Workforce planning in healthcare: Ireland

1
Workforce planning in healthcare Ireland

• Jasmina Behan
• Skills and Labour Market Research Unit, Training
  and Employment Authority (FÁS) and Expert Group
  on Future Skills Needs
• April 2010

2
Outline

• Institutional context
• Scope
• Methodology
• An example
• Recommendation

3
Institutional context

• Expert Group on Future Skills Needs EGFSN
• Skills and Labour Market Research Unit, FÁS
• National Skills Database
• Ministry for Health and Children
• Health Service Executive
• A quantitative tool for workforce planning in
  healthcare example simulations (2009)

4
Task

• To develop quantitative tool
• To assess balance between demand and supply under
  various scenarios

5
Scope

• General practitioner
• Medical consultant
• Medicine
• Pathology
• Surgery
• Obstetrics/gynecology
• Paediatrics
• Emergency medicine
• Anaesthesia
• Psychiatry
• Radiology
• Public health medicine
• Nurse
• Therapists
• Speech and language therapist
• Radiation therapist
• Physiotherapist
• Health care assistant
• Home help

6
Output

• Outline of the situation in 2008 (demand and
  supply)
• Illustration 1 what happens if population grows,
  sourcing is limited to domestic supply and
  healthcare model remains unchanged
• Illustration 2 what happens if selected
  parameters underpinning the model change

7
Forecasting method

• Expansion demand (2008-2020)
• Baseline headcount/population ratio constant
  (CSO pop projections)
• Scenarios
• Existing policy targets
• Target population (e.g. children, 65 etc.)
• Segment of service (e.g. public only)
• Replacement demand (control for age, gender,
  nationality, part time work)
• Supply
• Medical practitioners cohort analysis
• Graduate output (control for attrition, first
  destination, gender and part time work)
• Alternative pools (maternity leave, Irish
  students abroad, non-Irish)

8
An example General practitioners
Variable Value
Employment 2,500
Current density (per 100,000 pop) 58
Share of females 37
Annual increase in female share (points) 0.02
Share of non-Irish 5
Share of part-timers in male stock 4
Share of part-timers in female stock 20
Head count to WTE ratio 0.5
Estimated annual retirement 55-85
Estimated annual early retirement 11-13
Employment 65 (annual estimate) 10-30
Share of female retirees 12
Attrition due to illness, emigration etc. 0.5 (15)
9
Assumptions
Variable Value
Share of females on maternity 3 (40)
Share returning from maternity 90
Share of returnees working part time 75
Graduate intake 120
Cumulative attrition rate (training) 3
Share female graduates 78
FD employment in Ireland 96
FD employment part-time 5
Actual from training 109
Annual immigration 0
10
Baseline projections
11
Baseline projections
12
Baseline vs. scenario
13
Recommendations

• Address data gap
• Adopt an integrated approach in setting level and
  type of service provision
• Approach workforce planning as an ongoing process