The oil crunch:

1
The oil crunch first report of the UK Industry
Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security
Jeremy Leggett
2
We are living through a triple crunch Credit
the credit crunch Carbon the climate
crunch Oil the energy crunch
3
October 29th 2008 The first multi-company
attempt to sound an alarm bell on premature peak
oil www.peakoiltaskforce.net
4
US-48
USA 48 production versus discovery
billions of barrels
Production
Source ASPO
5
US-48
USA 48 production versus discovery
billions of barrels
Production
Source ASPO
6
US-48
North Sea oil production
Source Oil Drum Europe
7
Global production versus discovery

• Concerns
• Collapsing giant-field discovery
• Collapsing giant field production
• Flow rates fall from 2013

60
50
40
billions of barrels
30
20
10
?
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Past discovery
Future discovery
Past production
8
mbd
Flow rates versus depletion
10
3 month slip
8
0.9
6
Total
4
4.5 depletion
2
0
-2
Net
-4
Source ITPOES 2008
9
Global production versus discovery

• Lead times average 6-7 yrs
• EOR only slows production drop
• Phantom reserves

• Concerns
• Collapsing giant-field discovery
• Collapsing giant field production
• Flow rates fall from 2013

60
50
40
billions of barrels
30
20
10
?
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Past discovery
Future discovery
Past production
10
Real Discovery Trend
Global production versus discovery
60
50
40
billions of barrels
30
20
10
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Past discovery
Future discovery
Past production
Source ASPO
11

• Concerns
• Investment shortfall

Global production of oil and gas
billion barrels

12
Oil price vs investment
160
140
120
100

80
60
40
20
2004
2005
2008
2006
2007
13

• State of aged infrastructure
• Tar sand flow rates too low
• CTL flow rates too low
• GTL flow rates too low
• Absence of oil shale technology
• Gas needed for power
• Age skew and skills shortage

Global production of oil and gas

• Concerns
• Investment shortfall

billion barrels

14
Global production of oil and gas
billion barrels
Source ASPO
15
Supply versus demand (1.6 pa)
mbd
100
95
90
85
80
75
Source ITPOES 2008
16
Global production of oil
The gap to make up for depletion in existing
fields Six Saudi Arabias
mbd
100
95
90
85
80
75
Source IEA WEO 2008
17
Global production of oil
The gap to make up for depletion in existing
fields Six Saudi Arabias
mbd
100
95
90
85
80
75
Source IEA WEO 2008
18
Mobilisation rates
Source ITPOES 2008
19
Thank you
jeremy.leggett_at_solarcentury.com www.solarcentu
ry.com www.solar-aid.org