PostSoviet Armenia: Present Developments and Future Visions

1
Post-Soviet Armenia Present Developments and
Future Visions
Jean Monnet European Center 8th International
Summer School

• Innsbruck, Austria
• 7 September, 2007

Hovhannes J. Grigoryan Yerevan State University,
Armenia
2
Content

• Armenia facts and developments
• Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present of CIS
  countries
• European Neighborhood Policy and Armenia

3
Armenia
4
(No Transcript)
5
1. Armenia facts
6
Armenia facts
7
Armenia a rapidly growing economy
8
Armenia budget growth 1997-2007
9
Armenia GDP per capita 1997-2007
10
Armenia GDP growth rate 2003-2007
11
Brief History

• First state founded 161 BC
• First country to adopt Christianity as state
  religion in 301AD
• Own alphabet 405AD
• Was divided between Persia and Byzantium in 387AD
• Was divided between Persia and Roman Empire in
  591AD
• New kingdom established 869AD
• Lost independence 1375, Kilikia Empire
• 600 years of division between Persia and Osmans,
  between Persia and Turks, between Turkey and
  Russia
• Part of Russian Empire (East Armenia) from 1828
• Armenian Genocide in 1915 (in East Turkey), about
  1.5 mln Armenians killed and deported, not
  accepted by Turkey
• Independence of Eastern Armenia 1918-1920,
  first state

12
Brief history (continued)

• Soviet domination 1920-1991
• Independence, 1991, 99 voted yes
• Devastating Earthquake 1988, Spitak, 25000
  dead, 25000 lost homes
• War with Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh,
  1988-1994
• Blockade Closed border with Turkey, war with
  Azerbaijan, unstable situation in Georgia and
  Iran
• In 1997 - Poverty 60 Migration 30, decline
  of all indicators
• 1998-2007 era of economical revival, lots of
  investments from Diaspora (over 7mln Armenians
  worldwide), massive constructions, economical
  growth of 11-14 per year, decrease of
  unemployment rate and poverty rate
• Currently most developed country in Caucasus,
  largest Army, highest rates of growth, flexible
  policy with Russia, US and EU

13
2. Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present
14
2. Collapse of Soviet Union
15
Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present

• Features of Soviet Economy
• Planned economical development, figures were
  falsified, quantitative approach to reality
• No private property, so called homo sovietikus
  approach to property
• Cohesion of production mechanisms throughout the
  country, so that the independent state can not
  practically survive

16
Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present

• Features of Soviet Politics
• Centralized system of decision making, all
  decisions were eventually made in Kremlin
• Total control of political domain by one party
  (communists), no variety of opinions, no speech
  freedom
• Total control of public domain (KGB), prosecution
  of those, who rebel against the system

17
Soviet Past and Post-Soviet Present

• Features of Soviet Culture
• So called homo-sovietikus, disrespect of public
  property no ones property
• Community and not a person is a target strong
  social control
• Need for collection uncertainty of future and
  constant cataclysms make the people to live for
  tomorrow rather than today
• Private domain and public domain two different
  worlds, - reality as a kitchen table tool only

18
Transition to Post-Soviet Lifestyle

• Decrease of almost all economical indexes
  poverty, unemployment, migration
• Wild liberalization of state property almost
  80 went to 10 of former commissioners
• Thrift of corruption in state organs, the main
  resource information, access to what is free
• Diversification of political life rise of
  parties (up to 100-200 parties), gas in the
  bottle
• Democratization process rather as a target,
  than as a mean to democracy

19
Transition to Post-Soviet Lifestyle (continued)

• Loss of primary infrastructures need for road
  reconstruction, drinking and sewerage pipeline
  installation
• Growing dependency on Russia as for energy
  resources, military protection and huge market of
  employment (20-40 population of CIS countries
  are labor migrants in Russia)
• Rise of nationalism
• Liberal (fresh air after Soviet suppressions)
• Radical (anti-Russian, anti-Western,
  anti-newcomers)

20
Transition to Post-Soviet Lifestyle (continued)

• Formation of Commonwealth of Independent States
  (CIS) first as a solution, then as a problem
• Loss and search of identity which way to go,
  which are the national priorities, and which
  international community to integrate to
• European Community (Ukraine, Georgia)
• Russia and satellites (Armenia, Kyrgyzstan)
• Muslim world (Azerbaijan, Central Asia)

21
3. European Neighborhood Policy
22
3. European Neighborhood Policy Outline

• Developed in 2004
• Objective 1 avoiding the emergence of new
  dividing lines between the enlarged EU and
  neighbors
• Objective 2 to share the benefits of the EUs
  2004 enlargement with neighboring countries to
  share the benefits of the EUs 2004 enlargement
  with neighboring countries
• Countries Covered Algeria, Armenia,
  Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel,
  Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, the
  Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine
  

23
3. European Neighborhood Policy Components

• The EU offers our neighbours a privileged
  relationship, building upon a mutual commitment
  to common values
• Democracy and human rights
• Rule of law, good governance
• Market economy principles and sustainable
  development
• Intensified political, economical, security and
  cultural relations with EU

24
3. European Neighborhood Policy and Armenia

• The perspective of moving beyond cooperation to a
  significant degree of integration including
  through a stake in the EUs Internal Market, and
  the possibility for Armenia to participate
  progressively in key aspects of EU policies and
  programmes
• An upgrade in the scope and intensity of
  political cooperation, through further
  development of mechanisms for political dialogue
• Continuing strong EU commitment to support the
  settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
  drawing on the instruments at the EUs disposal,
  and in close consultation with the OSCE. The EU
  is ready to consider ways to strengthen further
  its engagement in conflict resolution and post
  conflict rehabilitation

25
3. European Neighborhood Policy and Armenia

• Deepening trade and economic relations providing
  the opportunity for convergence of economic
  legislation, the opening of economies to each
  other and the continued reduction of non-tariff
  barriers to trade, which will stimulate
  investment, exports and growth
• Increased financial support EU financial
  assistance for Armenia will be available to
  support the actions identified in the present
  document. The Commission is furthermore proposing
  a new European Neighbourhood and Partnership
  Instrument (ENPI) for this purpose, which will
  cover the main part of EU financial assistance
  and will include aspects of cross-border and
  trans-national cooperation. The Commission will
  also propose an extension of the EIB mandate to
  Armenia as of 2007

26
3. European Neighborhood Policy and Armenia

• Possibilities of gradual opening of or reinforced
  participation in certain Community programmes,
  promoting economic, cultural, educational,
  environmental, technical and scientific links
• Support including technical assistance and
  twinning to meet EU norms and standards, and
  targeted advice and support for legislative
  approximation through a mechanism such as TAIEX
• Establish a dialogue, in accordance with the
  acquis, on matters related to the movement of
  people, including on readmission and visa,
  between the EU and Armenia
• In light of the fulfilment of the objectives of
  this Action Plan and of the overall evolution of
  EU Armenia relations, consideration will be
  given in due time to the possibility of a new
  enhanced contractual relationship.

27
Factor of Europe Armenian perspective

• Europe as a future
• Europe is defined as a standard of goodness, of
  high quality and guarantees
• Europe as a threat to national values
• Europe is defined as a mean of political,
  social, economical and, most important cultural
  expansion

28
Europe as a future Identity 1

• Large number of politicians and people state that
  Armenians are Europeans
• Cultural similarities
• Respect to European values (democracy, human
  rights, equality, etc.)
• Vitality of economical and political integration
• Europe on everyday life - level

29
Europe as a threat Identity 2

• National values can be demolished under
  tendencies of westernization and globalization
• Gay/lesbian/sects/crime expansion big bang in
  the bottle
• Freedom to some extend or freedom without borders?

30
Conclusions

• EU wants to deal with its Eastern partners
  developing policies for basically security and
  economical reasons
• However, the matter of further integration of
  post-Soviet countries (particularly Armenia) is
  highly a political matter relations with Russia
  are of great importance
• Cultural differences between European traditions
  and Soviet-post-Soviet values are seen to be
  possible to overcome, unless common language on
  economical and political level can be found

31
Thank you for your attention?