??S?GOG?

1
??S?GOG?

• ?ef??a?? 1?

2
?? p??ß??µa µe sta?e?? ???a
..? ??eta??a ??e??st??e p??? ap? t??? µ?s???
f?s????? p????? t?? p?a??t? ??a ?a ft?se? st?
s?µe???? ep?ped? e??µe??a, p?s??? p?a??te? ?a
??e?aste? µ?a ???a sa? t?? ??d?a

• Mahatma Gandhi
• ?ta? ??t????e e?? µet? t?? a?e?a?t?s?a t?? ?
  ??d?a ?a ft?se? t? ep?ped? e??µe??a? t?? ?????a?

3
?? p??ß??µa µe sta?e?? ???a

• St?? ?.?.?. ??e???ovta? 12.2 e?t???a ??a t?v
  ?????? t?v ßas???v ava???v to? µ?so? ?ato??o?,
  st?v ???avd?a 8 ?a? st?v Ivd?a 1. ?o o??o?o????
  apot?p?µa t?? ???avd?a? ?a??pte? 15 fo??? t?v
  ??tas? t?? ???a? ev? to avt?sto??o t?? Ivd?a?
  ?epe?v? ?at? 35 µ?vov t?v ??tas? t?? ???a?. Ta
  ??e?a??tav t?e?? p?av?te? ?p?? ? G? ??a va
  ?a??f?o?v o? av???e? to? t???vo? p????sµo? t??
  G?? se ?o?e?oaµe????v??a ep?peda.
• Donella Meadows, Our Footprints Are
• Treading Too Much Earth_at_
• Charleston (S.C.) Gazzette,
• April 1,1996

4
?? p??ß??µa µe sta?e?? ???a

• ? ??????µ??? d?ast????t?ta(pa?a?????? ?a?
  ?ata????s?)d?µ?????e? a?ap?fe??tape??ßa????t???
  p??ß??µata, t? µ??e??? t?? ?p???? a????e? µe t??
  µe?????s? t?? ??????µ????d?ast????t?ta?

5
?? p??ß??µa

• St?? ?e???? t?? µ??f? t? pe??ßa????t??? p??ß??µa
  µp??e? ?a ?????e? ?? p??ß??µa t?? pepe?asµ????
  ????s?st?µat??

?
6
?? p??ß??µa

• ?at? t?? pa?a???? te????? p?????t??, ??a ??a??
  µ???? t?? e????e?a? ?a? ????p?? ???s?µ?p??e?ta?
  e??a? ad??at?? ?a a?a??????e? p?????
• ?p?s?? ?at? t?? pa?a?????? d?ad??as?a ?p???e?
  s?µa?t??? spat??? e????e?a? ?a? ????

7
?a s?µa?t???te?a p??ß??µata

• ?a s?µa?t???te?a ??at? p??ß??µata
• ?pe?ßo???? ???s? t?? s?vo????? ß?oµ??a? ap? tov
  ?v???po
• a??a?? t?v ?a?????v s?v????v
• ?atast?of? to? st??µato? to? ??ovto?
• ?poß??µ?s? t?? po??t?ta? t?v edaf?v
  
• e?af?v?s? µo?f?v ????

8
???s?µ? a??pt???

• ..???s?µ? a??pt??? e??a? ? a??pt??? p?? ?a??pte?
  t?? s?µe????? a????e? ????? ?a µe???e? t??
  ??a??t?ta t?? ep?µe??? ?e???? ?a ?a?????? t??
  d???? t??? a????e? .. (Brundtland Report,
  1987, p.43)

9
Te???t??? ?p?de??µata

• St? µ???µa a?t? ?a e?et?s??µe t? s??s? µeta??
  ??????µ???? d?ast????t?ta? ?a? pe??ß?????t?? µe
  t? ???s? ?p?de??µ?t??
• ?fa??et???? pe????af?? t?? p?a?µat???t?ta? p??
  µa? d????? t?? d??at?t?ta ?a e?et?s??µe
  s???e???µ??a p??ß??µata se ß????

10
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? apa?s??d??? se?????

• St? apa?s??d??? ???? ????µe t? µe??t? ?a ???a
  t?? ??????µ???? ?e?????s??
• ???s? t?? te?????? t?? d??aµ???? s?st?µ?t??
• ???s? ??e?st?? ?????µ?t?? a?at??f?d?t?s??
  (feedback loops)
• ??e?st? s?st?µata p?? pe?????f??? t?? ep?pt?se??
  µ?a? e????e?a? st?? pe??ß?????se? s?????e? p??
  ?d????? se ??e? e????e?e?, ??p, ??p
• St?? pa?a??t? d?e????s? µp??e?te ?a ß?e?te
  pa?ade??µata feedback loops p?? af????? t?
  fa???µe?? t?? ???µat???? a??a???
  http//www.ecobridge.org/content/g_fbk.htm

11
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? apa?s??d??? se?????
?a?ade??µata feedback loops p?? af????? t?
fa???µe?? t?? ???µat???? a??a???

• ???? "Terrestrial Ecosystem Feedbacks to Global
  Climate Change" by D. A. Lashof, B. J. DeAngelo,
  J. Harte and S. R. Saleska, Annual Review of
  Energy and the Environment, 1997 edition, volume
  22.

12
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? apa?s??d??? se?????

• ?a s?µpe??sµata
• ?e ded?µ??e? t?? s?????e?, se ????te?? ap? 100
  ?????a ?? f?s???? p???? e?a?t????ta? ?a? t?
  s?st?µa ?ata???e? (de? se?. 13)
• ?a? a? de? e?a?t?????? ?? p???? ? ?at???e?s? ?a
  p?????e? e?te ap? ?pe?ß????? µ????s? e?te ap?
  ?pe?p????sµ?
• ? µe?????s? de? µp??e? ?a s??e??ste?. ??te ?a
  pe?????ste? e?e???s?a, e?te ?a ?d??????µe se
  ?at???e?s? t?? s?st?µat??

13
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? apa?s??d??? se?????
BEYOND THE LIMITS, Meadows, et al.Chelsea Green
Publishing Company, 1992. ISBN 0-930031-62-8.
14
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? apa?s??d??? se?????

• ?as???? ?p???se??
• ???et???? a???se?? t?? µetaß??t??
• Sta?e?? ???a t?? f?s???? p????
• ???s? ??e?st?? ?????µ?t?? a?at??f?d?t?s??

15
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? a?s??d??? se?????

• St?? a?t?p?da ß??s?eta? ? d???e?? t?? Herman Kahn
  ?a ep?µe?a 200 ?????a ??a se????? ??a t??
  ?µe???? ?a? t?? ??sµ?
• ? a?s??d???a t?? e??as?a? a?t?? ßas??eta? st??
  te????????? p???d? ? ?p??a µp??e? ?a d?e????e? ta
  f?s??? ???a,µ???? t?? s?µe??? ?a µ?? ?p??????

16
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? a?s??d??? se?????

• ?a s?µpe??sµata
• ? p????sµ?? ?a s??e??se? ?a a????eta? sta ep?µe?a
  200 ?????a µe µe???µe?? ???µ? a???s??, a???
  a??a??µe?? ?at? ?efa??? e?s?d?µa
• ? s?????s? t?? ??????µ???? µe?????s?? ?a ?fe??se?
  p??? t??? ft???te???? ?a??? µ?sa ap? t?? a??pt???
  ???? te?????????

17
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? a?s??d??? se?????

• ?as???? ?p???se??
• ? e??as?a t?? Kahn de? ßas??eta? se p?s?t???,
  µa??µat??? ?p?de??µata, a??? se p???t??? a????s?
  d?af???? ?de?? ?a? se?a???? µe ?µfas? st??
  ep?d?as? ???? te?????????
• Ge????, ? e??as?a t?? Kahn p?esße?e? ?t? ta
  sta?e?? ???a p?? a?t?µet?p????µe s?µe?a ?a
  ?epe?ast??? µe ??e? te???????e? ?a? ep?µ????,
  pa?? t?? e??et???? a???se?? t? s?st?µa de? ?a
  ?ata??e?se? ?p?? p??ß??pe? t? apa?s??d??? se?????

18
Ge???? ?p?de??µata ?? a?s??d??? se?????

• ??a ???? p??? ???st? e??as?a µe a?s??d??a
  s?µpe??sµata e??a? a?t? t?? Julian Simon, The
  Ultimate Resource 1981 ?a? se 2? ??d?s? t? 1996
• ?? s????? t?? e??as?a? st?? 2? ??d?s? t?? µp??e?
  ?a ß?e?e? st?? d?e????s? http//www.juliansimon.c
  om/writings/Ultimate_Resource/
• ? a????p??? fa?tas?a ?a? ep????t???t?ta ?a
  ?d???se? st? ?a ?epe??s??µe ta ???a

19
S?µpe?asµat??? e??t?µata

• ???? ap? ta d?? t?s? a??a?a se????a e??a? p??
  ???t? st?? p?a?µat???t?ta
• ?p?????? sta?e?? ???a
• ???a e??a?, a? ?p??????
• ??? a???ß?? ?e?t??????? ta ??e?st? ?????µata
  a?at??f?d?t?s??
• ????? ? ????? t?? ??????µ???? ?a? p???t????
  ?esµ??
• ????? ? ßa?µ?? aßeßa??t?ta? ?a? p??
  a?t?µet?p??eta?
• ?p????µe ?a ep?t????µe pa???sµ?a s??e??as?a ??a
  t?? ß??s?µ? a??pt???

20
S?????

• St? p??t? µ???? t?? µa??µat??, s?????saµe ta
  s?µa?t???te?a p??ß??µata p?? af????? st?? ß??s?µ?
  a??pt???
• ?at?p?? e?et?saµe ta d?? a??a?a ?p?de??µata ta
  ?p??a ?ata?????? e?te se apa?s??d??e? e?te
  a?s??d??e? p??ß???e?? ??a t? µ?????
• ?? a?s??d??? se????? ?a ßas??eta? st?? a????p???
  ep????t???t?ta ? ?p??a µ?sa ap? ??e? te???????e?
  ?a ?pe?ße? ta s?µe???? ???a

21
S?????

• ?e ad?aµf?sß?t?t? ded?µ??? t?? s??e????µe??
  ep?de???s? d?af???? pe??ßa????t???? p??ß??µ?t??,
  ?p?? ??a pa??de??µa t?? a???s? t?? µ?s??
  ?e?µ???as?a? de? µp????µe ?a epa?apa??µaste se
  ?e????? a?af???? st?? a????p??? ep????t???t?ta,
  a??? ?a p??pe? ?a pa????? µ?t?a t?s? ??a t??
  ?????? ???s? t?? ?pa????t?? p???? ?s? ?a? ??a t??
  te????????? e??????, sta p?a?s?a t?? ?pa????t??
  p???t???? ?a? ??????µ???? ?esµ?? e?te, ?ta? a?t??
  de? epa????? ?a ep?d????e? ? d?e????s? ?a?
  µete?????? t???
• ?e? t?? t??t? ?a? te?e?ta?a ???es? t??
  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  http//www.ipcc.ch/

22
??S?GOG?

• ????? 1?? ?efa?a???