Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment

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Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment
Management

• Lisa Pace
• Malta Council for Science Technology
• Lisa.pace_at_mcst.org.mt

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Outline

• Dimensions of environment.
• Uncertainty in complex Environmental Systems
• Rationale for carrying out foresight-type
  exercises in environment-related issues.
• Techniques/tools used in environmental foresight.
• Participatory processes and dialogue
• Consensus conferences
• Scenario analysis. Decision-support tools.
• Look-out panels Biomarkers

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The Environment A Complex System
E C O N O M I C D I M E N S I O N
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Addressing Complex Environmental Problems as
Systems

• Priority areas of action in the ECs Sixth
  Environment Action Programme Environment 2010
  Our future, our choice
•   
• Climate Change (Green House Gas GHG- Emissions)
• Nature and protection of biodiversity
• Environment and Health
• Sustainable use of natural resources
• Chemicals and Air Pollution
• Waste Prevention and Recycling
•  

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Transport
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Environmental represent Complex Systems with high
degree of Uncertainty

• Incomplete information or knowledge exists on how
  these systems work.
• Little is known on how they impact the
  environment and society.
• The impact is difficult to quantify.
• Models may propose different outcomes.

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These systems raise uncertainties of many sorts.

• What is the impact of GMOs on natural
  biodiversity and human health? What is the cost
  of a No GMO Policy?
• How will climate change impact biodiversity?
• What is the impact of fisheries on marine
  ecosystems?

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In this climate of uncertainty

• Decisions must be made TODAY, before conclusive
  evidence is available.
• The stakes revolving around these issues are
  normally high, with strong economic and social
  interests which often conflict with environmental
  aspects.
• What if these decisions are wrong? What impact
  will they have on society at large?
• How can uncertainties be taken into account in
  environmental policy-making?

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Environmental Assessment measuring, managing,
reducing uncertainty

• Uncertainties cannot be eliminated but simply
  managed effectively and in a transparent manner.
• Methodologies to assess the risk and uncertainty
  associated with a policy issue. Environmental
  Assessment. The degree or level of uncertainty
  must be presented to policy-maker.
• Methodology to assess or evaluate knowledge
  generated in policy process. How robust and
  reliable is this knowledge? And therefore how
  effectively does it contribute to policy cycle?

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Creating socially-robust Knowledge to manage
(reduce) uncertainty

• Public participation stakeholder engagement -
  in policy cycle. Increased legitimacy and
  transparency (this is more about the process
  other than the product!)
• Quality control such as extended peer review.
• Interdisciplinarity
• Accountability and Transparency of policy-making
  process.
• Holistic approach to environmental management
  Ecosystems Management Approach

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The policy cycle

• Foresight is seen to feed into the policy cycle
  at three levels
• It provides tools for stakeholder engagement.
  Involvement in the policy process
• It provides for visions of future policy options
  through scenario analysis.
• It can be used as an early warning signal of
  environmental problems

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Rationale for carrying out Environmental
Foresight (1)

• Prospective analysis can be used to
  identify emerging problems and solutions early.
  Provide an Early-Warning System to
  environmental issues/problems.
• This is more effective than the
  conventional approach of waiting to act until
  adverse effects on the environment and human
  health are high and in some cases irreversible.
  (Alternative Futures, June 2003).
• Foresight can help questions such as
  what are the envisaged future environmental
  problems? What steps should be taken to solve
  them (e.g. air pollution and its management) and
  even perhaps prevent such problems from arising
  in the first place?
• Foresight is useful in environmental assessment,
  a tool which provides basic information on the
  current state of the environment but also
  addresses the future state of the environment
  (EEA, 2000).

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Rationale for carrying out Environmental
Foresight (1)

• Foresight is a useful tool for synthesising
  and communicating complex and extensive
  scientific information to decision makers and the
  public, thus bridging the gap between scientists
  and the community.
• A participatory approach in a foresight exercise
  promotes Dialogue i.e. interaction and mutual
  exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders
  (including scientists) with the aim of promoting
  co-operation it is a process of multi-lateral
  communication across disciplines and institutions

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A toolbox of foresight methods can be applied to
environmental management

• 1.      Scenario Analysis with both qualitative
  and quantitative elements (SAS, story-line and
  simulation). Back-casting techniques
• 2.      Consensus conferences
• 3.      Expert Panels
• 4.      Delphi surveys
• 5.      Look-out Panels
• 6. modelling
• Not all these methods are future-oriented but
  complement techniques typically used in foresight
  exercises. Scenario analysis is the major
  foresight tool used in environmental management
  strategies.

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Participatory approach in Environmental
Policy-making Building a Science Society
Dialogue

• A participatory approach in a foresight exercise
  promotes Dialogue i.e. interaction and mutual
  exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders
  (including scientists) with the aim of promoting
  co-operation it is a process of multi-lateral
  communication across disciplines and institutions
  

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Consensus Conferences

• Democratic tool used to promote dialogue between
  experts and non-experts.
• Involves the non-expert or lay public in
  policy-making process where the non-expert could
  include decision-makers in company
  (top-management), directors in government
  departments, ministers, lay public, board of
  directors etc.
• Described as a Citizens Jury. A citizens or
  lay panel a list of key questions to address to
  an expert panel during the three-day conference.
• Used to discuss hot, emerging issues in ST.

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Consensus Conferences

• Examples
• Widely used in Denmark in relation to public
  perception of GM Foods and gene therapy.
• UK National Consensus Conference on Plant
  Biotechnology, 1996
• UK National Consensus Conference on Waste, 1996
• Fast Food and technoburgers, Norwegian Consensus
  Conference, 1996
• Safety and Ethics of GMOS, Korea 1998
• Korean Second Consensus Conference on Cloning,
  1999
• Australian Biotech Consensus Conference, 1999 (GM
  Foods and Feed Issues)

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Scenario Building
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Example 1 COOL Climate OptiOns for the
Long-term, The NetherlandsCombined
Qualitative-Quantitative and Anticipatory
(normative) scenarios

• Two-year foresight exercise with the goal of
• Developing recommendations for drastic (80)
  Green House Gas (GHG) emission reductions by 2050
  compared to 1990 levels.
• Time-horizon 2050
• Baseline year 1990 
• Discussed possibility of emission reductions in 4
  sectors (1) Industry Energy (2) Housing
  Construction (3) Transport Traffic and (4)
  Agriculture Nutrition.
• Back-casting Technique retrospective in that
  starts from a pre-determined desirable final
  state and explores conditions and strategies to
  achieve this state. It can be divided into a
  number of steps.

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Back-casting Technique to build Scenarios for
Energy Sector
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Governance of Water Resources the GOUVERNE
Project

• FP5 Research Project implemented by a
  consortium of partners, including the European
  Commissions Joint Research Centre.
• Aims
• Application of suitable tools, namely scenario
  analysis to the policy debate on The future of
  ground water resources in a valley in the South
  West of France.

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GOUVERNE Project

• Involvement of all relevant social actors or
  stakeholders in the debate.
• Develop an ICT tool to support decision-making
  and policy-making processes/

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GOUVERNE Methodology in Brief

• Interviews to identify major stakeholders in
  study area and understand nature of issue and
  conflicting interests in the French valley.
• Focus groups with stakeholders to identify (1)
  Drivers which are likely to affect the future
  water system (hydrological system) of the valley.
• Scenario Analysis based on identified drivers of
  change scenarios are narratives describing how
  stakeholders see the valley change in 2015
• Ranking of these scenarios. Which is the most
  likely or preferred scenario?

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GOUVERNe Project

• The outcome of the project
• Scenarios for the future hydrological system of
  the valley
• Stakeholder awareness and involvement in resource
  governance.
• An ICT tool for better resource management.

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Look-out Panels identifying biomarkers of
environmental health.

• Specialised look-out panels set up within public
  and/or private sector to identify biomarkers of
  environmental health. Panels may form part of the
  permanent set-up of organisation or appointed
  ad-hoc.
• Properties of biomarkers
• Early-warning signals of stress/disease and
  environmental degradation. Described as
  surrogate end-points as they can identify early
  symptoms before disease actually manifests itself
  e.g. heart disease.
• Huge savings on health care systems.
• Biomarkers must be evaluated and validated (e.g.
  by community reference laboratories).

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• Examples of Biomarkers
• Medicine and Health
• Blood pressure and cholesterol-LDL as surrogate
  end points of heart disease.
• Reduced T lymphocyte count and HIV load as
  surrogate end point of AIDS.
• Genetic fingerprinting
• Environment
• Changes in DNA structure as a result of exposure
  to organic pollutants (PCBs)
• Accumulation of deposits in cells of molluscs as
  a result of heavy metal contamination
• Reproductive sterility
• Embryonic deformities in echinoderms such as sea
  urchin.
• Eutrophication an indicator of nutrient
  enrichment