Understanding Land Change in Amazonia: A Multidisciplinary Research Challenge

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Understanding Land Change in Amazonia A
Multidisciplinary Research Challenge
IGERT Colloquim Series, Department of Geography,
SUNY Bufallo, February 2007

• Gilberto Câmara
• Director
• National Institute for Space Research
• Brazil

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INPE - brief description

• National Institute for Space Research
• main civilian organization for space activities
  in Brazil
• staff of 1,800 ( 800 Ms.C. and Ph.D.)
• Areas
• Space Science, Earth Observation, Meteorology and
  Space Engineering

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Environmental activities at INPE

• Numerical Weather Prediction Centre
• medium-range forecast and climate studies
• LANDSAT/SPOT Receiving and Processing Station
• in operation since 1974
• China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite
• 5 bands (3 visible, 1 IR) at 20 m resol.
• Research Activities in Remote Sensing
• 300 MsC and PhD graduates
• ONU-funded Center for Africa and S. America

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The Future of Brazilian Amazon

• Why is this an multidisciplinary research
  challenge?
• Amazonia is a key environmental resource
• Many different concerns
• Environment and biodiversity conservation
• Economic development
• Native population

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Can we avoid that this.
Source Carlos Nobre (INPE)
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Fire...
.becomes this?
Source Carlos Nobre (INPE)
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Amazonia at a glance ... The Natural System

• Almost 6 million km2 of contiguous tropical
  forests
• Perhaps 1/3 of the planet's biodiversity
• Abundant rainfall (2.2 m annually)
• 18 of freshwater input into the global oceans
  (220,000 m3/s)
• Over 100 G ton C stored in vegetation and soil
• A multitude of ecosystems, biological and ethnic
  diversity

Source Carlos Nobre (INPE)
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We might know the past.
Estimativa do Desmatamento da Amazônia (INPE)
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Whats coming next?
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Source Carlos Nobre (INPE)
Deforestation...
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Environmental Modelling in Brasil

• GEOMA Rede Cooperativa de Modelagem Ambiental
• Cooperative Network for Environmental Modelling
• Established by Ministry of Science and Technology
• Long-term objectives
• Develop models to predict the spatial dynamics of
  ecological and socio-economic systems at
  different geographic scales,
• Support policy decision making at local, regional
  and national levels, by providing decision makers
  with qualified analytical tools.  

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Modelling Complex Problems

• Application of multidisciplinary knowledge to
  produce a model.

If (... ? ) then ...
Desforestation?
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What is Computational Modelling?

• Design and implementation of computational
  enviroments for modelling
• Requires a formal and stable description
• Implementation allow experimentation
• Rôle of computer representation
• Bring together expertise in different field
• Make the different conceptions explicit
• Make sure these conceptions are represented in
  the information system

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Public Policy Issues

• What are the acceptable limits to land cover
  change activities in the tropical regions in the
  Americas?
• What are the future scenarios of land use?
• How can food production be made more efficient
  and productive?
• How can our biodiversity be known and the
  benefits arising from its use be shared fairly?
• How can we manage our water resources to sustain
  our expected growth in urban population?

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Modelling Land Change in Amazonia

• How much deforestation is caused by
• Soybeans?
• Cattle ranching?
• Small-scale setllers?
• Wood loggers?
• Land speculators?
• A mixture of the above?

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Challenge How do people use space?
Loggers
Competition for Space
Source Dan Nepstad (Woods Hole)
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What Drives Tropical Deforestation?
of the cases
? 5 10 50
Underlying Factors driving proximate causes
Causative interlinkages at proximate/underlying
levels
Internal drivers
If less than 5of cases, not depicted here.
sourceGeist Lambin
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Different agents, different motivations

• Intensive agriculture (soybeans)
• export-based
• responsive to commodity prices, productivity and
  transportation logistics
• Extensive cattle-ranching
• local export
• responsive to land prices, sanitary controls and
  commodity prices

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photo source Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)
Large-Scale Agriculture
Agricultural Areas (ha) Agricultural Areas (ha) Agricultural Areas (ha) Agricultural Areas (ha)
  1970 1995/1996
Legal Amazonia 5,375,165 32,932,158 513
Brazil 33,038,027 99,485,580 203
Source IBGE - Agrarian Census Source IBGE - Agrarian Census Source IBGE - Agrarian Census
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photo source Edson Sano (EMBRAPA)
Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil Cattle in Amazonia and Brazil
Unidade 1992 2001
Amazônia Legal 29,915,799 51,689,061 72,78
Brasil 154,229,303 176,388,726 14,36
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Different agents, different motivations

• Small-scale settlers
• Associated to social movements (MST, Church)
• Responsive to capital availability, land
  ownership, and land productivity
• Can small-scale economy be sustainable?
• Wood loggers
• Primarily local market
• Responsive to prime wood availability, official
  permits, transportation logistics
• Land speculators
• Appropriation of public lands
• Responsive to land registry controls, law
  enforcement

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Altamira (Pará) LANDSAT Image 22 August 2003
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Altamira (Pará) MODIS Image 07 May 2004
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Imagem Modis de 2004-05-21, com excesso de nuvens

Altamira (Pará) MODIS Image 21 May 2004
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Altamira (Pará) MODIS Image 07 June 2004
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Altamira (Pará) MODIS Image 22 June 2004
6.000 hectares deforested in one month!
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Altamira (Pará) LANDSAT Image 07 July 2004
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Modelling Land Change in Amazonia
Territory (Geography)
Money (Economy)
Culture (Antropology)
Modelling (GIScience)
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Current and future development axes
BR-174
Transamazônica BR-230
Belém/Brasília
BR-319
Cuiabá-Santarém BR-163
Cuiabá-Porto Velho BR-364
Prodes 2003/2004 (INPE, 2005)
Estudos Avançados nº 53 (Théry, H. 2005)
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Dynamic areas (current and future)
New Frontiers
INPE 2003/2004
Intense Pressure
Deforestation
Forest
Future expansion
Non-forest
Clouds/no data
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Amazonian new frontier hypothesis (Becker)

• The actual frontiers are different from the
  60s and the 70s
• In the past it was induced by Brazilian
  government to expand regional economy and
  population, aiming to integrate Amazônia with the
  whole country.
• Today, induced mostly by private economic
  interests and concentrated on focus areas in
  different regions.

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Integrated Land Use and Land Cover Change
Modeling in Pará
http//www.geoma.lncc.br
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Land use and Land Cover Dynamics in São Félix
do Xingu-Iriri (PA)
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Iriri River
S. F Xingu
Novo Progresso
Xingu River
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Accumulated Deforestation
Annual rate
Escada et al, 2005 Estudos Avançados , Nº 54
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Land Appropriation Model
Araújo (2004) Escada et al (2005)
Small- medium farms
Primary occupation
Land permits
Violent Expropriation
Illegal registration
Large farms
Legal money
Illegal money
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Cattle ranching and deforestation
Source DePará, 2005
Amount of cattle head
Accumulated Deforestation
Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi e Embrapa Oriental
Escada et al, 2005 Estudos Avançados , Nº 54
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Cattle Ranching Model
Forest
F
P
PR
Pasture
Pasture Relief
Forest Relief
Degraded Pasture
Recovered Pasture
FR
PD
RP
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Agents in Terra do Meio
T
P - Small G, M - Large, Medium R -
Riverside
Pequenos e Médios
Grandes
T
G
Toca do Sapo
Ribeirinhos
G
G
L. Jaba
Área em disputa (CPT, 2004) G
G
P
Cutia
P
Estrada Canopus
G
Branquinho
. F. Cheiro
L. Caraíba
P Primavera 10 km
P
T
G
Tibornea
G
P
Estrada dos fazendeiros
P, M
G
T
G
Source CPT(2004) , Taravello, R. (2004), Isa
(2001) , Geoma(2004), Escada et al (2005)
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Population Flux seasonality
Dry season flux
Rain season flux
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Analysis of public policy Conservation units in
Pará
Parque Nacional da Serra do Pardo - 5 df
RESEX Riozinho do Anfrísio
ESEC Terra do Meio
Flona de Altamira
Canopus
Fazendeiros
0
50 km
Prodes 2004 (INPE, 2005)
Escada et al, 2005
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Sample of results

• Test 2 Without demand or regression
  regionalization
• Test 8 With demand and regression
  regionalization (one model for fine scale
  partition Arco, Central and Occidental)
• Test 13 With demand and regression
  regionalization (Arco regression model used at
  Central partition).

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Statistics Humans as clouds
Statistical analysis of deforestation
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Land Change Model (1997-2015)
Projected hot spots of deforestation 1997- 2015
Federative States
Regionalizing the demand improves pressure on
Central area, but Central area regressions
emphasizes proximity to ports and rivers, due to
historical process in the area, and not
connectivity to the rest of the country.
Roads
Percentage of change in forest cover from 1997 to
2015
0 -gt
100
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Impact of the proposed Manaus-Porto Velho road
Rede Temática GEOMA Setembro, 2006

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Área de estudo ALAP BR 319 e entorno
new road
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(No Transcript)
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BASELINE SCENARIO Hot spots of change (1997 a
2020)
ALAP BR 319
Estradas pavimentadas em 2010
Estradas não pavimentadas
Rios principais
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GOVERNANCE SCENARIO Differences from baseline
scenario
Differences
Protection areas
ALAP BR 319
Estradas pavimentadas em 2010
Less
0.0
-0.50
Sustainable areas
Estradas não pavimentadas
More
0.0
0.10
Rios principais
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(No Transcript)
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GIScience and change

• Modelling change is essential in our world
• We need a vision for extending GIScience to have
  a research agenda for modeling change

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Global Land Project

• What are the drivers and dynamics of variability
  and change in terrestrial human-environment
  systems?
• How is the provision of environmental goods and
  services affected by changes in terrestrial
  human-environment systems?
• What are the characteristics and dynamics of
  vulnerability in terrestrial human-environment
  systems?

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Limits for Models
Uncertainty on basic equations
Social and Economic Systems
Quantum Gravity
Particle Physics
Living Systems
Global Change
Hydrological Models
Chemical Reactions
Meteorology
Solar System Dynamics
Complexity of the phenomenon
source John Barrow (after David Ruelle)