Sunrise, Charleston Harbor

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VISTAS Emissions Sensitivities and Reasonable
Progress
STAD Presentation December 14, 2004
Sunrise, Charleston Harbor February 2004
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Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns. National Park
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Draft 12/03/04
VISTAS Deliverables to State Implementation
Plans for Regional Haze
Observations, Conclusions, Recommendations Dec
04 - Dec 05
Natural Visibility and Reasonable Progress
Goals Dec 04 Jun 05
Visibility PM2.5 Trends
Site-Specific Descriptions Dec 04 Aug 05
Public Consultation 2005-2007
Conceptual Description
Select Episodes Spring 05
Characterize Meteorology
Guidance to State Planning for Regional Haze
Dec 2005
Control Strategy Inventories Feb 05 May 05
Utility Forecast 2009-2018 Dec 04
Emissions Inventories 2002, 2009, 2018
Reports and SIP Appendices 2006
AQ Model Runs 2002, 2009, 2018 Dec 04 - Mar 05
Control Strategy AQ Modeling May 05 - Aug 05
Met, Em, and AQ Model protocol performance
Control Strategy Design Dec 04 - May 05
Economic Analyses Sep 2005
State Regulatory Decisions
Emission Sensitivities
Identify BART sources and control options
BART modeling protocol impacts Dec 04 - Oct 05
BART control evaluation Jan Jun 05
BART controls 2005-2007
Inter-RPO-State 2005-2007
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STAD Meeting Headlines Charleston, SC, Dec 14

• Natural Background and Reasonable Progress
• Source Attribution Analyses
• Emissions sensitivities by pollutant, sector,
  state, other RPOs
• SIP Planning
• State to state consultation
• BART Planning
• Modeling
• Control options and engineering analyses
• PM2.5 Modeling

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Question for the STAD

• We are requesting STAD permission to share VISTAS
  results, properly caveated, with other RPOs in
  winter 2005
• Natural Background and Reasonable Progress
• Emissions Sensitivities by pollutant, sector,
  state, other RPOs

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Reasonable Progress Goal
Need 80 mM-1 between 2002 and 2018
30.3 dV 206.97 mM-1
25.443 dV 127.30 mM-1
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Default Glidepath for Natural Background vs
Alternative Calculations
29.9
20 Haziest Days
dV
Natural Background (with alternative
assumptions)
Natural Background (EPA default)
2000 2018 YEAR
2064
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Natural Background Visibility Credible
alternatives to EPA default assumptions show
little difference to slope of glidepath for
reasonable progress in 2018.
Cold Mountain, Shining Rock Wilderness Area
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Emissions Sensitivities

• Georgia Tech has been evaluating air quality
  response to emissions changes in 2018
• using CMAQ for VISTAS 12 km modeling domain
• Model simulations for two episodes
• July 13-27, 2001 and January 1-20, 2002
• 2018 On The Books and 2018 On The Way
• Episode days are weighted using CART to best
  represent 20 best and worst days
• Weight days with IMPROVE measurements (1 in 3)
• Each site will use 1 5 days to represent each
  metric

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Modeled PM2.5 (mg/m3) July 18
2002 Base
2002 Typical
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Modeled PM2.5 (mg/m3) July 18
2018 On the Books 2018
On the Way
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Reasonable Progress Goal
Need 80 mM-1 between 2002 and 2018
30.3 dV 206.97 mM-1
25.443 dV 127.30 mM-1
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Mammoth Cave (KY) 4 days
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Great Smoky Mtns (TN) 2 days
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SO2 Emissions - July
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Dolly Sods (WV) 3 days
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Okefenokee (GA) 4 days
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SO2 Emissions - July
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Mammoth Cave (KY) - 4 days
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Great Smoky Mtns (TN) 2 days
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(No Transcript)
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Key Visibility Bins 20 Worst Days Great Smoky
Mtns.
Bin 39 (7 days) July 18 (31.3) Bin 38 (11
days) July 21 (68.7)
Surface Characteristics All Days (2000-2003)/5
Ex. Coeff. Categories

Knoxville
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Implications for Reasonable Progress Goals
Great Smoky Mountains, TN
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18 Class I areas in VISTAS states and monitor
locations
SEARCH
STN PM2.5 (selected)