_2007-06-05.ppt
• AR4WG1_Ch10-Figs_2007-06-05.ppt

16
What is the concern with predictive models?

• All the factors that effect global warming are so
  numerous it is nearly impossible to adjust models
  to include all of them
• How clouds are treated in the models
• Water vapor
• Variable Sun
• Magnetic activities
• Land clearing albedo changes

17
Other theories of Global Warming Causation?

• Solar Variation Astronomical theory
• Magnetic activity that deflects cosmic rays,
  which has and effect on cloud formation
• Ice ages cycles are linked to this theory
• A few people over there in Durham (Duke) have
  written papers suggesting the Suns contribution
  to current global warming may have been
  underestimated by 45-50 (1900-2000)

18
Other theories of Global Warming Causation?

• Continental drift Tectonic Events
• Shifts in plates under the earths surface
• Linked to long term climate changes
• Atmosphere Ocean Interactions
• Changes in ocean circulation
• Linked to shorter climate variations
• Butterfly effect ?
• Unknown variable

19
In Summary, Does Global Warming mean the End of
Life as We Know It?

• The majority of the climate models predict that
  conditions wouldnt become severe until the year
  2100, so it wouldnt be the end of life as WE
  know it if the models are correct
• Predictive climatology isnt an exact science so
  life as we know it may go unchanged, or
  normalize.
• People are more likely to want to err on the side
  of caution and perhaps even take more of an
  alarmist point of view
• No one wants history to repeat its self (such as
  in the case of lead)
• No one wants to overlook something that is
  preventable (somewhat) and could lead to the
  total destruction of the world

20
Some Extra Articles

• Cooling It On Global Warming
• http//cagle.msnbc.com/news/GlobalWarmingSteigerwa
  ld/main.asp
• High Price for Load of Hot Air
• http//www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,2
  1920043-27197,00.html