Crisis Management: Operating Inside Their OODA Loops

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Crisis Management Operating Inside Their OODA
Loops
U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Master Sgt. Mahmoud
Rasouliyan

• Chet RichardsJ. Addams PartnersAtlanta
• April 4, 2008

Adapted from a presentation to the First Adaptive
Leadership Symposium,Greenville Technical
Institute March 19, 2008
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Why were here today
Many homeland security drills now are
command-post type exercises in which
participation and decisions are
downward-directed, the opposite of how the event
will unfold in the real world. The secret to
military efficiency has always been solid
planning, training and exercising. It has great
merit for adoption by others. U.S. Has Strategy
for Homeland Security, But Are We Ready?By
Lawrence P. Farrell Jr.,President, National
Defense Industrial AssociationNational Defense,
February 2008.
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According to Boyd, a fighter pilot didnt win
by faster reflexes he won because his reflexes
were connected to a brain that thought faster
than the opponent. Bing West and Ray
Smith,The March Up, p. 11
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Using the OODA loopto make better decisions
faster
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Leadership (a la Boyd)

• Appreciation refers to the recognition of worth
  or value, clear perception, understanding,
  comprehension, discernment, etc.
• Leadership implies the art of inspiring people to
  enthusiastically take action toward the
  achievement of uncommon goals.

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Appreciation and leadership Organic Design,
Chart 34

• Nature
• Appreciation and leadership permit one to
  discern, direct and shape what is to be done as
  well as permit one to modify the direction and
  shaping by assessing what is being done or about
  to be done (by friendlies as well as
  adversaries).
• What does this mean?
• Appreciation, as part of leadership, must provide
  assessment of what is being done in a clear
  unambiguous way. In this sense, appreciation must
  not interact nor interfere with the system but
  must discern (not shape) the character/nature of
  what is being done or about to be done
• whereas
• Leadership must give direction in terms of what
  is to be done also in a clear unambiguous way. In
  this sense, leadership must interact with the
  system to shape the character or nature of that
  system in order to realize what is to be done.
• Implication
• Assessment and discernment should be invisible
  and should not interfere with operations while
  direction and shaping should be evident to
  systemotherwise appreciation and leadership do
  not exist as an effective means to improve our
  fitness to shape and cope with unfolding
  circumstances.

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Why are appreciation and leadership important?

• The simple answer is that they permit people to
• Operate inside opponents OODA loops
• Create organizations that can operate inside
  opponents OODA loops
• Evolve organizations that become continually
  better at operating inside opponents OODA loops

In military operations, time is
everything. Colonel Arthur WellesleyDespatchJune
30, 1800
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Operate inside opponents OODA loops ???
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Operate inside opponents OODA loops

• Intentions
• Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths,
  weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.
• Employ a variety of measures that interweave
  menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of
  ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever
  adversarys moral ties and disorient
• Select initiative (or response) that is least
  expected.
• Establish focus of main effort together with
  other effort and pursue directions that permit
  many happenings, offer many branches, and
  threaten alternative objectives.
• Move along paths of least resistance (to
  reinforce and exploit success).
• Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic,
  chaos to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis
  and bring about collapse.
• Become an extraordinary commander.

permits one to

• Transients
• Observe, orient, decide and act more
  inconspicuously, more quickly, and with more
  irregularity
• or put another way
• Operate inside adversarys observation-orientation
  -decision action loops or get inside his
  mind-time-space.

Patterns of Conflict, 132
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Why worry about OODA loops?

• Intentions
• Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths,
  weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions.
• Employ a variety of measures that interweave
  menace-uncertainty-mistrust with tangles of
  ambiguity-deception-novelty as basis to sever
  adversarys moral ties and disorient
• Select initiative (or response) that is least
  expected.
• Establish focus of main effort together with
  other effort and pursue directions that permit
  many happenings, offer many branches, and
  threaten alternative objectives.
• Move along paths of least resistance (to
  reinforce and exploit success).
• Generate uncertainty, confusion, disorder, panic,
  chaos to shatter cohesion, produce paralysis
  and bring about collapse.
• Become an extraordinary commander.

permits one to

• Transients
• Observe, orient, decide and act more
  inconspicuously, more quickly, and with more
  irregularity
• or put another way
• Operate inside adversarys observation-orientation
  -decision action loops or get inside his
  mind-time-space.

• Change the situation before
• Customers get bored
• Competitors think of something more attractive
• Opponents figure out whats going on
• The situation changes itself in ways you may
  not like

Patterns of Conflict, 132
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Tom Peters on Boyd

• Confuse and confound the enemyby your speed,
  per se. While theChampions of Inertia are busy
  scheduling the next planning review, you
  swiftly get the job done and go public with it.
  (Re-imagine! P. 219)

The OODA loop is the real nub of
competitiveness.
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So, what is an OODA loop????
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The OODA Loop Sketch
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
ImplicitGuidance Control
ImplicitGuidance Control
UnfoldingCircumstances
Observations
Action(Test)
FeedForward
OutsideInformation
UnfoldingInteractionWithEnvironment
UnfoldingInteractionWithEnvironment
Feedback
Note how orientation shapes observation, shapes
decision, shapes action, and in turn is shaped by
the feedback and other phenomena coming into our
sensing or observing window. Also note how the
entire loop (not just orientation) is an
ongoing many-sided implicit cross-referencing
process of projection, empathy, correlation, and
rejection.
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Why cant we use this one?
Orient
Observe
Decide
Act
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Why cant we use this one?
Orient

• It doesnt work very well in crises
• Sequential
• Slow
• Easy to disrupt
• Quality and quickness trade off
• Sometimes good for engineering-type applications
  (no human competition)

Decide
Observe
Act
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So lets use the real one(Its actually not that
complicated)
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
ImplicitGuidance Control
ImplicitGuidance Control
UnfoldingCircumstances
Observations
Action(Test)
FeedForward
OutsideInformation
UnfoldingInteractionWithEnvironment
UnfoldingInteractionWithEnvironment
Feedback
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The trick is to start with Orientation
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Orientation

• On-going process, not a picture
• Building snowmobiles new concepts and ideas
  using analyses and synthesis
• By taking what weve learned and whats going on
  now
• And coming up with new strategies, plans, and
  actions that match up better with reality
• In a conflict environment where somebody else
  is trying to do this to you!

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Key points

• The side whose orientation best matches up with
  reality will find opportunities to
• Operate inside customers and competitors OODA
  loops
• Seize the initiative
• Pump up own morale and hurt opponents
• Think up, test, and exploit (or drop) ideas for
  new products, services, tactics, and other
  responses while they are still likely to be
  effective
• In other words Understand a fast-developing
  world while theres still time to do something
  about it

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Implication

• We need to create mental images, views, or
  impressions, hence patterns that match with
  activity of world. Organic Design, chart 16
• In business, this means that our orientation
  needs to stay better matched to reality than
  competitors and customers
• Which means that often we have a good idea of
  what customers want before they do
• In crisis management and armed conflict, the
  meaning is pretty obvious!

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Implication

• We need to create mental images, views, or
  impressions, hence patterns that match with
  activity of world. Organic Design, chart 16
• In business, this means that our orientation
  needs to stay better matched to reality than
  competitors and customers
• Which means that often we have a good idea of
  what customers want before they do
• In crisis management and armed conflict, the
  meaning is pretty obvious!

In Boyds universe, conflict is a competition
between novelty-generating systems, or
equivalently, learning systems.
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What about action?

• The idea is that the vast majority of the time,
  actions should flow smoothly from orientation via
  the implicit guidance and control link.
• This is the purpose behind the years of training
  that elite military units and martial artists
  undergo building something the Germans called
  Fingerspitzengefühl.

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Rommel believed that in the subsequent
unpredictable fighting, the training of his
troops and his own quickness of mind would bring
victory. Douglas FraserKnights Cross
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A little about Observation

• It is an active process
• Probe and test adversary to unmask strengths,
  weaknesses, maneuvers, and intentions (POC 132)
• Nothing is more important
• Without clear observation, you wont be able to
  spot mismatches before customers and competitors
  do
• And correct your orientation
• And take action to exploit the new situation
• While theres still time to do something
  meaningful

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When your objective perception is clear, you
dont miss one out of ten thousand. Zen Master
Shoju Rojin,quoted in Thomas Cleary,The
Japanese Art of War, p. 36.
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Then, what are decisions?
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The key idea is to emphasize implicit over
explicit in order to gain a favorable mismatch in
friction and time (i.e, ours lower than any
adversary) for superiority in shaping and
adapting to circumstances. Organic Design, 22
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Intuitively
Do not forget that actual combat is extremely
fast and demands that you act and react without
thinking. Moving with the enemy means not
permitting him to gather his thoughts when in
retreat. Either you will lead the enemy
Or he will lead you.
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Then, what are decisions?

• Explicit (stated) decisions are needed if
• You dont have the mutual trust/common outlook
  for implicit decisions
• You cant use implicit decisions (e.g., nuclear
  weapons)
• Youre trying things (experiments) - note Boyds
  alternative labels - or in training

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A hint to future leaders

• Research shows that when dealing with a new,
  complex, and confusing situation, good leaders
  (and effective teams)
• begin by carrying out lots of small experiments
  (decisions / actions) at a high tempo (see
  Dörner, 1996),

Explicit part of the loop - through the
Decision/Hypothesis and Act/Test boxes
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A hint to future leaders

• Research shows that when dealing with a new,
  complex, and confusing situation, good leaders
  (and effective teams)
• begin by carrying out lots of small experiments
  (decisions / actions) at a high tempo (see
  Dörner, 1996),

Explicit part of the loop - through the
Decision/Hypothesis and Act/Test boxes
The Prius is the result of a development system
that tries out many approaches to every problem,
then gets the winning concept to the customer
very quickly with low engineering cost, low
manufacturing cost, and near perfect quality.
(Jim Womack, WSJ 2/13/2006)
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Wrapping up the OODA loop

• Key Points
• When youre doing OODA loops right,accuracy
  and speed improve together they dont trade off.
• The main function of leadership is to build an
  organization that gets better and better at these
  things.

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In summary The OODA loop is a model for
manipulating time.

• With a time advantage you can
• Try more things
• Recover from mistakes and learn more quickly
• Make opponents react to you
• Shape the situation
• Improve quality and cost, simultaneously
• Make size irrelevant

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A time-compressed company does the same thing as
a pilot in an OODA loop Its the competitor who
acts on information faster who is in the best
position to win.
George Stalk Tom Hout,Competing Against
Time,pp. 180-181.
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• Military analysts saywe US Navy SEALsare
  becoming skilled disciples of John Boyd. That
  is, we execute the Boyd Loopobservation,
  orientation, decision, action (OODA)far better
  and far quicker than our enemies.
• Dick Couch,The Finishing School, p. 258

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What type of organizations operate at rapid OODA
loop tempos?
The answer is Organizations whose leaders have,
over time, imbued certain qualities into the
fiber of their very being. Here are four of these
qualities ?
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A climate for growing and focusing creativity and
initiative

• Fingerspitzengefühl - Superb competence, leading
  to a Zen-like state of intuitive understanding.
  Ability to sense when the time is ripe for
  action. Built through years of progressively
  more challenging experience. Magic.
• Einheit - Has the connotation of "mutual trust"
  and implies a common outlook towards business
  problems. Built through shared experience.
  Fingerspitzengefühl at the organizational level.

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A climate for growing and focusing creativity and
initiative

• Schwerpunkt - Any concept that gives focus and
  direction to our efforts. In ambiguous
  situations, answers the question, "What do I do
  next? Key function of leadership.
• Auftragstaktik Convey to team members what
  needs to be accomplished, get their agreement to
  accomplish it, then hold them strictly
  accountable for doing it - but don't prescribe
  how. Requires very strong common outlook.

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Before ending this presentation, Id like to
highlight one last aspect of Boyds
organizational climate, a different way of
looking at Einheit oneness/cohesion.
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Common Outlook / Similar Implicit Orientation
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The common outlook

• Message
• According to General Gunther Blumentritt, such a
  scheme presupposes a common outlook based upon a
  body of professional officers who have received
  exactly the same training during the long years
  of peace and with the same tactical education,
  the same way of thinking, identical speech, hence
  a body of officers to whom all tactical
  conceptions were fully clear.
• Furthermore, a la General Blumentritt, it
  presupposes an officers training institution
  which allows the subordinate a very great measure
  of freedom of action and freedom in the manner of
  executing orders and which primarily calls for
  independent daring, initiative and sense of
  responsibility.
• Point
• Without a common outlook superiors cannot give
  subordinates freedom-of-action and maintain
  coherency of ongoing action.
• Implication
• A common outlook possessed by a body of
  officers represents a unifying theme that can be
  used to simultaneously encourage subordinate
  initiative yet realize superior intent.

Boyd, Patterns of Conflict, 74
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The common outlook

• Message
• According to General Gunther Blumentritt, such a
  scheme presupposes a common outlook based upon a
  body of professional officers who have received
  exactly the same training during the long years
  of peace and with the same tactical education,
  the same way of thinking, identical speech, hence
  a body of officers to whom all tactical
  conceptions were fully clear.
• Furthermore, a la General Blumentritt, it
  presupposes an officers training institution
  which allows the subordinate a very great measure
  of freedom of action and freedom in the manner of
  executing orders and which primarily calls for
  independent daring, initiative and sense of
  responsibility.
• Point
• Without a common outlook superiors cannot give
  subordinates freedom-of-action and maintain
  coherency of ongoing action.
• Implication
• A common outlook possessed by a body of
  officers represents a unifying theme that can be
  used to simultaneously encourage subordinate
  initiative yet realize superior intent.

Boyd, Patterns of Conflict, 74
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Einheit Common Outlook

• Composed of four main elements
• Shared code of moral and ethical behavior
• Agreed framework for how things are done
• Base of experience working together
• Common appreciation of leaderships overall goals
  (commanders intent / Schwerpunkt) and progress
  towards reaching those goals

Values
Doctrine
Teamwork
Mission
But at the core of the Linux and Toyota
communities are rules about three entirely
different things how individuals and small
groups work together how and how widely, they
communicate and how leaders guide them toward a
common goal. Philip Evans and Bob Wolf,
Collaboration Rules,Harvard Business Review,
July-August 2005., 3
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What you do with Einheit Organic Design, Chart
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• Suppress tendency to build-up explicit internal
  arrangements that hinder interaction with
  external world.
• Instead
• Arrange setting and circumstances so that leaders
  and subordinates alike are given opportunity to
  continuously interact with external world, and
  with each other, in order to more quickly make
  many-sided implicit cross-referencing
  projections, empathies, correlations, and
  rejections as well as create the similar images
  or impressions, hence a similar implicit
  orientation, needed to form an organic whole.
• Why?
• A similar implicit orientation for commanders and
  subordinates alike will allow them to
• Diminish their friction and reduce time, thereby
  permit them to
• Exploit variety/rapidity while maintaining
  harmony/initiative, thereby permit them to
• Get inside adversarys O-O-D-A loops, thereby
• Magnify adversarys friction and stretch-out his
  time (for a favorable mismatch in friction and
  time), thereby
• Deny adversary the opportunity to cope with
  events/efforts as they unfold.

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Doctrine
Teamwork
Values
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Doctrine
Teamwork
Mission
Values
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