Title: RTEP04 Annual Public Meeting
1RTEP04 Annual Public Meeting
- Load Forecasts for Planning, Market Design, and
Operations - CT Office of Consumer Counsel, ME Office of
Public Advocate, - MA AG Consumer Protection Division, and NH Office
of Consumer Advocate
Paul Peterson 22 Pearl Street Cambridge, MA
02139 617.661.3248
2ISO RTEP process
- Annual evaluation of existing system
- Forecast future load growth (CELT)
- Estimates of new generation
- Estimates congestion costs/savings
- Issues RFPs for transmission upgrades
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
3ISO RTEP Process
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
4ISO RTEP Process
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
5RTEP Load Forecasts
- 50/50 is based on equal probability that a
summer peak load day will be above or below the
forecast summer peak load - 50/50 estimates that only five percent of
summer day peak loads will be above the forecast
summer peak load (95th percentile of all days) - 90/10 is based on 10 percent probability that
summer peak load day will be above the forecast
summer peak load - 90/10 estimates that only one percent of summer
day peak loads will be above the forecast summer
peak load (99th percentile of all days)
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
6RTEP Load Forecasts
- 50/50 forecast estimates that 4-5 days from
June through August (total of 92 days) will
exceed the forecast summer peak load day - 90/10 forecast estimates that 1 day from June
through August (total of 92 days) will exceed the
forecast summer peak load day - If the actual summer peak load exceeds the
forecasted load, OP4 actions can provide
2000-3000 MWs of relief - The 90/10 forecast adds approximately 1400 MWs
of additional load (generation resources)
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
7Using RTEP Load Forecasts
- Planning tool to test sensitivity of the system
to load changes - Market design tool for LICAP, Ancillary Services,
and Forward Reserves - Operational tool for seasonal Objective
Capability values and RMR contracts - Public information tool
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
8www.synapse-energy.com
Energy Efficiency System Planning
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