Why Transition Studies

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Why Transition Studies?

• Nordic-Baltic-Russian Network of Transition
  Studies
• Workshop 2006

Putting the Eastern European transitions into a
wider perspective of regime change
Vello Pettai, Department of Political Science,
University of Tartu
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Democracys Three Waves
L Haiti, Sudan, Suriname
K Bulgaria, Dominican Republic, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Mongolia, Namibia,
Nicaragua, Panama, Papua New-Guinea, Romania,
Senegal
J Burma, Fidji, Ghana, Guyana, Indonesia, Lebanon
I Nigeria
H Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, India, South-Korea,
Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Turkey
G Botswana, Costa Rica, Gambia, Israel, Jamaica,
Malaysia, Malta, Sri Lanka, Trinidad Tobago,
Venezuela
F Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania
E East Germany, Poland, Portugal, Spain
D Argentina, Czechoslovakia, Greece, Hungary,
Uruguay
C Austria, Belgium, Colombia, Denmark, France,
West Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway
B Chile
A Australia, Canada, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
New-Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, Great Britain,
USA
(Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, p.
14)
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Democracy as Normative Standard

• History is not over (Fukuyama), but democracy
  (even if only electoral) is a central
  international measure of political legitimacy in
  our era
• membership in international organizations
• conditionality for development aid
• foreign policy priority regime change

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Political science is democracy

• Modern political science (e.g. comparative
  politics) is fundamentally concerned about
  democracy, its functioning and ultimately its
  fostering
• even studies of non-democracies are just that
  non-democracies, i.e. defined in relation to
  democracy
• cultural, religious, historical essentialisms are
  not seen as plausible approaches to making sense
  of politics

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Four educational research tasks

• what is democracy vs. other regimes?
• regime theory conceptual framework of regimes
• static boundaries
• how does democracy come about?
• regime transition theory causal models of
  regime change
• dynamic models
• practical advice

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Four educational research tasks

• how to consolidate democracy?
• types of consolidation
• economic change
• retrospective justice
• how to compare post-communist change?
• what is special about Central and Eastern Europe?

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1) Regime Theory

• Linz and Stepan (1996), Table 3.1

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2a) Cycles of Regime Transition
crisis-breakdown
non-democratic regime type
young democracy
non-democracy
international influences
economic factors
democratization
liberalization
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2b) Practical advice
Regime Opposition -transition will not last
seize the opportunity -the future of both sides
depends on agreement -resist more hard-line or
extreme elements -your agreement will be the only
alternative hardliners and radicals can not
offer anything -when in doubt. compromise
crisis-breakdown
Soft-liners -secure your political
base -maintain backward legitimacy -shift
constuencies -be prepared for extreme moves -lead
from strength -keep expectations low -encourage
responsible opposition -create sense of
inevitability
Opposition -focus attn on illegitimacy -encourage
disaffection, defections -cultivate
generals -practice and preach non-violence -seize
all chances to express oppo., including
elections -develop contacts with outside
world -promote unity among oppo. -be prepared
quickly to fill vacuum
Soft-liners -maintain control over
regime -surprise with concessions -get security
services to agree to nego. principle -enhance
stature and position of preferred oppo.
leader -establish confidential and reliable
back-channels to oppo. -secure rights for oppo.
in future regime
young democracy
non-democracy
democratization
liberalization
S. Huntington, The Third Wave, 1991, 141-2,
150-1, 162-3.
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3a) Types of Consolidation
A. Schedler, What is Democratic Consolidation?
Journal of Democracy, 1998, pp. 91-107
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3b) Economic challenges
democracy market economy
democracy market economy reform
new democracies market economy reform
different new democracies market economy reform
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3c) Retrospective justice
PLAYERS
amnesty ? amnesia
victims
perpetrators
property restitution, compensation
judicial trials
legal
detotalitarization
MEASURES
truth commissions
lustration
opening secret files
political
exposing collaborators
recognition, memory
Adapted from C. Offe and U. Poppe, 2005, pp. 153
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4) Comparing change LA vs CEE

• non-democratic regime type
• authoritarian vs. post-totalitarian
• economic system
• capitalism vs planned economy
• level of economic development
• weakly industrialized vs industrialized
• class structure of society
• multi-layered vs flattened

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4) Comparing change LA vs CEE

• multiethnicity
• homogeneous vs heterogenous societies
• civil society
• strong vs weak
• the role of the masses
• occasional vs decisive
• international influences during liberalization
• limited vs background setter
• international influences during democratization
• moderate vs extensive

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4) Comparing change LA vs CEE

• state identity
• marginal vs liberation, independence
• change in elites
• often limited vs often very extensive
• main tasks of democratization
• regime change ( econ. stabilization) vs
  (triple-) transformation of society
• successive vs simultaneous

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Other fields and foci

• modern European history and the Cold War
• transition economics
• anthropology of transition
• memory and transitional justice
• life stories and individual-level memory research

TRANSITION STUDIES HAS STILL A LONG WAY TO GO!