THE END OF THE WORLD

1
THE END OF THE WORLD

• 12 FEBRUARY 2003
• J GEORGE CALDWELL PhD
• LUSAKA, ZAMBIA

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INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

• TOPIC THE END OF THE INDUSTRIAL AGE ON PLANET
  EARTH
• WHY AND HOW IT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN
• A BETTER SYSTEM OF PLANETARY MANAGEMENT AND HOW
  TO IMPLEMENT IT AFTER THE INDUSTRIAL AGE IS OVER
• POINTS OF DISCUSSION
• THE CURRENT SITUATION AND CURRENT TRENDS
• RELATIONSHIP OF GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND
  POPULATION TO ENERGY AVAILABILITY
• INDUSTRIAL AGE OVER BY 2050 (END OF PETROLEUM
  AGE) POPULATION FALLS TO PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS
• WILL INDUSTRIAL AGE LAST TO 2050? WHAT MIGHT
  CHANGE THIS? (FAMINE, PLAGUE, WAR)
• THE POTENTIAL IMPACT AND LIKELIHOOD OF GLOBAL
  NUCLEAR WAR

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INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY (CONTD)

• WHAT CAN BE DONE (TO REDUCE FURTHER DAMAGE TO THE
  ENVIRONMENT, TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF LONG-TERM
  SURVIVAL FOR MANKIND AND THE REST OF THE
  BIOSPHERE)?
• DEVELOPMENT AND DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION
  ABOUT PLANETARY MANAGEMENT FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL
• OPTIMAL POPULATION (SIZE AND COMPOSITION) FOR
  LONG-TERM SURVIVAL (MINIMAL-REGRET POPULATION)
• ALTERNATIVE PARADIGMS FOR PLANETARY MANAGEMENT
  (SYNARCHY)
• FOUNDATION WEBSITES, DEPARTMENTS OF PLANETARY
  MANAGEMENT
• PRESERVATION OF SPECIES (SEED BANKS, ISLANDS)
• PLANNING AND PREPARATION FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF A
  NEW WORLD ORDER TO FOLLOW THE INDUSTRIAL AGE

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THE STATE OF THE WORLD

• POPULATION EXPLODING. 6 BILLION, 80 MILLION MORE
  EVERY YEAR (1.3 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE)
• INDUSTRIALIZATION EXPLODING. 3 ANNUAL INCREASE
  IN PRODUCTION
• ENVIRONMENT RAPID DESTRUCTION
• POLLUTION OF AIR, LAND, SEAS
• DESTRUCTION OF WILDLIFE HABITAT, MASS EXTINCTION
• DESTRUCTION OF FORESTS

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STATE OF THE WORLD (CONTD)
EFFECT ON BIODIVERSITY MASS EXTINCTION (THE
6TH EXTINCTION). 30,000 SPECIES PER YEAR (1.7
MILLION KNOWN SPECIES OF EST. 5-30
MILLION) SUMMARY LARGE HUMAN POPULATION AND
INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY ARE EXTERMINATING VAST
NUMBERS OF SPECIES, AND RISKING THE DESTRUCTION
OF THE BIOSPHERE
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CURRENT TRENDS
ECOLOGICALLY DIVERSE FORESTS BEING DESTROYED AT
THE RATE OF 16 MILLION HECTARES PER YEAR 94 OF
FORESTS OF 60 YEARS AGO DESTROYED, FORESTS
DISAPPEARED IN 25 COUNTRIES IN PAST 20 YEARS EVEN
IF BIRTH RATES MAGICALLY DROP TO REPLACEMENT
LEVEL EVERYWHERE, POPULATION WILL SOAR TO 9
BILLION BY 2050 CURRENT INDUSTRIAL POPULATION
1/6 OF TOTAL. ALL COUNTRIES WANT TO INDUSTRIALIZE
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CURRENT TRENDS (CONTD)

• SUMMARY POPULATION WILL SOAR, INDUSTRIALIZATION
  WILL DOUBLE EVERY 18 YEARS
• ALL THE WORLDS COUNTRIES ARE COMMITTED TO
  CONTINUED GROWTH (POPULATION AND INDUSTRIAL)
• UNDER THE CURRENT SYSTEM OF WORLD GOVERNMENT, BY
  2050
• 1.5 MILLION SPECIES WILL BE DESTROYED
• MOST WILDLIFE HABITAT DESTROYED
• ALL PETROLEUM GONE
• POSSIBLE DEATH OF THE BIOSPHERE

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CURRENT TRENDS (CONTD)
CURRENT TRENDS (CONTD)
HALF OF WORLDS PETROLEUM IS GONE, REMAINDER GONE
BY 2050 USING SOLAR ENERGY, THE PLANET CAN
SUPPORT ONLY 300-500 MILLION PEOPLE AT A LOW
LEVEL OF LIVING, OR TEN MILLION PEOPLE AT A HIGH
LEVEL OF LIVING
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WHAT CAN CHANGE THINGS?
BIRTH RATE REDUCTION NO (TO 9 BILLION BY 2050,
EVEN UNDER WILDEST ASSUMPTIONS) ASTEROID,
VOLCANOES, GREENHOUSE EFFECT YES, BUT THEN
EVERYTHING IS GONE, ANYWAY FAMINE AS LONG AS
FOSSIL FUELS LAST, THE WORLD CAN EASILY FEED 9
BILLION (E.G., DESTROY ALL FORESTS, STOP EATING
MEAT) GMOs? DISEASE EVEN HIV/AIDS IS HAVING NO
LONG-TERM IMPACT ON POP. GROWTH WAR GLOBAL
NUCLEAR WAR CAN DRAMATICALLY REDUCE POPULATION
AND INDUSTRIALIZATION, WITHOUT DESTROYING THE
BIOSPHERE
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WHAT CAN WAR ACCOMPLISH?
USA AND RUSSIA EACH POSSESS 7,000 STRATEGIC
NUCLEAR WEAPONS UNDER START II, EACH WILL STILL
HAVE 3,500 BY 2007 USA AND RUSSIA ARE BOTH
COMMITTED TO PEACE. WHAT ELSE IS POSSIBLE? AN
ATTACK OF 1,000 SUITCASE BOMBS CAN DESTROY 3/4
OF EARTHS TOTAL CITY POPULATION (THERE ARE ABOUT
3,500 CITIES OF POP. OVER 100,000)
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WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR?

• BETWEEN USA AND RUSSIA LOW
• FROM A SUITCASE-BOMB ATTACK FROM A ROGUE NATION
  OR TERRORIST GROUP HIGH
• MOTIVE
• POLITICS OF ENVY 80 MILLION MORE DESPERATELY
  POOR PEOPLE EVERY YEAR
• GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR CAN STOP THE RELENTLESS
  DESTRUCTION OF SPECIES BY INDUSTRIALIZATION AND
  OVERPOPULATION
• NO OTHER SOLUTION (TO ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION
  OR HUMAN MISERY) IS AT HAND

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WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? (CONTD)

• MOTIVE (CONTD)
• AS FOSSIL FUELS DECLINE, MASS STARVATION WILL
  BEGIN. ALL NATIONS WILL NOT SIT AROUND AND ALL
  STARVE TO DEATHGLOBAL WAR WILL COME.
• TIMING THE SOONER GLOBAL WAR OCCURS, THE MORE
  SPECIES ARE SAVED FROM EXTINCTION. SOONER IS
  BETTER THAN LATER IF WAIT TOO LONG, NOTHING LEFT
  TO WIN!

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WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR? (CONTD)

• MOTIVE CLEAR, WHAT ABOUT MEANS, OPPORTUNITY?
• SUFFICIENT PLUTONIUM HAS BEEN LOST TO PRODUCE
  1,000 NUCLEAR BOMBS
• WORLDS URANIUM SUPPLY WILL LAST ONLY IF USED IN
  FAST BREEDER REACTORS, WHICH PRODUCE PLUTONIUM --
  LOTS OF IT, AND EVERYWHERE!
• ROGUE NATIONS ARE ALREADY SOLICITING PLUTONIUM
  (DEMAND)
• RUSSIAS SCIENTISTS ARE ON HARD TIMES AND
  RUSSIAS FAST BREEDER REACTORS ARE PRODUCING MUCH
  PLUTONIUM (SUPPLY)
• DONT NEED MISSILES OR AIRCRAFT SUITCASE BOMBS
  WORK FINE (MASS IMMIGRATION, TRANSPORTATION,
  POROUS BORDERS)

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WHAT CAN BE DONE TO ADDRESS THIS PROBLEM?
TWO APPROACHES 1. ATTEMPT TO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NUCLEAR WAR OR OTHER GLOBAL
CATASTROPHE -- BUT ALL ATTEMPTS TO DO THIS HAVE
FAILED (HUMAN POP. AND INDUSTRIALIZATION CONTINUE
TO GROW) 2. RECOGNIZE THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF WAR
OR OTHER CATASTROPHE IS GREAT, AND THE FACTORS
THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO IT ARE INCREASING IN
STRENGTH, AND PREPARE FOR THE POST-INDUSTRIAL ERA
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PLANNING FOR THE POST-INDUSTRIAL ERA

• WHAT TO DO?
• TAKE COUNTERMEASURES TO REDUCE THE DESTRUCTION
  FROM WAR OR OTHER CATASTROPHE, AND FACILITATE
  RECOVERY
• PLAN, ANALYZE, DISTRIBUTE INFORMATION
• ON WHAT IS HAPPENING, ON OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION
  SIZE AND COMPOSITION, ON PLANETARY MANAGEMENT
  SYSTEM FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL
• ESTABLISH DISTRIBUTED SEED BANKS
• ESTABLISH LARGE NATURE RESERVES
• PREPARE FOR A REDUCED WORLD POPULATION
• DEVELOP APPROACHES FOR PLANETARY MANAGEMENT
• CONDUCT SOCIAL / POLITICAL / MILITARY / RELIGIOUS
  PREPARATION

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OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION
IF GLOBAL WAR IS VERY LIKELY, WHAT SIZE AND
COMPOSITION HUMAN POPULATION SHOULD THE VICTOR
SEEK? PROPOSAL A POPULATION SIZE AND COMPOSITION
THAT MAXIMIZES THE LONG-TERM SURVIVABILITY OF
HUMAN BEINGS AND OTHER SPECIES SOLAR ENERGY CAN
SUPPORT 300-500 MILLION PEOPLE AT A LOW LEVEL OF
LIVING, 10 MILLION PEOPLE AT A HIGH LEVEL OF
LIVING UNDER PRIMITIVE AGRICULTURE, THE PLANET
SUPPORTED 300 MILLION FOR 10,000 YEARS UNDER
HUNTER-GATHERER SYSTEM, THE PLANET SUPPORTED 5-20
MILLION FOR MILLIONS OF YEARS
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OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION (CONTD)

• OPTIMAL HUMAN POPULATION THE SMALLEST POPULATION
  THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME.
  (MINIMIZE THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION OF
  MANKIND AND DESTRUCTION OF THE BIOSPHERE)
• PROPOSED SOLUTION (MINIMAL REGRET POPULATION)
• SINGLE-NATION INDUSTRIAL POPULATION OF 5 MILLION
  (CITY)
• GLOBALLY-DISTRIBUTED HUNTER-GATHERER POPULATION
  OF 5 MILLION (COUNTRY)

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ALTERNATIVE PARADIGMS FOR PLANETARY MANAGEMENT

• CURRENT SYSTEM (ECONOMICS, CAPITALISM, LIBERAL
  DEMOCRACY, 200 INDEPENDENT NATIONS) WAS GREAT
  FOR EXPLORING AND DEVELOPING THE PLANET, BUT IS
  NOW RAVAGING THE BIOSPHERE
• NEED A SINGLE HIERARCHICAL, AUTHORITATIVE
  ORGANIZATION IN CHARGE OF THE PLANETS MANAGEMENT
• MORE LIKE A BUSINESS, OR MILITARY OPERATION, OR
  RELIGIOUS ORDER, THAN A TRADITIONAL GOVERNMENT
• MORE LIKE THE MGMT. OF A SHIP (SPACESHIP EARTH)
• EXAMPLES
• PLATOS REPUBLIC GUARDIANS (RULERS (GOVT)),
  AUXILIARIES (MIL., EXEC., POLICE), REST (EC.
  ACTIVITIES)
• SAINT-YVES DALVEYDRES SYNARCHY GOVERNMENTAL
  AUTHORITY CONTOLS RELIGION, MILITARY, EDUCATION

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CONCLUSION

• THE INDUSTRIAL AGE WILL END BY 2050, WHEN FOSSIL
  FUEL IS GONE
• GLOBAL HUMAN POPULATION WILL FALL TO A FEW
  HUNDRED MILLION OR LESS
• CATASTROPHE THEORY (RENE THOM)
• DEFINITION DESTABILIZATION OF A DYNAMIC SYSTEM
• CATASTROPHES ARE INEVITABLE
• WITH CAREFUL PLANNING AND PREPARATION, THE
  OUTCOME CAN BE AFFECTED, THE DAMAGE REDUCED
• A LONG-TERM-SUSTAINABLE PLANETARY MANAGEMENT
  SYSTEM CAN BE ESTABLISHED BY
• DETERMINING FEASIBLE PLANETARY MANAGEMENT
  SYSTEMS
• SENSITIZING THE POPULATION TO THE NEED FOR CHANGE
• DISSEMINATING INFORMATION, SO THAT IT IS
  AVAILABLE WHEN NEEDED

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CONCLUSION (CONTD)

• THE CHOICE FACING MANKIND TODAY IS
• EXTINCTION OF MANKIND
• MANKIND SURVIVES, BUT IN A SEVERELY DAMAGED
  BIOSPHERE
• THE MASS SPECIES EXTINCTION IS IS STOPPED, AND
  MANKIND SURVIVES IN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME
  BIOSPHERE IN WHICH IT EVOLVED
• THE INDUSTRIAL AGE WILL END SOON AND QUICKLY THE
  TIME TO ACT TO PREPARE FOR A BETTER FUTURE IS
  NOW.
• THE CURRENT SYSTEM OF PLANETARY MANAGEMENT IS
  DESTROYING THE PLANET A SYNARCHIC GOVERNMENT OF
  A MINIMAL-REGRET POPULATION WILL ASSURE LONG-TERM
  SURVIVAL IN A HEALTHY, BOUNTEOUS BIOSPHERE
• THE CHOICE IS YOURS, AND YOUR GENERATIONS WHAT
  WILL IT BE?

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