A Tribute To Sarah Lichtenstein Risk Perception

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A Tribute To Sarah LichtensteinRisk Perception

• Elke U. Weber
• Center for Decision Sciences (CDS)
• Columbia University
• SJDM, St. Louis, 2011

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Sarah Lichtenstein

• Trail Blazer/Pioneer
• Leading JDM Topics
• Preference Construction
• Decision Analysis/Uncertainty Assessment
• Probability and Confidence Judgments
• Risk Perception (Queen of Risk)
• Methods
• Preference Reversal paradigm
• Multidimensional scaling of risk similarity
  judgments
• Role Model
• Mother of (S)JDM
• Her life history as reference-point therapy

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Sarah Lichtenstein
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Sarah Lichtenstein (by Zuckerman)
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1970s Sarah Lichtenstein by Roy Lichtenstein
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Sarahs Impact on Risk Research

• Psychological risk dimensions research
  established that perceptions of risk
• Matter
• Are not (only) consequential
• Have strong experiential and affective component,
  anticipating
• Emotions revolution
• Decisions from experience vs. from description
• Are subjective
• Relative
• Compared to what?
• Recent work on Coefficient of Variation (CV
  STD/EV)
• Domain specific
• Growing body of work on DOSPERT risk perceptions
  and risk attitudes
• Depend on culture, anticipating
• Mary Douglas Aaron Wildawskis anthropological
  perspective of perceiving risk in things that
  threaten ones values or way of life

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Sarahs Impact on Risk Research

• Psychological risk dimensions research
  established that perceptions of risk
• Matter
• Are not (only) consequential
• Have strong experiential and affective component,
  anticipating
• Emotions revolution
• Decisions from experience vs. from description
• Are subjective
• Relative
• Compared to what?
• Recent work on Coefficient of Variation (CV
  STD/EV)
• Domain specific
• Growing body of work on DOSPERT risk perceptions
  and risk attitudes
• Depend on culture, anticipating
• Mary Douglas Aaron Wildawskis anthropological
  perspective of perceiving risk in things that
  threaten ones values or way of life

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Scientific and Social Relevance

• Psychological risk dimensions work continues to
  explain many political debates
• Disagreements between domain experts and general
  public
• Actuaries and flood plain residents on flood
  risks
• Pediatricians and parents on vaccinations
• Disagreements between observers with different
  degrees of knowledge and different political
  ideologies
• Perception of risks of climate change by
  scientists, general public, Democrats,
  Republicans

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OBHDP 1998 Publication AnalysisGolden Oldies

• 1
• citation count then 777
• citation count now 895
• Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches
  to the study of information processing in
  judgment (Slovic Lichtenstein, 1971)
• 6
• citation count then 180
• citation count now 322
• Do those who know more also know more about how
  much they know? (Lichtenstein Fischhoff, 1977)
• 9
• citation count then 114
• citation count now 161
• Training for calibration (Lichtenstein
  Fischhoff, 1980)

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Other impactful papers (ISI Web of Science
citation counts)

• 1977 Annual Review Chapter ? 575
• Preference reversals
• JEP (1971) ? 473
• JEP (1973) ? 216
• AER (1983) ? 233
• Confidence
• JEPHPP (1977) ? 301
• JEPHLM (1980) ? 490
• Probability judgments
• JEPHPP (1978) ? 244
• JEPHLM (1978) ? 473

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More recent work has had an environmental focus

• Preference reversals and the measurement of
  environmental values
• Irwin, Slovic, Lichtenstein, McClelland, JRU
  (1993) (59 citations)
• Valuing environmental resources A constructive
  approach
• Gregory, Lichtenstein, Slovic, JRU (1993)
  (154 citations)
• Whats bad is easy Taboo values, affect, and
  cognition
• Lichtenstein, Gregory, Irwin, JDM (2007)

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Sarahs Risks
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Sarah Lichtenstein