Surveying the Digital Future: The Impact of the Internet

1
Surveying the Digital FutureThe Impact of
the Internet

• Year Five
• Trends in Internet Use
• Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D.
• Director, The Center for the Digital Future
• at USC Annenberg
• Cross-Platform Media Teams Strategic Thinking
  for a Multi-Platform World
• June 22, 2005
• Reston, VA

2
Lost Research Opportunity

• A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in
  1948 could have found
• Where the time for television came from
• How it affected
• consumer behavior, connection to the civic
  process, desire to travel, career goals and much
  else

3
We are undertaking the study of the
Internet that should have been conducted on
television in the late 1940s
4
Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons

• United States
• Singapore
• Italy
• Sweden
• Japan
• Taiwan
• Great Britain
• India
• Iran
• Australia
• Bolivia
• Hong Kong

• Mainland China
• Macao
• South Korea
• Germany
• Hungary
• Spain
• Chile
• Argentina
• Brazil
• Philipines
• Portugual
• Africa about to join

5
Trend 1

• Broadband Changes Everything

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Broadband Changes Everything

• Bigger gap between dial-up and broadband than
  between non-user and dial-up
• Dial-up is disruptive broadband integrative
• Broadband determines how often people log on, how
  long they stay on, what they do online and where
  they log on from
• Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and
  overall relationship to Internet

7
Broadband vs. Dial-up

• Broadband users on 17.3 hours a week vs. 10.6 for
  dialup
• Dial-up users on 2-4 times a day, broadband
  16-30
• Broadband users do more of everything except
  using medical information and distance
  learning

8
Trend 2

• Media use (especially television) has shown
  profound change

9
Offline Media Use Continues to Change

• Television displacement changing
• Newspaper and magazine use drops for second year
• Book use declining slightly for first time
• Radio and home film watching remains stable
• Age makes enormous difference

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Average Hours per Week Spent Watching
TelevisionUsers vs. Non-Users
Users
Non-users
30
26.3
24.3
25
22.9
20.9
20.4
20.2
20
18.7
18.3
18.1
17.5
23.0
16.2
15.9
15.6
15.5
14.5
Number of Hours
14.1
15
13.0
12.9
11.8
15.5
10.2
10
5
0
Britain
Chile (Santiago)
Germany
Hungary
Japan
Korea
Macao
Singapore
Sweden
Taiwan
USA
HTV x Usenet 7 extra questions (10-22-03)
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During a typical week, about how many hours of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities OFFLINE? (Use)
Q690 (K-4)
12
During a typical week, about how many hours of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities OFFLINE? (Age)
Q690 (K-5)
13
Online Media making a Real Impact

• Online newspaper readership rising
• Magazine and radio use climbing
• Online books, telephone and television use still
  very low
• Online game use very high, but drops slightly in
  4th year
• For young, some online media use VERY high

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During a typical week, about how many minutes of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities online?(Year to Year)
Q700 (K-2)
15
During a typical week, about how many minutes of
your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the
following activities online?(Age)
Q700 (K-4)
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Trend 3

• Internet is the most important source of
  information (for Internet users)

17
Internet 1 Information Source

• First place people go to for information
• Broadband greatly accelerates this process
• Want access to Internet everywhere
• Growth is in information, not entertainment

18
How important is the Internet as a source of
information? (Connection)
Q530a (P-1)
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Trend 4

• Reliability and credibility of media varies
  greatly based on source and in different countries

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Reliability and Credibility of Media

• Continuing to dropa healthy trend
• Credibility high in much of the world
• Trust in information varies widely depending on
  familiarity with the source

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How much of the information on the World Wide Web
overall do you think is reliable and accurate?
(Year to Year) (Users)
Q160 (M-1)
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Information on the Internet Is it Reliable and
Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above)
Stage 5 RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)
23
How much of the information on the World Wide Web
sites that you visit regularly do you think is
reliable and accurate?
Q170 (M-2)
24
How reliable and accurate are News Pages posted
by Established Media
Q173-1 (M-1)
25
How reliable and accurate areGovernment Websites
Q173-3 (M-1)
26
How reliable and accurate are Information Pages
posted by Individuals
Q173-2 (M-1)
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The Internet 2005-2010

• The advantages of experience will disappear
• Much Internet time will move to down time and
  number of hours on-line will shrink and mean less
  and less
• Internet users will reach television levels, but
  in 2030 not 2010 (most of those who want to be
  on-line are)

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The Internet 2005-2010 (continued)

• Push back from most advanced users (E-nuff
  already)
• Surprising amount Internet use will move to
  mobile

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CONTACT INFORMATION

• Web http/digitalcenter.org
• E-mail cole_at_digitalcenter.org
• Phone [phone]