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RTEP04 Annual Public Meeting

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CT Office of Consumer Counsel, ME Office of Public Advocate, ... Forecast future load growth (CELT) Estimates of new generation ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: RTEP04 Annual Public Meeting


1
RTEP04 Annual Public Meeting
  • Load Forecasts for Planning, Market Design, and
    Operations
  • CT Office of Consumer Counsel, ME Office of
    Public Advocate,
  • MA AG Consumer Protection Division, and NH Office
    of Consumer Advocate

Paul Peterson 22 Pearl Street Cambridge, MA
02139 617.661.3248
2
ISO RTEP process
  • Annual evaluation of existing system
  • Forecast future load growth (CELT)
  • Estimates of new generation
  • Estimates congestion costs/savings
  • Issues RFPs for transmission upgrades

Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
3
ISO RTEP Process
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
4
ISO RTEP Process
Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
5
RTEP Load Forecasts
  • 50/50 is based on equal probability that a
    summer peak load day will be above or below the
    forecast summer peak load
  • 50/50 estimates that only five percent of
    summer day peak loads will be above the forecast
    summer peak load (95th percentile of all days)
  • 90/10 is based on 10 percent probability that
    summer peak load day will be above the forecast
    summer peak load
  • 90/10 estimates that only one percent of summer
    day peak loads will be above the forecast summer
    peak load (99th percentile of all days)

Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
6
RTEP Load Forecasts
  • 50/50 forecast estimates that 4-5 days from
    June through August (total of 92 days) will
    exceed the forecast summer peak load day
  • 90/10 forecast estimates that 1 day from June
    through August (total of 92 days) will exceed the
    forecast summer peak load day
  • If the actual summer peak load exceeds the
    forecasted load, OP4 actions can provide
    2000-3000 MWs of relief
  • The 90/10 forecast adds approximately 1400 MWs
    of additional load (generation resources)

Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
7
Using RTEP Load Forecasts
  • Planning tool to test sensitivity of the system
    to load changes
  • Market design tool for LICAP, Ancillary Services,
    and Forward Reserves
  • Operational tool for seasonal Objective
    Capability values and RMR contracts
  • Public information tool

Synapse Energy Economics
RTEP04 Public Meeting, September 9, 2004
8
www.synapse-energy.com
  • QUESTIONS?

Energy Efficiency System Planning
Synapse Energy Economics
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