The Nordic countries in the EU, 19952004

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The Nordic countries in the EU, 1995-2004
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• Brusells, 23-24.3.2009 European aid fund for
  national payment balance 25 billions euros -gt 50
  billions euros (HALF of the current EU budget).
  Hungary and Latvia have already beneficiated form
  the fund, that adds to national aid funds
• Solidarity fund created by articles 119 and 120
  of the revised treaty on the European Community
  (articles 143 and 144 of the Lisbon treaty) -gt
  only for those countries not in the Eurozone
• Differences with the US US want relaunch, EU
  insists on regulation
• Bailouts of Baltic and Eastern European economies
• From Baltic tigers to assisted economies?
• Nordic banks, especially Swedish, tied through
  bad loans in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
• Riga got 3,1 billions from the European fund, 1,7
  billions from the WMF, 1,8 billions from Sweden
  and other Nordic states asks 1 billion more
• Nordic bailout of the Balts? Austrian bailouts of
  Hungary? Etc
• Effect on enlargement
• German CDU in its electoral platform for the June
  2009 European elections, 16th March ratify the
  Lisbon treaty, then strengthen in order to
  consolidate the identity and institutions of the
  Union
• Angela Merkel clarifies that 17th March we need
  a pause in the enlargement process. Croatia is
  in in 2010, no doubt, but Macedonia, Montenegro,
  Albania (Turkey?), etc will have to wait for
  their turn
• A rebuttal to Olli Rehn, whose very function it
  is to manage enlargement, with consequences that
  are considered by many as worrying
• What of Iceland and Norway, if ever they apply?
• The very notion of enlargement is questioned, as
  is questioned the contours of the European
  project

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For the best?

• Finland and Sweden access the leading system of
  European integration in a time of upheaval
• Interview with Esko Aho it was impossible to
  imagine that local development policy (important
  for the Center party) and welfare-state could be
  realized at the strictly national level
• Kalevi Sorsa, 1994 same idea
• Sweden and Finland momentous changes in the
  emphasis of societies from welfare to
  competition, emphasis on growth, changes in the
  corporatist systems
• Is the EU cause of these changes?
• Certainly pressures from EU deficits, common
  policies, etc
• But the choices were made in the 1970s already,
  and adaptation would have been forced
• Wouldnt this have happened anyway?
• From economic interdependence to political
  integration
• Finlands change especially interesting
• From Nokia to Nokia
• From neutrality to the EU

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How to influence?

• Strategies for the weak and small
• Denmark, Finland, Luxemburg, Ireland
• Voice?
• It requires power or some sort of leverage
• Common voice? Nordic voice?
• Scandinavism in the EU?
• The Nordic Council as a channel to emphasize
  Nordic policies?
• March 1995 Reykjavik Council meeting emphasizes
  the Council as a tool to pursue Nordic
  advantage
• Voice on specific matters
• The Nordic credo environment, political
  transparency, Baltic issues, Russia, democracy ?
• Exit?
• Remaining outside as a way to preserve national
  capacities
• Opting-out of significant common policies
• Emphasizing regional co-operations, beyond EU
  borders?

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Norway the outsider

• The campaign after the campaign
• February 2001, former Norwegian PM Jens
  Stoltenberg criticizes Norway's position (waiting
  next to the fax-machine...)?
• EU influences Norway, but Norway has very few
  ways to influence the EU
• Norway is an associated member of the Schengen
  space and of the CFSP (Common Foreign and
  Security Policy)?
• Limited possibility of influence
• Yet is it that important, especially in the case
  of the CFSP (Norway being a member of NATO)?
  Economically, is it important for oil-rich
  Norway?
• It can become important if a crisis occurs, or if
  NATO looses its signification...

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Iceland

• An economic health based on specific sectors
• Banking, financial markets, etc
• Trade through the EEA
• Security based on NATO and the presence of
  foreign troops
• A new situation since 2004?
• The evacuation of the Kevlavik base
• Financial crisis in 2008
• Perspectives for Iceland?

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Sweden and Denmark

• Emphasis on intergovernmentality
• Denmark in the British group on political
  co-operation
• Denmark remains active in Nordic co-operation, as
  a bridge between the Nordic countries and the EEC
  from 1973 to 1995
• A distinct aloofness towards common policies
• Sweden and Denmark outside the EMU
• Supranationality as the problem
• Denmark and NATO, Sweden and neutrality
• From neutrality to non-alignment in times of
  war...
• Optical illusion?
• Denmark and Sweden have their currency pegged to
  the Euro (the EMS bis)?
• The importance of symbols
• The national symbols
• Neighborhood policy?
• Sweden is active in the Baltic states
• Bailout of Estonia Sweden as a regional
  powerhouse?
• The crisis hits hard, and Swedish banks are
  exposed in the Baltic states

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Finland, the good pupil

• March 27th 1994, Kalevi Sorsa in a column for
  Turun Sanomat
• Two strategies
• Important for Finland to get a structured, strong
  Union protecting the country's interests the
  organization and common law as a guarantee
• At the same time, Finland is on the margins, and
  needs regional co-operations (an active Baltic
  policy)
• At first, aiming for the center
• Paavo Lipponen, Martti Ahtisaari
• EMU without referendum, 1999
• Following the Commission on enlargement and other
  issues
• Ambiguities and the burden of proof
• How much is too much? The balance between
  national interests and the common interest
• How to appear a committed participant in the
  CFSP?
• The utility argument cuts both ways the EU also
  has to prove it is useful...

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Change?

• The EU as a bargaining chip in the political game
• Missä EU, siellä ongelma... Jyrki Katainen ne
  jyrää meitä!
• The narrative of small states versus big
• Brussels is so far away turn-out in European
  elections, federalism, etc...
• End of the Lipponen era?
• From an active policy to a more reserved approach
• Does it work better?
• Loss of the Food Safety Agency
• Italy gets it, while Finland gets the Chemical
  safety agency
• Apart from the technicalities, the style bad
  blood because of Berlusconis comments
• Nizza treaty, 2003 draft constitutional treaty
• Finland feels the Commission and the big
  member-states do not pay attention
• EU enlargement to the East
• Loss of monopoly on EU-Russia relations?
• The problem of border tariffs with Russia
• 2006 presidency loss of enthusiasm
• 2007 the problem of article 141 and agricultural
  subsidies
• Has Finland lost its flair in EU affairs?

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Regional co-operations?

• A Nordic voice in the EU?
• Lee Miles one way to influence on subjects
  interesting the countries
• One way to manage co-operations à la carte?
• The Northern Dimension of the EU
• Finland launches it in 1995
• 2006, Finnish presidency emphasizes that
• Soft power and regional co-operation beyond EU
  borders
• A lame duck?
• A Nordic particularity in the EU? Channels of
  co-operation with Russia, the US, Canada?
• Bilateral relations with Russia?
• Nordstream...
• Regional co-operations through intergovernmental,
  informal organizations?
• The Nordic Council and its near abroad
• The Council of Baltic Sea States
• A Nordic bailout of Baltic economies?
• Co-operations under the level of the state?
• Regional co-operations Saint-Petersbourg, polar
  regions, etc...
• The emergence of a pole inside the EU?
• The idea of a multipolar EU

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Reluctant Europeans?

• First picture 2007 opening of the Finnish
  parliamentary session no European flag
• Does it mean anything?
• French official portraits
• European flag only for Sarkozy, and it seems that
  the photograph, Philippe Warrin, proposed it
• Political Europe is a dilemma, a problem for the
  Nordic Countries in the same way as it is for the
  countries of core-Europe
• Defiance towards the supranational nature of the
  EU

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New problems?

• Nordstream?
• The Arctic?
• Environment, Baltic Sea?
• Economic crisis?