Prof. Odjugo, P. A. Ovuyovwiroye

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Powering Our Future With Weather, Climate and
Water

• Prof. Odjugo, P. A. Ovuyovwiroye
• Department of Geography and Regional Planning
• University of Benin, P. M. B. 1154, Benin City,
  Edo State, Nigeria.
• E-mail paoodjugo_at_yahoo.com
• Phone [phone]
• Also an Adjunct Research Professor with the
  Centre for Population and Environmental
  Protection (CPED), Shopping Complex, Ugbowo,
  Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria.
• Paper presented at the 2012 World Meteorological
  Day, Lagos, 23rd March, 2012

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INTRODUCTION

• In the current twist of climate change events, it
  is becoming clearer that nature has drawn the
  battle line with man on the planet earth since
  the 1970s.
• The forms of challenge on every living thing on
  this planet will be two while some changes may
  be positive, many others will have negative
  impacts.
• The negative natural weapons of war are being
  shot on man and his environment, namely, the
  earth warms, continental and sea ice melts,
  rainfall intensity and amount increases in some
  areas, sea levels rise, drought are becoming more
  severe, among others.

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INTRODUCTION CONTD

• Such natural bullets will inflect injuries on our
  todays earth and our descendants will inherit a
  world full of injuries and ailments like
  inundated coasts, flood, disappearing Island (too
  much water), drought, desertified continental
  interiors (too little water), increased
  dangerous winds and storms (extreme weather) and
  altered biodiversity.
• Under this condition, our capacity for
  innovation, leadership and community
  responsibility will be tested.
• Only those communities or nations that are strong
  and well prepared will survive and the best
  surviving strategy is to start empowering our
  future today through sound knowledge of weather,
  climate and water, for a sustainable future for
  us and for generations to come, hence the theme
  of this 2012 World Meteorological Day Powering
  Our Future With Weather, Climate and Water.

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GLOBAL WEATHER EVENTS (1950-2010)

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Fig 1 Great natural catastrophes worldwide
1950-2010 Number of events
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• With the exception of three years (1952, 1958 and
  2009) all other years have one form of great
  natural disaster or the other.
• Of the four catastrophes, meteorological (34)
  topped the list followed by geophysical (32),
  hydrological (23) and climatological (11).
• Climate and water related 68, while geophysical
  (32)
• Geophysical, meteorological and hydrological are
  major occurrence since the 1950s while
  climatological became a major feature in 1971 and
  since then it has been re-occurring.

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Table 1 Decadal analysis of number of events of
great natural catastrophes worldwide between 1950
and 2010
Decade Geophysical Meteorological Hydrological Climatological Total
1950-1959 6.9 10.9 2.0 0.0 20.8
1960-1969 10.8 11.5 4.8 0.0 27.6
1970-1979 19.4 21 5.0 2.3 46.3
1980-1989 18 21.2 18.1 6.0 63.4
1990-1999 16.5 42.2 25.8 6.8 91.0
2000-2010 12.1 17.5 9.0 3.2 44.2
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Fig 4 Great natural catastrophes worldwide
1950-2010 Percentage distribution per financial
loss per event group
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• Between 1950-2010, great natural disasters
  destroyed property worth US2.1tri (N315tri)
  globally, i.e. average of US35m (N5.2bn)
  annually.
• Of this amount, 40 was lost to meteorological
  disasters while 29 (geophysical), 25
  (hydrological) and 6 (climatological).
• Two groups climate-water related disasters
  accounted for 71 of the total destruction cost
  while geophysical events were 29.
• Total number of deaths recorded within the study
  period was 2,360,000.
• Out of these deaths, geophysical disasters
  accounted for 56, while meteorological (33),
  hydrological (6) and climatological (5).
• The climate-water related disasters caused 44
  of the deaths while geophysical was 56.
• What is noteworthy is that, while the
  meteorological disasters destroyed more property
  , geophysical disasters claimed more lives.

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Fig 5 Great natural catastrophes worldwide
1950-2010 Percentage distribution per deaths per
event group
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Fig 6 Great natural catastrophes in differently
developed economies
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• Developed economies (like USA, China, Japan etc.)
  experienced more disasters and overall losses
  while countries with low and/or lower middle
  economies(India, Bangladesh) suffered more of
  the deaths .
• Developed economies have the money and
  technologies to monitor, predict the occurrence
  and evacuate those living within the disaster
  zone before some of they occurs.
• Moreover the developed economies of the world
  also have better management strategies to cope
  when disasters occur.
• Such disaster preparedness, management techniques
  and coping capabilities of the developed nations
  actually reduce fatality levels when natural
  catastrophes occur.
• The poor nations (like Nigeria, Haiti, India,
  Ethiopia), have no effective technologies to
  monitor disasters and when they eventually occur,
  they have no financial capability to cope with
  the impacts.

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Table 2 The 10 deadliest natural disasters
worldwide between 1980-2010
Period Event Affected Area Overall losses Insured losses Deaths
Period Event Affected Area US m US m Deaths
12/1/2010 Earthquake Haiti Port-au-Prince, Petionville, Jacmel, Carrefour, Leogane, Petit Goave, Gressier 8,000 200 222,570
26/12/2004 Earthquake/ Tsunami Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives Malaysia 10,000 1,000 220,000
2-5/5/2008 Cyclone Nargis, storm surge Myanmar Ayeyawaddy, Yangon, Bugalay, Rangun, Irrawaddy, Bago, Karen, Mon, Laputta, Haing Kyi 4,000 140,000
29-30/4/1991 Tropical cyclone, storm surge Bangladesh Gulf of Bengal, Coxs Bazar, Chittagong, Bola, Noakhali districts, kutubodia 3000 100 139,000
8/18/2005 Earthquake Pakistan, India, Afghanistan 5,200 5 88,000
12/5/2008 Earthquake China Sichuan, Mianyang, Beichuan, Wenchuan, Shifang, Chengdu, Guangyuan, Ngawa, Yaan 85,000 300 84,000
July-Aug 2003 Heat wave, drought France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Romania, Spain, United Kingdom 13,800 20 70,000
July Sept 2010 Heat wave Russian Federation Moscow region, Kolomna, Mokhovoye 400 56,000
20/6/1990 Earthquake Iran Caspian Sea, Gilan provinve, Manjil, Rudbar, Zanjan, Safid, Qazvin 7,100 100 40,000
8-19/12/199 Landslides, flash floods Venezuala Vargas, La Guaira Punta de Mulatos, Miranda, Nueva Esparta, Yaracuy. Colombia 3200 220 30,000
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• Between 1980-2010
• Climate water related killed 655,000 (60)
  people
• Geophysical killed 434,000 (40) People
• Climate water related destroyed property worth
  US 275m (53)
• Geophysical accounted for US 257m (47) property
  loss.

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Table 3 The 10 costliest natural disasters
worldwide ordered by overall losses between
1980-2010
Period Event Affected Area Overall losses Insured losses Deaths
Period Event Affected Area US m US m Deaths
25-30/8/2005 Hurricane Katrina, storm surge USA New Orleans, Slidell, Biloxi, Pascagoula, Waveland, Gulfport 125,000 62,200 1,322
17/1/1995 Earthquake Japan Hyogo, Kobe, Osaka, Kyoto 100,000 3,000 6,430
12/5/2008 Earthquake China Sichuan, Mianyang, Beichuan, Wenchuan, Shifang, Chengdu, Guangyuan, Ngawa, Yaan 85,000 300 84,000
17/1/1994 Earthquake USA Northridge, Los Angeles, San Fernando Valley, Ventura, Orange 44,000 15,300 61
6-14/9/2008 Hurricane Ike USA, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bahamas 38,300 18,500 170
May-Sept 1998 Floods China Jangtsekiang, Songhua Jiang 30,700 1,000 4,159
27/2/2010 Earthquake, tsunami Chile Bio Bio, Concepcion, Talcahuano, Coronel, Dichato, Chilan, Del Maule, Talca, Curico 30,000 8,000 520
23/10/2004 Earthquake Japan Honshu, Niigata, Ojiya, Tokyo, Nagaoka, Yamakoshi 28,000 760 46
23-27/8/1992 Hurricane Andrew USA Florida, Homestead, Bahamas 26,500 17,000 62
27/6-13/8/1996 Floods China Guizhou, Guiyang, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangxi, jiangsu 24,000 445 3,048
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Plate 2a Christ Episcopal Church, 912 South
Beach Blvd, Bay St. Louis MS, before the
Hurricane Katrina of 15th July, 2005.
Plate 2b Same area at Plate 2a after the
Hurricane.
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Water resources and water risks

• The reality on any part of the earth is that
  without water, nothing grows and with too much
  water, all may be lost.
• Water is fundamental to all forms of life, with a
  key role in public health, agriculture, municipal
  services, industry, hydropower, inland navigation
  and environmental protection.
• Globally, water scarcity remains a major problem,
  affecting one in three people. In many places,
  the situation is worsening, owing to rising
  populations and growing household and industrial
  demands.
• Water supplies are increasingly scarce in many
  areas including arid regions of South America and
  Africa and inland regions of Asia and Australia,
  leading to discussion as to whether water may one
  day become a valuable commodity that is traded
  like oil.

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• excessive water in the form of flash floods and
  river plain floods can cause immense economic
  damage and loss of life.
• In 2011, many countries experienced devastating
  floods Australia, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan,
  Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand the United States
  and Nigeria, to name a few.
• Adapting to increasing climate variability and
  change through better water management requires
  policy shifts and significant investments by
  improving and sharing knowledge and information
  on climate, water and adaptation measures, and
  investing in comprehensive and sustainable data
  collection and monitoring systems.

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• Quality climate data will be particularly
  important for water management systems for shared
  basins that span more than one country. There are
  263 trans-boundary river and lake basins
  worldwide. Sound scientific information is vital
  to decision-making about the allocation of these
  water supplies and investments in infrastructure.
  
• Drought early warning information systems,
  consisting of monitoring, prediction, risk
  assessment and communication, are inadequate in
  most regions of the world including Nigeria.

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• Integrated flood management is the best solution
  to flood problems and it embraces flood
  preparedness and prevention strategies, rather
  than purely emergency response.
• It involves climate risk management, flood risk
  assessment, land use regulation, flood insurance,
  enhanced hydro-meteorological monitoring, flood
  disaster preparedness, emergency management and
  recovery.

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Estimated water situation in 2050
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Problems of too little water
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Problems of too much water
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Getting the World to work in Partnership

• Agriculture
• Poor and lack of fertilizers, water resources,
  environmental degradation, pollution,
  desertification, and competition from expanding
  urban areas for land and labour are major stress
  in agriculture.
• Climate change will add pressure to the already
  stressed food market, especially in rain-fed
  agricultural societies.
• To reduce the food stress, reliable weather,
  climate and water information etc., are essential
  to guide the food and agriculture sector.
• Scientists should understand what farmers want
  and that farmers know how to access and use the
  information. This information must be downscaled
  to meet national and community needs.

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• Cities
• United Nations data show that the worlds
  population living in urban areas rose from 29 per
  cent in 1950 to 50 per cent in 2010 this is
  expected to grow to 69 per cent in 2050.
• Mega-cities with a population of 10 million
  people or more has grown from 2 in 1950 (New
  York City and Tokyo) to 19 in 2007 (Lagos).
• Cities and urban areas use about 75 per cent of
  the worlds energy and are responsible for 75 per
  cent of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Analysis of weather, climate and water factors is
  critical to supplying the input needs of cities,
  managing their liveability and sustainability and
  reducing the risks and costs of natural hazards.

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• Three-quarters of all large cities are located in
  coastal regions (Lagos, Calabar, Port Harcourt).
• Globally, 60 per cent of the worlds population
  lives in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (less than
  10 metres above sea level), which are potentially
  vulnerable to sea level rise.
• Extreme weather events and climate change
  underscore the need to involve meteorological and
  hydrological services in urban planning and
  engineering, infrastructure development, beach
  management and coastal defences to face future
  challenges.
• Hydrologists, climate scientists and weather
  forecasters therefore need to work closely to
  develop water management strategies for
  mega-cities.

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• Health
• Climate change will affect health of millions of
  people in a variety of ways.
• More intense heat waves pose risks to the health
  of children and the elderly
• drought raises the potential for malnutrition
  and cluster within a limited water supply that
  may result in water borne diseases.
• Drier condition encourages sand and dust storms
  that affect the respiratory system.
• Mosquitoes thrive in wetter, warmer conditions
  and climate change may extend their limit of
  impacts to higher latitudes where they and not
  found currently.

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• Public health needs team approach that combines
  the expertise of public health specialists with
  that of economists, ecologists, hydrologists,
  climate scientists and meteorologists.
• Transportation
• Weather services play a critical role in
  supporting the complex networks of shipping,
  aviation and land transport in several ways
• to aid safety and reduce risks, and to optimize
  efficiency and reliability amid variable weather,
  climatic and oceanic conditions.
• The airline industry is the primary means for
  long distance travel for business and leisure
  travellers and it provides a rapid global
  distribution system for high-value or perishable
  goods.
• Renewable energy production must deal with demand
  changes and significant supply-side variability,
  particularly shortages in rainfall for
  hydroelectricity, lack of wind for wind farms and
  cloudiness for solar energy installations.

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• Pilots, airline operations and air traffic
  managers need information on wind speed and
  direction, clouds, icing potential, locations of
  thunderstorms, and weather conditions at
  airports.
• Commercial airlines also routinely use this
  information to calculate optimum routes and
  altitudes throughout a flight.
• This brings many benefits, like avoiding dangers,
  achieving a smoother flight, reducing fuel usage
  and costs, and ensuring better adherence to
  scheduled arrival times.
• Renewable energy production must deal with demand
  changes and significant supply-side variability,
  particularly shortages in rainfall for
  hydroelectricity, lack of wind for wind farms and
  cloudiness for solar energy installations.
• Whether for future planning, new plant design or
  minute-by-minute operations, the use of
  meteorological and hydrological information will
  improve the outcomes and lower the risks.
• Industrial processes need ample water and energy.

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• Energy
• Renewable energy production must deal with demand
  changes and significant supply-side variability,
  particularly shortages in rainfall for
  hydroelectricity, lack of wind for wind farms and
  cloudiness for solar energy installations.
• Whether for future planning, new plant design or
  minute-by-minute operations, the use of
  meteorological and hydrological information will
  improve the outcomes and lower the risks.

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Natural Disasters The Nigerian Example
Table 5 Top 10 most outstanding Natural
Disasters in Nigeria for the period of 1900 -2012
sorted by numbers of people affected
Disasters Date Total No Affected
Drought Jun-83 3,000,000
Flood 13-Sep-10 1,500,200
Flood 11-Sep-94 580,000
Flood Aug-88 300,000
Flood 5-Sep-03 210,000
Flood 10-Sep-09 150,000
Flood 10-Oct-98 100,000
Flood 15-Sep-99 90,000
Flood 27-Aug-01 84,065
Epidemic Oct-69 80,000
Total 6,094,265
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• Out of the10 most outstanding Natural Disasters
  in Nigeria between 1900 -2012
• Drought affected 3,000,000 people
• Flood inundated areas that led to the evacuation
  of 3,014,265 people
• Epidemic affected 80,000 people

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Table 7 Top 10 Costliest Natural Disasters in
Nigeria between 1900 2012 sorted by economic
damage costs
Disasters Date Damage (000 US
Drought Jun-83 71,103
Flood 11-Sep-94 66,500
Flood 13-Sep-10 30,000
Flood 23-Sep-85 8,000
Flood 20-Sep-00 4,805
Flood 27-Aug-01 3,000
Flood 5-Sep-03 2,570
Flood 15-Aug-00 1,900
Flood 28-Aug-11 1,500
Flood 7-Aug-05 147
Total 189,525
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• Table 3 Financial Cost of Flooding in Benin City
  (2008-2010)

S/N Location Area coverage (m2) No. of Buildings Cost No. of Plots Cost
1. Adolo College Road 54,000 2 76.3m (108.666) 3 9.30m (62,000)
2. Tomeline 143,261 6 47.8m (318,666) 16 124.4 (826,666)
3. Five Junction 95,761 - - - -
4. Siluko/Uwelu Road 391,240 12 414.4(2,763m) 32 153.6m (1.024m)
5 Dumez Road 121,500 14 438.2m (2,921m) 25 135.6m (904,000)
6. Ogiso Quarters 79,200 5 33.4m (222,666) 18 81.7m (544,666)
7 Uwasota Road 28,351 4 42.1m (280,660) 46.4m (309,333)
Total 913,313m 67 1.052b (7,015m) 102 551m (3.671m).
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Climate Services
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Climate Services contd.

• Efficient management of the climatic risks today
  is the foundation for managing the changed
  climatic risks of tomorrow and that requires
  adequate preparedness.
• The best way to prepare is through acquisition of
  extremely effective climate services which will
  be made available to users especially those in
  most vulnerable areas. Coastal south and desert
  prone North in Nigeria
• But there is a wide gap between the needs for
  climate services and their current provision,
  especially in climate-vulnerable developing
  countries.
• A well articulated climate services will provide
  relevant and timely information to every sector
  ranging from government decision-makers to
  businesses to farmers.

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• Potential users of climate services will include
  the followings among others.
• Land-use regulation and environmental protection
• Urban and industrial planning
• Structural design of weather-resistant buildings
• Infrastructural development for rising sea levels
  and storms
• Energy supply management
• Transportation and fuel efficiency
• Water supply planning and dam construction
• Land cultivation and livestock management
• Health system response to extreme heat and cold
• Water-borne disease control.

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• Lack or limited knowledge of climate services has
  resulted in hundreds of thousands of lives being
  lost, and millions devastated by extreme weather
  events .
• The greatest injustice on our watch is that those
  who did the least to cause climate change are the
  first and hardest hit.
• We need to rectify this by bringing climate
  information to the most vulnerable and enabling
  them to act.
• The Nigerian Meteorological Agency is trying in
  this respect through daily weather forecast and
  recently annual climatic predictions available
  through print and electronic media

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National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NMHSs)

• Generate, gather and analyse data on weather,
  climate and water
• Convert such data to value-added information that
  protects lives and livelihoods in the following
  areas
• Public safety. providing warnings of approaching
  storms and other hazards for public authorities
  to take action, e.g. closing transportation
  systems or evacuating people for public safety.
• Airports and seaports. Provides daily weather
  forecasts to specialized predictions of oil slick
  movements, dust storm and volcanic ash cloud
  dispersal etc.

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• Heating and air conditioning design. Historical
  temperature and humidity data are essential in
  the design of heating and air conditioning
  systems. Increasingly, wind and solar radiation
  data is being used to design buildings that
  require less heating and air conditioning.
• Building codes. Wind speed data can be analysed
  to estimate the strength of winds likely to be
  encountered in different parts of settlement and
  for different heights of buildings. Likewise,
  snow depth data can be used to establish security
  criteria in regions where buildings have to be
  resistant to heavy snow packs.

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• Water supply. Historical data is the main basis
  for designing public water supply systems, but
  droughts can still occur and storage reservoirs
  may fail to meet demand. Water system managers
  use meteorological and hydrological information,
  including seasonal climate forecasts to assess
  risks and make key decisions.
• Sustainability. Most initiatives on cleaner air
  and water, renewable energy, public education and
  public transportation require information on
  weather, climate and water.

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Sustainable Future
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Conclusion and Recommendations

• Human activities have increasingly impacted on
  our weather, climate and water causing floods,
  severe storms, heat waves, droughts etc. that
  leads to loss of lives and damage to property.
• Adequate climatic and water data are needed both
  for adaptation and decision making.
• National Meteorological and Hydrological
  Services are at the fore of efforts to observe
  and understand the complex inter-relationship
  between weather, climate and water and their
  environmental connectivity .
• We rely on up-to-the minute, reliable weather
  forecasts for everything ranging from social
  activities to multi-million dollar decisions.

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• Reliable and timely weather, climate and water
  information provided by NMHSs will be fundamental
  for the sustainability of the present and future
  well-being of our society and our planet.
• So investment in NMHSs by the governments,
  governmental agencies and parastatal,
  Non-governmental Organizations and corporate
  bodies among others is more necessary than ever,
  so that NMHSs can meet these demands and have the
  means and will power for powering our future
  with weather, climate and water.

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• THANK YOU