Why E3

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Why E/3?

• Dr. Kelly Kissock
• Department of Mechanical and Aerospace
  Engineering
• University of Dayton

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What on Earth Are These?
     
World Energy Use
World Population
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Converting Heat to Work

• Since pre-history we knew how to
• Work
  
• Heat

• Industrial Revolution to
• Work
• Heat

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Newcomens Steam Engine1712
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Revolutionary Change

• Transforms economy textile production increases
  150 fold and prices drop 90
• Transforms place cities grow from 5 to 50
• Transforms family parents leave home to work
• Redimensions world steam ship and railroad
• Technology and population explode

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Economic Explosion

• From 1700-2000, per capita US/Europe income grows
  from 600 to 18,000 per year
• Increases 30x!

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Energy Revolution Creates Modern World
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Single Most Important Event in Human History
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Weve Come a Long Way

• Newcomens steam engine 0.5
• Watts steam engine 1
• Gasoline engines 30
• Coal Rankine cycles 35
• Turbines 40
• Diesel engines 50
• Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines 60

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But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged

• 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
• 2. Employ combustion to release heat
• CH42(O2 3.76 N2)CO22H20(NOxSOx)
• 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

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84 Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels

• In U.S. 86 from non-renewable fossil fuels
• Source U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

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Linear Model of Production
Fossil Fuel Resources
Atmosphere
Fossil Fuel Energy
CO2 Pollution
Energy Out
Economy

• Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere
  Filling Up

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US Oil Past Peak Production
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World Oil Near Peak Production
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US Oil Past Peak Production
Peak production 1973 Based on 174,820 MB
Technically Recoverable Crude Oil, AER 2005
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World Oil Near Peak Production
Peak production 2015 Based on 1,800 BB World
Oil Resources, WRI 1994
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U.S. Natural Gas Near Peak Production
Peak production 2015 Based on 1,430 TCF
Technically Recoverable Dry Natural Gas, AER 2005
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World Natural Gas Near Peak Production
Peak production 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF World
Dry Natural Gas Reserves, Oil and Gas Journal,
IEA 2004
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U.S. Coal Far From Peak Production
Peak production 2150 Based on 494,400 MT
Demonstrated Reserve Base, AER 2005
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World Coal Far From Peak Production
Peak production 2060 Based on 997,506 MT
World Estimated Recoverable Coal, IEA 2004
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Fossil Fuel Outlook

• After nearly 200 years,
• industrial revolution still fueled by fossil
  fuels
• Short-term
• Energy-related trade deficits drains national
  wealth
• Energy dislocations are economically catastrophic
• Energy price increases undermine economic growth
• Energy dependence results in national security,
  military and foreign policy problems
• Long-term
• Oil and gas production will peak before 2020,
  after which declining supplies will significantly
  increase prices and magnify short-term problems

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Environmental Perspective

• Using energy in todays ways leads
• to more environmental damage than
• any other peaceful human activity.
• The Economist, 1990.

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95 Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil
Fuels
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Global CO2 Concentration

• Keeling Curve Mauna Loa, Hawaii
• 2005 Concentration 380 ppm

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Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., Is There Still Time to Avoid
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global
Climate?, American Geophysical Union, 2005.
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Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric
Molecules
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
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Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001,
Summary for Policymakers
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Historical Temperature and CO2 Correlation
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
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Todays Concentrations Off the Chart
Hansen, J., 2005, A slippery slope How much
global warming constitutes dangerous
anthropogenic interference?, Climatic Change,
Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.
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Result Earth Quickly Warming

• Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

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Warming Most Pronounced At Poles
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
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Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps
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Rising Sea Level Low Elevation Flooding
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And the List Goes On

• Drought
• Severe weather
• Mass extinctions
• Accelerating non-linear irreversible process
• Methane release from thawing perma-frost
• Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover

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Debate?

• Consensus view from
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)
• Every G8 National Academy of Science
• Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306,
  2004)
• All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993
  2004 with key words climate change.
• Found 983 papers
• NONE disagreed with consensus position

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What to do?

• Addressing these global problems of resource and
  environmental constraints on the foundation of
  our modern economy will no doubt require
• Social reform
• Economic reform
• Political reform
• Technological innovation
• But how much and how fast?

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Stabilization Wedges

• Atmospheric CO2 concentration
• Pre-industrial 280 ppm
• Current 380 ppm
• Best case target stabilize at 500 ppm in 2050
• (1 C above 2000 temperature)
• Stabilizing at 500 ppm by 2050
• World C emissions constant at 7 GtC/yr (BAU 14
  GtC/yr)
• US C emissions reduced 50 to 0.7 GtC/yr (BAU
  2.7 GtC/yr)
• Possible by realizing wedges

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World Carbon Stabilization Scenario
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American,
September, 2006
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15 Possible Wedges of 1 GtC/y in 2050

• Vehicle efficiency from 30 to 60 mpg
• Reduced mileage from 10,000 to 5,000 mpy
• Cut building energy emissions by 25
• Improve coal plant efficiency from 40 to 60
• Replace 1,400 GW coal with gas plants
• Carbon capture and storage at 200 GW coal plants
• Carbon capture and storage at 250 MH2/yr IGCC
  plants
• Carbon capture and storage at 30 MBD coal to
  synfuel plants
• Add 700 GW coal plants with nuclear
• Increase wind power capacity by 50 times
• Increase PV by 700 times
• Increase H2 for fuel cell cars from wind power by
  100 times
• Increase ethanol production by 100 times
• Zero deforestation and 300 MHa of new tree
  plantations
• Increase conservation tillage by 10 times

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OECD / Non-OECD Contributions
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American,
September, 2006
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US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American,
September, 2006
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US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (ASES)
Kutscher, C., Tackling Climate Change in the
US, Solar Today, March, 2007
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Doing the Math World

• C Pop x /Pop x C/ where C/ E/ x
  C/E
• Population and economic drivers 2000-2050
• Pop from 6B to 9B is increase by factor of 1.5
• /Pop increases by factor of 4
• Business as usual case (C/ constant)
• C2050 1.5 Pop x 4 /Pop x C/ 6 C2000
• Carbon stabilization case
• C2050 1.5 Pop x 4 /Pop x (1/6) C/ C2000
• (C/) / 6 (E/) / 3 x (C/E) / 2
• Any scenario of development requires
• Tripling energy efficiency E/3
• Half of energy from non-CO2 emitting sources

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Doing the Math US

• C Pop x /Pop x C/ where C/ E/ x
  C/E
• Population and economic drivers 2000-2050
• Pop grows at 1 from 275M to 450M is increase of
  1.6
• /Pop grows at 2 is increase of 2.7
• Business as usual case (C/ constant)
• C2050 1.6 Pop x 2.7 /Pop x C/ 4.3 C2000
• Carbon stabilization case C2050 0.5 C2000
• C2050 1.6 Pop x 2.7 /Pop x (1/8.6) C/ 0.5
  C2000
• (C/) / 8.6 (E/) / 4.3 x (C/E) / 2
• Continued development requires
• Increasing energy efficiency by factor of 4 E/4
• Half of energy from non-CO2 emitting sources

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EEB Course Goals

• Learn how to design buildings that are
• Functional (traditional engineering course)
• Economic (better engineering course)
• Improve comfort / productivity (enlightened
  engineering course)
• E/3 (our course)

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EEM Course Goals

• Learn how to design manufacturing energy systems
  that are
• Functional (traditional engineering course)
• Economic (better engineering course)
• E/3 (our course)

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DTS Course Goals

• Learn how to design thermal systems that are
• Functional (traditional engineering course)
• Economic (better engineering course)
• E/3 (our course)

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RES Course Goals

• Learn how to design renewable energy systems that
  are
• Functional (traditional engineering course)
• Economic (better engineering course)
• Supply 50 of world/US energy by 2050 (our
  course)

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Thank you!