On the sustainability of global development

1
On the sustainability of global development

• Alessandro Vercelli
• Department of Economic Policy, Finance and
  Development
• University of Siena
• vercelli_at_unisi.it

2
Basic References

• -Borghesi, S. and A. Vercelli, 2008, Sustainable
  Globalization. Social and Environmental
  conditions, Palgrave Macmillan
• (Alessandro Vercelli e Simone Borghesi, 2005, La
  sostenibilità dello sviluppo globale, Carocci
  editore, Roma.)
• -Stiglitz, J.E., 2006, Making Globalization work,
  Norton, New York
• (Stiglitz, J.E., 2006, La globalizzazione che
  funziona, Einaudi, Torino)

3
FIRST PART

• BASIC CONCEPTS
• AND THE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

4
Approach

• On globalisation we cannot say anything in
  general
• ? different phases characterised by different
  features and effects
• ? any appraisal is relative to a particular point
  of view. My own

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
PHASES OF GLOBALISATION

• I want to clarify whether
• the recent phase of globalisation is consistent
  with the requirement of sustainable development
• the current phase of globalisation is
  sustainable or requires substantial modifications
• ? policy implications

5
Definition of economic globalisation

• Process of progressive integration of world
  markets based on the free movement across borders
  of goods, services, and production factors

THREE PERIODS 1820-1915 FIRST
GLOBALISATION 1915-1945 DE-GLOBALISATION
1945-2007? SECOND GLOBALISATION
6
The three phases of economic globalisation the
world exports
Source Maddison (2001) updated using WTO (2001)
7
The three phases of globalisation the stock of
Foreign Direct Investment
Source Obstfeld and Taylor (2004)
8
Sustainable development definitions

• Development
• process of expansion of individual
  economic freedom (Sen, 1999)
• Sustainable development
• Development is sustainable if it satisfies
  present-day needs without compromising the
  capacity of future generations to satisfy their
  needs (Brundtland Report, 1987)

9
Sustainable development

• Foundations

DISTRIBUTIVE EQUITY
CHOICE FREEDOM

• Income
• Wealth
• Resources

2 CONDITIONS
INTER-GENERATIONAL
INTRA-GENERATIONAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERION
SOCIAL CRITERION
10
Ethical and economic foundations the social
condition

• equal access to the basic economic opportunities
  ethical foundations
• this is also a fundamental condition of economic
  efficiency
• -prerequisite for a well-functioning competitive
  market guarantees that the winners of the
  economic competition are actually the best
  participants as each of them plays on a level
  playing field
• -poverty (malnutrition) implies a restriction of
  the option set reducing the potential
  contribution of poor people to economic
  efficiency and wealth
• among poor people who cannot afford a good
  education there are potentially good scientists,
  engineers, physicians, managers and so on
• -social and political tensions that have negative
  effects on income growth
• (Alesina and Perotti, 1996 Benhabib and
  Rustichini, 1996)

11
Ethical and economic foundations the
environmental condition

• similarly environmental degradation has adverse
  economic effects
• ? health of people ? ? productivity
• ? land productivity
• poverty-environment trap the poor rely heavily
  on the direct exploitation of natural resources
• ? environmental degradation ?? poverty ??
  environmental degradation

12
The influence of globalisation on the conditions
of sustainability

• The main influence is through the impact of
  globalisation on income
• ? positive correlation for sound theoretical
  reasons
• ? extension of markets ? ? division of labour ? ?
  productivity
• ? scale and scope economies ?? efficiency
• ? across borders and domestic competition
• ? diffusion of information and technology across
  borders
• Globalisation offers opportunities of development
  provided that the country adopting an outward
  trade orientation complies with conditions rule
  of law, institutions to monitor, control and
  regulate markets
• Notwithstanding this proviso, the empirical
  evidence generally finds a positive correlation
  e.g. Bhagwati (2004), Wolf (2004)

13
Orientation of trade and growth rate of GDP
1963-1992
Average rates of growth of per capita GDP In developing countries Average rates of growth of per capita GDP In developing countries Average rates of growth of per capita GDP In developing countries
Orientation of trade 1963-1973 1973-1985 1980-1992
Open to trade 6.9 5.9 6.4
Moderately open 4.9 1.6 2.3
Moderately protectionist 4 1.7 -0.2
Protectionist 1.6 -0.1 -0.4
Fig. 2
Source World Bank
14
Evolution of per capita GDP
Per capita GDP United States
Per capita GDP United Kingdom
Per capita GDP (thousands of )
Per capita GDP (thousands of )
Fig. 3
Source Lomborg (2001)
15
Impact of globalisation on the social conditions
of sustainability

• 1a) BETWEEN
• 1) INEQUALITY COUNTRIES
• 1b) WITHIN

16
Inequality indexes of individual incomes 1820-1992
Theil inequality coefficients
global inequality ()
Inequality between countries
Inequality within countries
() Global inequality is the sum of the other two
curves
Fig. 1
Source Bourguignon and Morisson (2002)
17
Correlation between globalisation and inequality?

• The global index suggests a positive answer
• however, as soon as we decompose it in its two
  determinants, and consider different phases, the
  outlook becomes more complex and articulated
• Between-country inequality
• Correlation in the 19th century
• In the 20th century the positive correlation
  breaks down
• globalisation has two opposite effects on the
  inequality
• between globalising and non-globalising
  countries ?? inequality
• and within globalising countries ? ?inequality
• ? the weight of the second effect progressively
  increased during the second globalisation as a
  consequence of the spreading of globalisation
• negative correlation? Question not yet settled
  (Branko Milanovic, 2002)

18
Correlation between globalisation and inequality?

• Within-country inequality mild positive
  correlation
• the aggregate index conceals the empirical
  pattern of groups of countries
• new globalising countries India, China, Russia
  ? inequality
• most OECD countries ? U pattern since 1915
• 1915-1971 ? inequality (solidarity from wars,
  depression, welfare state)
• 1975-2005 ? inequality (neoliberal policies)
• ? I will focus on the second empirical trend that
  has important policy implications

19
Variation in within-country income inequality
1975-1985 1985-1995
1975-1985 1985-1995
AUSTRIA 0
BELGIUM
CANADA 0
CHECK REP. --
DANMARCK
FINLAND -
FRANCE -
GERMANY -
UNGHERIA
ITALY --
JAPAN 0
COREA
HOLLAND 0
NEW ZELAND
NORWAY -
POLAND 0
SWEDEN -
HIGH INCREASE gt 15
INCREASE 7-15
MODERATE INCREASE 2-7
0 NO VARIATION -2 - 2
- MODERATE REDUCTION 2-7
-- REDUCTION 7-15
--- STRONG REDUCTION gt 15
Fig. 4
Source OECD
20
Inequality in the U.K., 1939-1996 ()
56
52
48
44
40
36
Gini index
32
28
24
20
16
1975
1985
1945
1955
1965
1995
1935
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Fig. 5
Source Brandolini (2002)
21
Inequality in the USA, 1929-1996
56
52
48
44
40
Gini index
36
32
28
24
20
16
1975
1985
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1995
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1920
2000
Fig. 6
Source Brandolini (2002)
22
Share of income (quintiles 1985-1995)
MIN. INCOMES AVER. INCOMES MAX. INCOMES
AUSTRALIA
AUSTRIA
BELGIUM ---
CANADA
DENMARK -
FINLAND ---
FRANCE -
GERMANY -
HUNGARY
ITALY --- -
JAPAN -
MEXICO ---
HOLLAND -
NORWAY - -
SWEDEN -
TURKEY - ---
U. K. - -
U.S.A. -
INCREASE gt 1.5
INCREASE between 0.5 E 1.5
VARIATION between -0.5 and 0.5
- DECREASE between 0.5 E 1.5
--- DECREASE gt 1.5
Fig. 7
Source OECD
23
The impact of globalisation on the social
condition of sustainability

• The indirect effect on inequality
• the environmental Kuznets Curve

24
Indirect correlation between globalisation and
within-country inequality

• Extensive empirical literature on within-country
  inequality studying its correlation with per
  capita income
• Since there is a strong correlation between
  globalisation and per capita income
• we can interpret the above as an indirect
  correlation between within-country inequality and
  globalisation
• Literature initiated by the Nobel-laureate Simon
  Kuznets who suggested in 1955 the conjecture that
  within-country inequality increases in the first
  phase of industrial development but decreases in
  a second phase

25
KUZNETS CURVE (1955)
Inequality
Social carrying capacity
Per capita income
Fig. 9
26
KUZNETS CURVE (1955)

• Plausibility ? take-off (triggered by the
  adoption of outward-oriented policies)
• -diffusion takes time
• -urbanisation
• -growing pressure in favour of redistribution
• (progressive taxation, transfers, welfare
  state)
• Optimist message the problem tends to disappear
  spontaneously
• Kuznets conjecture corroborated by econometric
  studies up to the 1970s
• since the early 1980s new econometric studies
  have progressively weakened the empirical support
  (emergence of the U-pattern in OECD countries)
• historical explanation the KC described a
  specific historical process and not general
  tendencies intrinsic in the process of
  globalisation? policy is needed

27
The impact of globalisation on the social
condition of sustainability

• The effects on poverty

28
Impact of globalisation on the social conditions
of sustainability 2) poverty

• we have to reject the optimist message of the
  Kuznets curve
• however, according to many economists, in order
  to study the social effects of globalisation we
  should focus not on inequality but on poverty
• Conviction based on the Bhagwati hypothesis
  and prescription
• Countries have similar distribution of income ?
  we can only reduce poverty by increasing the rate
  of growth of income (Bhagwati, 2004, p.66)

29
Impact of globalisation on the social conditions
of sustainability 2) poverty

• misleading hypothesis Bourguignon and Morisson
  (p.733) calculated that
• had the world distribution of income remained
  unchanged since 1820, the number of poor people
  would be less than 1/4th than it is today and the
  number of extremely poor people would be less
  than 1/8th of what is today
• ? we should try hard to realize a more
  egalitarian growth

30
The long-run trend of poverty(lt 2 a day)
Source Bourguignon and Morisson (2002)
31
The long-run trend of extreme poverty (lt 1
a day)
Source Bourguignon and Morisson (2002)
32
Poverty in the world from 1987 to 1998
Extreme poverty (headcount)
100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75 -100 -125 -15
0
Variations
East Asia and Pacific Area
Europe and central Asia
Latin America and Caraibi
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-saharian Africa
Fig. 10
Source World Bank
33
Variation rates of poverty (1985-1995)
Pre-tax transferts
Post-tax transfers
Poverty is defined as the number of persons who
detain less than 50 of average income of total
popolation. Taxes include all direct taxes on
incomes, included social security contributions.
The transfers include all the benefits deriving
from money transfers.
Fig. 8
Source OECD
34
The impact of globalisation on the environmental
condition of sustainability

• The indirect effect
• the environmental Kuznets Curve

35
Environmental KUZNETS curve (Panayotou, 1993)

• No historical series of comprehensive indexes of
  environmental deterioration
• ? correlation with specific indexes of
  environmental deterioration
• Some of them behave as in the KC ? environmental
  Kuznets curve
• Plausibility
• -take-off shift of labour from agriculture to
  heavy industry
• then increase of light industry and services
• -growing pressure of final users and electorate
• Econometric studies seemed to corroborate the
  hypothesis but then it was falsified in many
  cases
• - it works only when the environmental effects
  are local
• - recently N-shaped curves

36
Environmental KUZNETS curve
Environmental deterioration
Environmental carrying capacity
Per capita income
Fig. 11
37
Environmental KUZNETS curve (sulfur dioxide)
1972
Sulfur Dioxide ?g/m3
1986
Per capita income (PPP)
DEVELOPMENT
Fig. 12
Source Shafik (1994)
38
Environmental KUZNETS curve (particulate matter)
1972
1986
Per capita income (PPP)
DEVELOPMENT
Fig. 13
Source Shafik (1994)
39
Environmental KUZNETS curve (coliform bacteria)
Thousands coliforms per 100ml
1986
1979
Per capita income (PPP)
DEVELOPMENT
Fig. 14
Source Shafik (1994)
40
Generalisation of the environmental Kuznets curve

• Environmental sustainability relation
• ED growth pc income growth intensity of ED
  growth population growth
• where ED is a global index of environmental
  degradation pc is per capita
• Condition of long-term global environmental
  sustainability (ED growth 0 )
• pc income growth - (intensity of ED growth
  population growth)
• ? positive growth of pc income may be sustainable
  only if
• negative growth of ED intensity gt population
  growth

41
Crucial requisite of sustainabilty
Development is sustainable only if
Reduction rate of ED intensity
Rate of growth of population
gt
More likely in developed countries
Calls for

• Technologic change
• Consumption

Increasingly eco-compatible
42
The environmental sustainability relation and the
energy problem

• The condition for longterm energy sustainability
  is given by
• pc income growth - (population growthenergy
  intensity growthCO2 energy intensity
  growth)
• or
• income growth (energy intensity growth ED
  growth)
• We may define max sustainable growth of income
• Max sustainable income growth (energy
  intensity growth ED energy intensity
  growth)
• Sustainability Gap actual income growth max
  sustainable income growth

43
The sustainability gap in the current model of
energy production and consumption
Average observed values for each decade
(projection 2001-2005) Source Energy Information
Administration
44
SECOND PART

• An Attempt at Causal Interpretation

45
Prevailing empirical correlations
SUSTAINABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT
-
-
ENVIRONMENTAL DETERIORATION
INEQUALITY AND POVERTY

/- (Kuznets) /-


PER CAPITA INCOME

GLOBALISATION
46
Tentative answer to the first question
Postwar globalisation two phases
WITHIN-COUNTRY INEQUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL DETERIORATION
1945-1971 MODERATE IMPROVEMENT WORSENING
1980-2002 WORSENING PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT
NEITHER OF THE PHASES OF POSTWAR
GLOBALISATION MAY BE CONSIDERED AS FULLY
SUSTAINABLE ALTHOUGH FOR DIFFERENT REASONS
47
Towards a causal analysis
STATISTICAL CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY
CAUSALITY
CAUSAL ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC RATIONALE OF GLOBALISATION
THE INTEGRATION OF LOCAL MARKETS IN A UNIFIED
GLOBAL COMPETITIVE MARKET IN ORDER TO REALISE THE
OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF WORLD RESOURCES AND TO
MAXIMISE THE WELFARE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY
48
Towards a causal analysis
The validity of the argument depends on a series
of conditions. In particular

• Goods and services
• Production factors
• Technology and information

Effective mobility across countries

• A) barriers against imports from developing
  countries (agriculture, textiles)
• B) Strong restrictions to the international
  mobility of labour
• C) Free movement of capital without distinction
  between FDI and speculative flows

Anomalies
49
ANOMALIES

• A) according to estimates of the UN (1994) these
  protectionist measures produce a transfer of
  wealth equal to the overall flow of foreign aid
• B) these restrictions are much more severe now
  than at the time of the first globalisation
• ? last resort equalizing instrument
• precondition of a competitive market (laissez
  faire, laissez passer, Smith)

50
ANOMALIES

• C) -FDI factor of development SF (speculative
  flows) source of instability dramatic change in
  their proportion
• Early 1980s FDI 90
• Now much less than 10 while daily SFs exceed the
  sum of reserves in foreign currency of G7
  countries
• Lucas paradox
• according to the standard neoclassical theory
  capital should flow from rich to the poor
  countries until the return to investment is
  equalized in all countries
• in reality the opposite happens (notwithstanding
  the higher marginal product of capital in
  emerging countries)
• role of perceived risk and institutions

51
Short-termism

• the recent process of globalisation strengthened
  short-termism
• a) Growing importance of finance
• b) Greater flexibility of labour markets and
  industrial relations
• c) Incentives to top managers and directors

52
Short-termism

• Growing importance of finance
• Goldsmith FIR from about 1 in the early 1980s
  (G5) to 2/3 2000s
• Liberalisation of capital flows almost complete
  without distinction between FDI and speculative
  flows ? change of proportion
• Stock exchange markets unified by Internet ??
  herd behaviour
• ? huge gains and losses from short-term
  speculative transactions

53
Short-termism

• managers frequent revisions
• b) deregulation labour markets
  workers short-term horizon
• short-term indexes (stock options)
• c) incentives to top managers
• ? short-term objective function
• Short-termism jeopardises sustainability
• ? liberalisation of capital
  account
• globalisation contributed to these trends
  
• ? deregulation

54
Regulation of international markets

• the effects of globalisation depend
  crucially on the regulation rules of
• the international markets
• Bretton Woods period (1945 - 1971)
• two phases
• Washington consensus (1980 - 2000)
• Different philosophies of market regulation

55
Regulation of international markets
The Bretton Woods System

• FIXED EXCHANGE RATES IN ORDER TO STABILIZE THE
  EXPECTATIONS
• LIBERALIZATION OF INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGES BASED
  ON THE GATT AGREEMENTS
• COUNTERCYCLICAL INTERVENTIONS OF IMF IN ORDER TO
  AVOID EFFECTIVE DOMAND DEFICIENCIES
• STRUCTURAL INTERVENTIONS
• OF THE WORLD BANK MAINLY TO FIGHT POVERTY

ACTIVE REGULATION OF INTERNATIONAL MARKETS IN
ORDER TO AVOID MARKET FAILURES
56
Regulation of international markets
The Washington consensus

1. FLEXIBLE CURRENCY EXCHANGES
2. INSTITUTION OF OMC TO COMPLETE THE LIBERALISATION
   OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE
3. NEW PRESCRIPTIONS OF IMF DEREGULATION,
   PRIVATISATION AND AUSTERITY
4. SUBORDINATION OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT OF THE WB TO
   THE COMPLIANCE TO IMF CONDITIONS

PRIVATISATION AND DEREGULATION OF INTERNATIONAL
MARKETS TO AVOID STATE FAILURES
57
Regulation of international markets
The Washington consensus

• A. THE WTO URGED THE REPEAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND
  SOCIAL CONSTRAINTS TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE
  INTERPRETED AS
• NON-TARIFF BARRIERS
• B. THE IMF URGED STRICT BUDGETARY POLICIES EVEN
  TO THE COST OF INTERRUPTING
• SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL INVESTMENT AND TRANSFERS

THE NEW POLICY PHILOSOPHY MAY JEOPARDISE
SUSTAINABILITY
58
Microeconomic aspects
SUSTAINABLE FIRM HAS UN A LONG-PERIOD TIME
HORIZON AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE INTERESTS OF
ALL STAKEHOLDERS MAX LIFE EXPECTATION AND
AVERAGE PROFITABILITY
DEVELOPMENT IS SUSTAINIBILE ONLY IF IT IS BASED
ON A FABRIC OF SUSTAINABLE FIRMS
59
Dow Jones indexes
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Dec-93 Sept-94 june-95 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep
t-97 June-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sept-00 June-
01 Mar-02
DJSI World SUSTAINABILITY INDEX
Index
DJ World GENERAL INDEX
Fig. 15
Sourcewww.sustainability-index.com
Total returns normalized to 100
60
The Influence of Globalisation

• The growing spatial fragmentation of productive
  activity made increasingly difficult the active
  control of stakeholders
• Progressive shortening of the time horizon of
  economic decisions
• The new regulation rules of International markets
  contributed to weaken the sustainability of
  development
• The case of banking shadow finance

61
Concluding remarks

• The Implications for Economic, Environmental and
  Social Policies

62
Tentative answer to the second question

• The confrontation pro or con globalisation is
  misleading
• The problems depend on
• Incompleteness of globalisation
• Anomalies of globalisation
• Inadequate regulation of markets

The recent process of globalisation is not fully
sustainable it can and should be made
sustainable with apt interventions of economic,
environmental and institutional policy
63
General policy interventions that descend from
the analysis

• Strengthen the sustainability of world
  development
• more egalitarian growth rapidly reducing poverty
• vigorous reduction in the intensity of
  environmental deterioration
• Defence and corroboration of genuine
  environmental and social constraints in
  cross-country trade
• Elimination of unjustified constraints to labour
  mobility
• Control of speculative flows and/or of their
  effects
• Incentives to CSR and enforcement of minimal
  standards
• Incentives to the financial system to channel
  saving towards sustainable investment

64
The basic policy dilemma

• Interventions such as those mentioned above may
  be implemented by
• national policy authorities
• but in the short period they could damage the
  national interests
• or powerful particular interests
• this problem extends to the global economy the
  dilemma
• should the markets be regulated by some sort of
  public authority?

65
Paradigm pro-regulation

• Dominant paradigm in the Bretton Woods period
• standard objection
• -omniscient
• state ? state failures
• -benevolent
• defence democratic control

STATE
government
regulation
interventions
reaction
market failures
economic power
Invisible hand
MARKET
66
Paradigm pro-deregulation

• Dominant paradigm in the Washington consensus
  era
• standard objection
• the real market is not the
• ? market failures
• perfect competitive market
• defence reduction of the gap

STATE
government
deregulation
privatisation

economic power
state failures
reaction
Invisible hand
MARKET
67
The gap between real markets and the ideal
model of a perfectly competitive market

• distribution
• a) perfect competition market limits
• incompleteness ? externalities
  
• ideal perfectly competitive market
• b) wide gap between
• real markets strong uncertainty, bounded
  rationality, transaction costs,
  irreversibility of time...
• c) the gap may be reduced but not fully
  eliminated (e.g. incompleteness)
• ? markets, even global markets, have to be
  regulated

68
Traditional paradigms

• Alternation at least since Adam Smith
• Both paradigms are simplistic, unilateral and
  misleading
• mistaken foundations of the sources of economic
  power and failures
• State hierarchical and centralised
  (government)
• trad. sources
• Market impersonal - decentralised
  (invisible hand)
• third source ? Firms hierarchical and
  centralised (governance)
• -different from the state control of
  stakeholders
• -different from the market Coase (1937)
• ? corporate failures (short-termism and CS
  Irresponsibility)

69
the three sources of economic power and failures
70
Concluding remarks on the policy dilemma

• Very often deregulation and privatisation
  translated not in more power to the market
• more power to firms (mainly to the big ones,
  often transnational)
• this did not mean more competition collusion,
  insider trading, conflicts of interests and other
  corporate failures undermine competition
• neither less power to the state
• -the share of public expenditure did not
  diminish what has changed is the structure of
  taxation and public expenditure in a less
  egalitarian way
• -collusion between particular corporate and
  political interests crony capitalism is by no
  means a distinctive trait of developing countries
  (Bhagwati, 2004)

71
The policy dilemma and globalisation

• What we need both at the national and
  international level is
• more effective competition on a really level
  playing field (?? inequality and poverty)
• more democratic control on government from
  citizens
• more democratic control on corporations from
  stakeholders
• the problem is not so much the dislocation of
  nominal power between the three sources, but the
  quality of the management of power at the
  national and global level
• -genuinely competitive markets
• government
• -accountability and transparency of
• corporate governance
• under these conditions globalisation may offer
  crucial opportunities of development guaranteeing
  at the same time its sustainability

72
Theoretical presuppositions1) assertions on the
market

• -distribution
• a) perfect-competition market intrinsic limits
  
• -externalities
• ideal of perfect competition (GEM)
• b) wide gap between market
• real incompleteness, strong uncertainty,
  limited rationality, externalities,
  transaction costs, irreversibility, etc.
• c) The gap may be narrowed but not fully closed
  (e.g. incompleteness)

73
2) liberalism vs. neoliberalism

• a) classic
• ß) updated (Keynes, Pigou, etc.)
• Liberalism ? discontinuity
• ?) neoliberalism
• a) e ß) endorse the three assertions
• ?) rejects or underscores them
• externalities ? property relations
• a) optimism
• distribution collateral effects of growth
  (temporary Kuznets)
• b) minimization (e.g. contestable markets)
• c) no limits in principle (e.g. Arrow securities
  to complete markets)

74
3) Policy implications

• a) public interventions inevitable
• Liberalism b) ? gap but further
  interventions necessary ? ? well-being
• c) abolition of unjustified constraints
• a) avoid public Interventions (state
  failures in principle worse)
• Neoliberalism b) reducible through
  deregulation and privatization
• c) completely superable completion of
  markets, etc.

75
4) Postwar globalizations

• i) liberal (Keynesian updated liberalism)
  1945/1971
• Globalization
• ii) neoliberalism 1980/2007
• i) ? welfare state
• Social condition
• ii) ? welfare state
• i) ? awareness
• Environmental condition
• ii) ? environmental policies rise and
  decline