Logistic????

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Logistic????

• ????????????

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• Logistic regression
• ??????????????????????????????????????????
  ????(?????? ??????????)?

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• ?????,??????????
• ???????????
• ??????????
• ????????????,??????
• ?????
• ?????????? ????????
• ?
• ????????????????????????????????,??????????
  

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• Logistic?????
• Logistic?? ??? ??????
• ???
• ??????
• ???
• 11????
• ??Logistic?? 1m????
• mn????

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• Logistic???????????, ?????,??????????????,
  ????????????????????

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• ????????????????????,????56???????65?????????????
  ,?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?11??????,??????????

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• ???????Y 1 ??????
• 0 ??????
• ????????????n?,?????X1,X2,.Xn
• ?n???????????????????PP(Y1 (X1,X2,.Xn)

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• ??Logistic????
• Logistic???logit??

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• (1)????
• (2)????
• ???????????????????,??S?????????,????????,???????,
  ??????????????????????????????1970?,COX???????????
  Logit???

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• ???Logit????????????????????????????
• OddsP/1-P,???????Ln(P/1-P)
• ??P??0.5????,???01?????,????Logit(P)????
• P0 Logit(P)Ln(0/1)-???
• P0.5 Logit(P)Ln(0.5/0.5)0
• P1 Logit(P)Ln(1/0)???
• Logit(P )???????(-?, -?)

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• Logit??
• ????????
• logit P

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??,?????,????????
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??????

• ??Logistic??????????i
• ??? ????????????0?,???????????????????
• ?i??
• ???????????????????,
• ?n????????????logit??????????(???)(odds
  ratio)??????

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1??????????????? (Maximum likehood estimate)
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• ?????????????????????????,????????????????????(??
  ?????????????????),????????????????????

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??????

• ?????(likehood ratio test)
• ????????????????????????????????????????,?
  ????G (??Deviance)?
• G-2(ln Lp-ln Lk)
• ??????, G?????????????????2???

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• ????(score test)
• ?????????????????,???????????,???????????,?
  ???????????(??????)?????,??????????????S ???????,
  S?????????????????2???

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• Wald??( wald test)
• ????t??,????u
• u??????,?????????
• Logistic?????????

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• ???????,????????,???????????,?????????????
  Wald??????????????,????????????????????

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?????????

• ???????,?????????????????????,??bi??xi?????
  ??, logit P???????

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• ????????????
• ?????(relative risk) RRP1/P2
• ?? OddsP/(1-P)
• ??? ORP1/(1-P1)/P2/(1-P2)
• ?????????,ORRR

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• ?P??????X????????,??????P???????1-P ?????(odds),
  logit P??odds?????
• ???
• ????????????????????????(odds),?oddsp/1-p????????
  ????(Odds Ratio),??OR?

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• Logistic???????(b0)??,??????????/???????,?????????
  ?????????????
• Logistic????????( bi )??,???????????,?????????????
  ??????????,?OR?????

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• ????xi???????,?????,??1,2,,k????k?????????Logisti
  c?????????????k-1?????????(design/dummy
  variable),??????????????,???????????????,?????,???
  ???

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• ????xi??????,???????????,?????????????????????,??
  ????????0,1,2,???, e(bi) ??xi???????????, e(k
  bi)??xi??k?????????????????????,???????????
• ????xi???????, e(bi)??xi??????????????

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• ???Logistic?????,??????????????????????????
  ??????????????, Logistic?????????????,??????

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• ??Wald??,??Logistic????bi??u???????????
• ??,???e(bi)??????

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?? Logistic??????

• ????????????
• ???????,???????????????????????,???????????
  ?????????????????????????????F???,????????????????
  ???????

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• ?????,?????????????????,?????????Wald???

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?? Logistic?????

• ??/???????,?????????
• ???????????????,???????????

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• ??????????,??????
• ????
• ??????????,?Mantel-Haensze
• ??????(1)??????,????
• ????????(2)??????,??
• ?????(3)????????????
• ????

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• ???Logistic??????
• (1)??????????????(????????????????
• (2)?????????(??????),???????????????,?????????????
  ????????)
• (3)????????
• (4)????????????5-10??

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????

• ??????????????????,?????Logistic ?????
• ??????????? Analyze ? ? Regression (????) ? ?
  Binary Logictic (????? Logictic ????,?? Logistic
  Regression ?? ? ? ?????????  Dependent (???)??? ?
  ?sex?age ????????????? Covariats(???,??????) ???,

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• Forward LR ( ????????? likelihood  ratio,LR)?
  ????? Save ?,? Predicted values? Influence ?
  Residuls ??????????  ? Continue ? ????? Options
  ?,? Statistics and Plot ?????????? ? Continue ? 
  OK ?

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• ???
• ?????????,???????????????,???????????K????????,???
  ?????K-1?????Categorical??????????
• ????????
• ????????,????????LogitP?????,??????,????????????,?
  ????????

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• SPSS? Categorical ????
• Indicator???? ,????
• ???????????????????

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???Logistic??

• ???????Logistic????
• ????????2,???????????????????,????????????????Logi
  t?????
• ????????????????????,?????Logit????????????1,2,3,4
  ,???????????1? ?2? ?3? ?4

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?n??????????
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• ?????????????????????????,?????????????????Lgistic
  ?????
• ??????,????????OR????????????,????????????????????

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SPSS????

• Analyze ? ? Regression (????) ? ? Ordinal ?
  Dependent (???)??? ? Covariats(????????),Factor?
  (????)-ok

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• ???????Logistic????

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• Analyze ? ? Regression (????) ? ? Multinomial
  ? Dependent (???)??? ? Covariats(????????),Fact
  or?(????)-OK

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• ???????????????????????,????????????????
• ?????Logistic????
• ????????

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• ?????????????Logistic????????,????????????????????
  ,??????Logistic?????
• ??Logistic????????????,????Logistic???????

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?????????

• (?)????????---???logistic??
• ???????????????,????????????,?????????????,???????
  ???
• (?)???????---??logistic??
• ??????(matching),?????????????????????,???????????
  ??????????????????????

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??logistic??
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• ???????---??logistic??
• 1?????(category matching)??????????,?????????????
  ????????,65?????1/3,?????????
• 2?????(individual matching)??????????????????????
  11??????(pair matching), 12,? ,1m????????
• ???????????????,????????????????,???????

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• ??????,??????????????,??????????????logistic??
  ???????????????????????????????????,??????????????
  ???????,??????????????,????????????

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13?????
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• Analyze ? ? Regression (????) ? ? Multinomial ?
  Dependent (???)??? ? Covariats(????????),Factor?
  (????)-Model??Include intercept in model
  continue-OK