Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models

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Systems Thinking and Decision Making Models

• Mediated Modeling
• 1/16/07

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The goal is to develop an understanding of the
potential and limitations of Mediated Modeling as
a tool for the involvement of stakeholders in
complex decision-making.
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By the end of this course, you learned

• To recognize situations in which Mediated
  Modeling could be an appropriate tool and discuss
  ways to evaluate Mediated Modeling as a tool to
  support Decision-Making
• To describe the phases of a Mediated Modeling
  process in generic terms and discuss the various
  options available to overcome obstacles during a
  Mediated Modeling process
• To practice a real or hypothetical Mediated
  Modeling process on a class-wide or personal
  topic.
• Systems thinking, qualitative and quantitative
  model building in a stakeholder setting to
  support decision-making

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Deliverables

• Reflections - 1 hour
• Causal diagrams, STELLA model, poster - 2 hours
• Review of paper and facilitation - 2 hours
• Class project - 4 hours
• It is expected that about 9 hours per week are
  allocated to this course, not counting the 3
  hours of class.

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Reflections

• 1. Describe the experience objectively (CONCEPTS)
• 2. Analyze the experience(s) in terms of academic
  enhancement, personal growth and civic engagement
  (EXPERIENCE)
• 3. Articulate what you learned (SYNTHESIS)
• The topic of the reflection for 1/20/07 is What
  are your personal learning objectives?

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Grading

• Weekly reflections 10
• Weekly causal loop diagram, STELLA model and
  poster 30
• One chapter/paper review 10
• Overall participation 20
• Contribution to class project or separate paper
  30
• Final exam?
• Grading rubrics?

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Learning objective 1

• To recognize situations in which Mediated
  Modeling could be an appropriate tool and discuss
  ways to evaluate Mediated Modeling as a tool to
  support Decision-Making

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Some problems are so complex that you have to be
highly intelligent and well informed just to be
undecided about them.

• Laurence J. Peter

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Characteristics of a Mediated Model
Constructed by stakeholders (about 10 - 30)
Modeling for understanding rather than prediction
Uses software that is easy to understand (f.ex.
STELLA)
Models are flexible and easily adjustable over
time
Synthesis
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All models are wrong,some models are useful.

• Deming

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Modeling as a group process

• Raising the SHARED level of UNDERSTANDING about a
  complex system and its dynamics
• CONSENSUS BUILDING about the current worldview, a
  preferred future and the way to reach it

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Degree of Consensus among Stakeholders
-
-
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The antidote to fragmentation is shared
understanding and shared commitment.

• Collective intelligence, collective skill
  synchronizing energy for empowered action.

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Result System x Acceptance
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Wickedness requires a systematic inquiry, a
commitment to asking why
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Listening cycle
Listen
Guess
Validate
Write/draw
Source Conklin, 2006
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Requirements for a Mediated Modeling process

• Complex issue
• Stakeholders open to communication

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Role of the mediated modeler

• Provide the space for group learning to take
  place
• Facilitate the discussion through listening
  cycles
• Simultaneous interpret discussion and build model
• Remind of vision and questions to be addressed
• Synchronize understanding of the past (structure,
  definitions, order of magnitude)
• Maintain creative tension
• Establish the milestones for the process, be
  flexible about how to reach them

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Specific characteristics of Mediated Modeling
that contribute to making it work

• Participants focus on a shared space
• Gets people to think out of the box in a new
  language focused on the whole system
• Keep participants involved and contributing to a
  group effort
• Structures the discussion and the thinking in new
  ways
• Forces the group to become specific and explicit
  and to define and quantify assumptions and views
  each step of the way.

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Generic workshop process(30-50 hours)
Introduction Group, software, ground rules,
envisioning, problem definition and systems
boundaries
Qualitative model Sector definition, stocks and
flows, feed back loops
Quantitative model Quantification, data
gathering, time lags
Simulation Testing, sensitivity analysis
Consensus based conclusions action program
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Applications

• Policy-making policy support
• Joint fact finding
• Integrating a large research program
• Summarizing a fragmented program
• Initiating (scoping) a group model building
  process
• Complementary tool
• Community outreach program
• Atelier courses
• Conflict resolution

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Learning objective 2

• To describe the phases of a Mediated Modeling
  process in generic terms and discuss the various
  options available to overcome obstacles during a
  Mediated Modeling process

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MM steps

• Preparation - identifying stakeholders, setting
  the stakeholder group/stakeholder management,
  introductory interviews, prepare preliminary
  model
• Workshops - introduction, problem definition,
  qualitative model building, quantitative model
  building, data management, simulation, testing,
  conclusions
• Follow up - tutorial, written material, model,
  evaluation interview/surveys

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Paper/Chapter review

• Review a paper of choice on 1/23
• Teamwork in group model building, by Richardson
  and Andersen
• MM textbook, Chapter 4, page 59-97

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Learning objective 3

• To practice a real or hypothetical Mediated
  Modeling process on a class-wide or personal
  topic.

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Ponds and Lakes in VT

• ANR will invite minimum 5 stakeholders VT
  Federation for Lakes and Ponds, Hunters, Anglers,
  Trappers of VT, Realtor, legislators, Water
  Panel.
• A context for data gathering effort on
  shorelines.
• Sensitive issue 1970s shoreline act instituted
  and quickly repealed

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Open Space

• Organize the MM teamwork Process coaching,
  recording, model building, data management.
• Law of Two Feet if you are not contributing to a
  team it is your responsibility to find (or start)
  a productive team.

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Learning objective 4

• Systems thinking, qualitative and quantitative
  model building in a stakeholder setting to
  support decision-making

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Linear thinking
A
B
C
Example?
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What is a system?

• A group of interacting, interrelated, or
  independent components that form a complex and
  unified whole.

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System Characteristics

• A systems parts must all be present for the
  system to carry out its purpose optimally.
• A systems parts must be arranged in a specific
  way for the system to carry out its purpose
• Systems have specific purposes within larger
  systems
• Systems maintain their stability through
  fluctuations and adjustments
• Systems have feedback.

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Levels of Understanding
Action Time Orientation Way of Perceiving
EVENTS React Present Witness
PATTERNS Adapt Measure or track events
STRUCTURE Create Change Future Causal loops diagrams SD tools
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Questions you would ask
EVENTS What is the fastest way to react to this event now?
PATTERNS What kinds of trends or patterns of events seem to be recurring?
STRUCTURE What structures are in place that are causing these patterns?
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Systems Thinking
A
B
C
Example?
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Assignments

• Personal objectives in reflections
• Causal loop diagram on topic of choice
• Download STELLA
• Read MM book chapter 4, page 59-97
• Read Teamwork in group model building
• Project preparation