CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION

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CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION

• Prof.Dr. Nguyen Duc Ngu
• Center for Hydrometeorology and Environment
• Prof. Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu
• GEF/SGP Vietnam National Steering Committee

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• 1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATES CHARACTERISTICS IN
  VIETNAM
• 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE
  PAST 100 YEARS
• 3. CURRENT STATUS ON GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHGs)
  EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM
• 4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIETNAM
• 5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

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1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATES CHARACTERISTICS IN
VIETNAM

• 1.1 Monsoon tropical climate in a penisular of a
  greate European Asian continent
• Internal tropic heat radiation
• Monsoon circle in South Eastern Asia
• Diverse patterns of humidity and temperature
• Much of natural disasters hoarfrost. storms.
  typhoons. droughts

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1.2 Parameters of some basic factors

• Total heat radiation 85-190 kcal/cm2/year
• Balanced heat radiation 40- 120kcal/cm2/year
• Total number of sun shire hours 1400-3000
  hour/year
• Average temperature 13-28C (-3.2 42.5)
• Average rainfall 700- 5000 mm
• Number of cold front (FRL) 26
• Number of tropical cyclones 11(in Southern
  China Sea). 6.9(Vietnam)

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1.3 CLIMATE SEASONS

• Climate season V- X
• Cold season XI- IV
• Rainy season
• Hot. humid monsoon (Northern region. Central
  Highland. Southern region) V X
• Cold. dry monsoon (Northern Central region.
  Southern Central region) IX-XII
• Storm season VI- XII
• Drought season
• Northern region. Central Highland. Southern
  region XI IV
• Northern Central region. Central region
  VI- VII
• Southern Central region III- VIII
  

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1.4 Region-based climate classification

• Figure 1 Climate region in Vietnam

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2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE
PAST 100 YEARS

• Table 2.1 Standard variation and deviation of
  frequency FRL

Feature I II III IV V VI VII VII IX X XI XII year
Standard variation (time) 1.57 1.04 1.04 1.39 1.07 1.36 0.22 0.36 1.10 1.10 1.68 0.94 4.36
Deviation () 39.3 30.2 30.2 53.5 41.1 97.1 220.0 180.0 91.7 45.8 46.7 27.6 16.0
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2.2 Table 2.5 Frequency of tropical cyclones.
start. mature and end
Season of tropical cyclones Start Start Mature Mature End End
Feature N. of years Percentage () N. of years Percentage () N. of years Percentage ()
III 1 2.5 0 0.0 0 0.0
IV 2 5.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
V 3 7.5 0 0.0 0 0.0
VI 18 45.0 1 2.5 0 0.0
VII 10 25.0 3 7.5 0 0.0
VIII 3 7.5 7 17.5 0 0.0
IX 1 2.5 14 35.0 5 12.5
X 2 5.0 12 30.0 7 17.5
XI 0 0.0 3 7.5 19 47.5
XII 0 0.0 0 0.0 8 20.0
I 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
II 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 2.5
Total 40 100.0 4.0 100.0 40 100.0
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2.3 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE Table 2.6 Standard
variation of some features of temperature in some
typical locations (0C).
LOcation Monitoring station Average temperature Average temperature Average temperature Average temperature Average temperature Highest temperature in a year Lowest temperature in a year
LOcation Monitoring station I IV VII X Year Highest temperature in a year Lowest temperature in a year
North West Lai Chau 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.33 2.45
North East Sa Pa 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.72 1.17
Red river delta Hanoi 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 1.07 1.46
Northern Central region Vinh 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.82 1.37
Southern Central region Da Nang 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.93 1.51
Highland Da Lat 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.29 1.72
Mekong River delta Tan Son Nhat 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.69 1.38
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2.4 CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERN

• Table 2.7 frequency of coldest and hottest
  months

Feature Coldest Coldest Coldest Coldest Hottest Hottest Hottest Hottest Hottest Hottest
Month XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII
Hanoi 24 47 29 40 53 7
Ad Nan 25 68 7 49 36 15
Tan Son Nat 6 45 49 0 3 77 20
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2.5 CHANGES IN RAINY SEASON Table 2.8 Standard
variation (S mm) and variation of rainfall (Sr
) measured in some typical locations
Location Monitoring station Features I IV VII X Year
North West Lai Chau S 29.0 55.5 129.3 61.9 286.7
North West Lai Chau Sr 99 42 28 68 14
North East Sa Pa S 46.4 75.2 161.9 113.6 402.8
North East Sa Pa Sr 69 36 36 54 14
Red River Delta Hanoi S 21.6 53.4 101.8 104.8 320.0
Red River Delta Hanoi Sr 102 55 39 72 19
Northern Central region Vinh S 29.0 37.7 119.2 353.0 514.0
Northern Central region Vinh Sr 55 59 102 69 25
Southern Central region Da Nang S 76.6 50.7 83.1 276.6 545.4
Southern Central region Da Nang Sr 98 143 98 44 26
Highland Da Lat S 12.1 89.8 83.2 100.3 237.1
Highland Da Lat Sr 159 55 36 41 13
Mekong River Delta Tan Son Nhat S 19.3 50.7 93.5 91.8 284.9
Mekong River Delta Tan Son Nhat Sr 140 101 32 34 15
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2.6 TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE
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Significant signs of Climate Change trends

• Less dizzily rain
• Less mist
• Increased or decreased rainfall in centers
• Storms and tropical pressures tend to happen more
  at the end of the season
• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts

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3. GHGs EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM3.1. GHG emission
inventory in 1994Table 3.1 GHS emission of
power-consuming sectors
Sector CO2 CH4 N2O NOX CO NMVOC SO2
Power generation 4115.07 0.109 0.045 11.759 0.836 0.246 2.979
Industry and construction 7671.17 0.433 0.081 22.061 5.199 0.931 5.359
Transport 3634.43 0.465 0.043 35.822 158.724 30.342 1.365
Services/ Commerce 1974.69 0.242 0.022 2.421 19.198 1.964 1.118
Domestic use 1806.04 118.777 1.545 40.011 1931.933 231.216 286.69
Agro-forestry and fishery 887.73 0.098 0.007 14.537 12.355 2.446 0.511
Others 1490.87 0.385 0.013 2.155 1.59 0.222 0.812
Total 21580.0 120.589 1.756 128.763 2129.836 267.367 298.84
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3.2 GHG emission inventory in 1998

• Table 3.2 Emission of CH4 from exploitation
  activities (thousand tones)

Exploitation activities Emission
Underground coal mine 37,362
Surface coal mine 2,387
Oil exploitation 0.748
Gas exploitation 4,565
Gas leakage 1,702
Total 46,764
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3.3 Projected emission for 2010 - 2028

• Table 3.3 GHG emission from industrial production
  1994 (thousand tones).

Industrial production CO2 NOX CO SO2 NMVOC
Cement 2,677.24 1,611.18
Lime production 651.99
Natri carbonate production 0.52
Use of Natri carbonate 2.24
Steel production 475.2 0.011 0.012 0.008
Paper production 0.230 0.861 1.076 0.569
Wine and beer 0.136
Food 4.075
Total 3,807.19 0.241 0.861 1,612.266 4.788
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4. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE4.1 Climate Change
simulation models in VietnamTable 4.1 Simulation
models developed based on GHG emission scenarios

Year 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Increased temperature 00C
IS 92a 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.0
IS 92b 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.0
IS 92c 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2
IS 92d 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6
IS 92e 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.5
IS 92f 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.4
Sea level rise (cm)
IS 92a 1 7 16 24 36 49
IS 92b 1 7 16 24 36 49
IS 92c 1 7 15 23 31 38
IS 92d 1 7 15 23 31 42
IS 92e 1 7 17 25 38 55
IS 92f 1 7 17 25 38 54
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4.2 Predictions on Climate Change scenarios

• Significantly increased temperature North West,
  North East, and Central Highland
• Significantly increased rainfall in rainy season
  in Northern Central and Southern Central regions
• Rainfall in dry season
• Increased rainfall in Northern Central and
  Southern Central regions
• Both increased and decreased rainfall in
  some other regions
• Significant Sea level rise in the second half of
  21st century

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5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

• Water resources
• - Average water flow - (minus)
• - Water flow in dry season - -
• - Water flow in flood
• - Lack of water due to severe droughts
• Agriculture
• - Boundary of tropical crops and trees shift to
  further North
• - Boundary of sub-tropical crops and trees is
  shrunk
• - Increased inundation and severe droughts
• - Decreased cultivable areas

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• Forestry
• - Shrinking mangrove forests
• - Boundary of forest of diperocarpacea species
  move further to the North
• - Drought-tolerant tree species are expanding
• - Risks of forest fire and attack by insects
  increased
• Fishery
• - Changes in balneology and aquatic habitats
• - Fishery resources are fragmented
• - Increased population of tropical fish species
• - Increased population of sub- tropical fish
  species

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• Impacts on transport and energy
• Impacts on
• Oil exploration facilities in sea
• Railways in coastal areas
• Power consumption for domestic use
• Water flows in rivers and water reservoirs for
  power generation
• Impacts on health
• Negative effects on elders health
• Cardiovascular diseases. tropical diseases

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THANK YOU !