NASA/LWS Observation-Based Solar Wind Model

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NASA Grant NAG5-12527 and NASA Interagency
Transfer W-10,118Period of Performance Sep. 1,
2002 - Aug. 31, 2005
We predicted disturbances in the ecliptic plane
IMF out to 10 AU during the October-November 2003
Halloween events. Red lines indicate away
sectors (field lines directed outward from the
Sun) and blue lines show toward sectors
(inward-directed field lines).
We also used the outputs of the solar wind model
to predict the Ap geomagnetic storm index, a key
space weather indicator. We compared the observed
AP (blue) with our prediction (red) and evaluated
our forecast skill. Green is the difference.
EXPI, NOAA/SEC, UAH and GI/UAF
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• Project Goal
• We want to understand the relationship between
  the observed features on the Sun and the behavior
  of the solar wind, the IMF, and the terrestrial
  response over the 11-year solar activity cycle.
• Significance
• The solar wind is a key link in the chain of
  space weather extending from the Sun to the Earth
  and beyond. Understanding it is critical to
  predicting geomagnetic storms and space radiation
  hazards.
• What we are doing
• We are developing a Hybrid Kinematic/3D MHD solar
  wind model (H3DM) and using it to study the
  causes of IMF Bz over the solar activity cycle.
• Key features of the system are it couples two
  mature solar wind models - HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-F
  ry) and IGMV (Interplanetary Global Model,
  Vectorized) it is driven by solar observations
  and provides time-dependent solar wind
  conditions at the locations of spacecraft in
  interplanetary space.
• What weve done so far
• Using only solar observations as inputs, we
  simulated the propagation of interplanetary
  shocks from the Sun to beyond 10 AU during the
  Halloween event period (Oct.Nov., 2003).
• We compared HAF model simulation results with
  observations from spacecraft including Advanced
  Composition Explorer (ACE), Mars Global Surveyor
  (MGS), Ulysses, Cassini, Voyager 1 and 2.
• The realistic simulations allowed us to interpret
  spacecraft observations at Earth and Mars
  following the Oct. 28, 2003, X17 solar event.
• We evaluated IGMV-based predictions of the Ap
  geomagnetic index for the years 1994, 1995 and
  2002.
• Scientific impact during the first two years of
  the project
• We published 22 papers in scientific journals (or
  are in press), 25 were submitted or in
  preparation, and we made 40 presentations at
  organized national and international scientific
  meetings.