Indias changing foreign Policy and energy security

1
Indias changing foreign Policy and energy
security

• Dr Marie Lall
• Chatham House, ISAS
• and
• University of London

2
Introduction

• The role of the economy in FP making
• The role of energy in Indias search for a global
  role.
• Little difference UPA or NDA governments
• The West/ US is mystified
• - The Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline
• - The nuclear deal
• - Indo-Myanmar relations.

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The Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline

• Indias need for gas
• Indias need for regional peace and stability
  the peace process with Pakistan
• Economic viability and logistical feasibility
• The issues security, leverage, the US
• A win-win situation vs. the international
  political acceptability

4
The nuclear deal

• The reason for the deal energy vs. great power
  status
• The conflicting agendas between the US and India
• Emerging regional issues

5
US vs. Indian Priorities

• US
• Bring India into the NPT framework
• Increased trade the balance of trade deficit
• Asian balance of power counterweight to Chinas
  rise
• Support for increased democratisation of the
  middle East
• Support in the anti Iran campaign

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US vs. Indian Priorities (2)

• India
• Recognition as a responsible nuclear weapons
  state
• Access to fissile material and latest nuclear
  technology
• Asian balance of power the issue of US support
  to Pakistan and the rise of China
• The issue of sovereignty

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Emerging issues

• Repercussions in Pakistan
• Chinas reaction
• Is India joining the western camp?

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India-Myanmar relations

• The changed relationship
• The North East
• The economic factor
• The energy security factor
• The China factor

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OPEN ROUTES TO CHINA REVIVE/ RECONSTRUCT
STILWELL ROAD
Approx. Distance overland Nampong to New Delhi
2600km Nampong to Kolkata 1500km Nampong to
Kunming 1726km
NAMPONG
Pangsau Pass
Guwahati
Mytkina
KUNMING
Bhamo
Kolkata
Mandalay
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India in Myanmar

• Indian Diaspora
• Indian businesses
• Indian trade (Singapore banking)
• Government agreements (including joint anti
  insurgency operations and arms trade)
• Infrastructure developments (Sittwe port, Trans
  Asia highway, rail link)
• Energy exploration (gas, interest in oil)

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(No Transcript)
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Indias energy stakes in Myanmar

• A1 (part ONGC and GAIL)
• A3 (part ONGC and GAIL)
• A2 (ESSAR) drilling early next year
• L (ESSAR)
• Bid for M 11 By Sun group and Russia
• Potential deep sea blocks (AD and MD)

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The actual issues in India

• General ambivalence due to traditional
  ethical/moralistic foreign policy vis-à-vis
  Myanmar
• Various ministries with different world views
  (petroleum and trade ministries vs. MEA and
  defense)
• evidence in the latest war of words, but
  interviews point to this being a long standing
  problem.

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The current situation

• Interview in NPT
• India did not get the gas deal because they took
  too long. They were not perceived as sincere.
• China offers political support.
• Now there are 8 new deep sea blocks on offer on
  the Rakhine coast where India can bid. 3 have
  been earmarked for India.
• The NE can be developed for refining.

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Conclusion

• US is trying to integrate India into its
  strategic alliance to support its world vision.
• Does not understand that India is coming at it on
  its own terms and with its own priorities.