Criminal justice evaluation in the UK

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Criminal justice evaluation in the UK

• Chris Fox
• Dan Ellingworth

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Evidence-based policy
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Modern policy making

• Forward looking Defining policy outcomes and
  taking a long term view
• Outward looking Take account of national,
  European and international situation learning
  from experience of other countries recognising
  regional variations.
• Innovative, flexible Questioning established
  ways of dealing with things, encouraging new and
  creative ideas, identifying and managing risk.
• Joining up Joining up the work of different
  government departments ensuring that
  implementation is part of the policy process.
• Inclusive Consulting those responsible for
  implementation and those affected by the policy
  carrying out an impact assessment
• Evidence based Basing policy decisions and
  advice upon the best available evidence ensuring
  evidence is available in an accessible and
  meaningful form.
• Evaluated Systematic evaluation of the
  effectiveness of policy.
• Reviews Policy constantly reviewed to ensure it
  is dealing with problems it was designed to
  solve.
• Lessons learned Learning from experience of what
  works and what does not
• Cabinet Office (1999) Professional policy making
  for the twenty-first century London Cabinet
  Office

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What is evidence-based policy?

• Evidence-based policy (EBP). An approach that
• helps people make well informed decisions about
  policies, programmes and projects by putting the
  best available evidence from research at the
  heart of policy development and implementation
  (Davies 1999 quoted in Davies 2004)
• Contrasted with opinion-based policy which
• relies heavily on either the selective use of
  evidence (e.g. on single studies irrespective of
  quality) or on the untested views of individuals
  or groups, often inspired by ideological
  standpoints, prejudices, or speculative
  conjecture. (Davies 2004)

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Opinion-based policy
Taken from Chalmers, I. (2003) Campbell and
Cochrane the need for generosity of spirit and
mutual support Jerry Lee Lecture 3rd Annual
Campbell Colloquiem
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Opinion based policy
Taken from Chalmers, I. (2003) Campbell and
Cochrane the need for generosity of spirit and
mutual support Jerry Lee Lecture 3rd Annual
Campbell Colloquiem
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What factors influence policy?
Taken from Davies, P. (2004) Is evidence-based
government possible Jerry Lee Lecture 2004
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How to do an evaluation
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An evaluation framework

• Should it work? (Theory of change)
• What is the underlying theory of change which
  explains why the intervention will make an
  impact?
• Can it work? (Implementation evaluation)
• Has the project been properly implemented? What
  were the challenges to implementation and how
  were they overcome?
• Does it work? (Impact evaluation)
• What is the impact of the intervention?
• Is it worth it? (Economic evaluation)
• What are the resource implications of
  implementing the intervention and what benefits
  will it deliver?

Adapted from Haynes, B., 1999. BMJ 319652-653 (
11 September )
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Overview of possible methods
Review of project literature Review of international research literature Interviews with key stakeholders Staff interviews Observation of key processes Capture / analysis of monitoring data Capture / analysis of case files or other administrative data Interviews with service users Surveys of those affected Economic analysis
Should it work?
Can it work?
Does it work?
Is it worth it?
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Should it work? Theories of change

• Sometimes programmes and projects
• dont have clear aims or change their aims over
  time
• are shoe horned into a set of funding criteria
  to access that funding
• dont have clearly defined processes and
  structures
• are implemented in a multi-agency context where
  different agencies will have different ideas
  about what the project is trying to achieve

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Theories of change

• What is the conceptual link from an
  intervention's inputs to the production of its
  outputs and, subsequently, to its impacts on
  society in terms of results and outcomes?
• (United Kingdom Evaluation Society Glossary of
  evaluation terms http//www.evaluation.org.uk/Pub_
  library/Glossary.htm)

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Scared straight

• Started as US programme in 1970s
• Target group At risk or delinquent young people
• Prison visits including tour and confrontational
  meeting with serving prisoners
• Graphic depiction of life in prison
• TV documentary in US extols its virtues
• Also used in US

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Two possible theories of change
Visit to a Prison by juveniles First Hand Experience of Prison Life Exposure to Prison Life and Prisoners as Negative Role Models Frightens or Scares Juveniles Away from Crime Reduces Crime and Offending
or . . .
Visit to a Prison by juveniles First Hand Experience of Prison Life Exposure to Prison Life and Prisoners as Positive Role Models Stimulates or Attracts Juveniles Towards Crime Increases Crime and Offending
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Can it work? Process evaluation

• Identify whether the intervention has been
  implemented as intended
• Explore how a service or policy is delivered and
  experienced in practice
• Identify the mechanisms by which it can produce
  the desired effects, potential barriers and
  facilitators
• Identify circumstances under which successful
  operation might be replicated

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Scurvy

• James Lind (1716 1794) Ships Surgeon
• Lind selected 12 men, all suffering from scurvy
• Divided them into six pairs, giving each group
  different additions to their basic diet.
• Cider
• Seawater
• A mixture of garlic, mustard and horseradish
• Spoonfuls of vinegar
• Oranges
• Lemons.
• Those fed citrus fruits experienced a remarkable
  recovery
• In 1753, he published 'A Treatise of the Scurvy
• http//www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/lind
  _james.shtml

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Does it work? Impact evaluation
Sherman et al. (1998) Preventing Crime. What
works, what doesnt, whats promising. National
Institute of Justice.
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Measuring impact

• Choice of impact measures is often limited by
  availability of data or resources to collect
  primary data.
• In the UK, re-offending data can be accessed via
  the Police National Computer (PNC) or the
  Offender Index
• For less tangible outcomes such as family
  reconciliation or increased self-confidence the
  only option is often expensive face-to-face
  interviews/surveys.

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Finding a comparator

• A comparator group or area may not be readily
  available.
• While a programme or pilot area may be willing to
  cooperate with an evaluation an organisation that
  is not part of the evaluation but is being asked
  to provide data for a comparator area may be hard
  to persuade to cooperate.
• A regional or national roll-out may limit the
  number of potential comparator areas

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Throughputs

• Programmes and projects often struggle to
  generate sufficient throughputs to allow for
  robust statistical analysis.
• Set-up times are often under-estimated
• The need for inter-agency cooperation is often
  under-estimated

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Timescales

• Often evaluation timescales preclude appropriate
  follow-up periods to identify the long-term
  impact of interventions.
• The Home Office recommends that reconviction
  studies use a 2 year follow-up period.
• By the time a cohort to study has been generated
  this will often require an evaluation period of 3
  4 years.

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Systematic Reviews

• Systematic reviews are overviews of the existing
  research literature on a topic
• A comprehensive search of print, electronic, and
  unpublished sources is made.
• Sources identified are screened to see if they
  are relevant.
• The quality of the sources (the strength of the
  evidence) is then assessed.
• Sometimes the findings from individual studies
  are pooled in a process called meta-analysis

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Scared straight systematic review

• The systematic review shows that
• The program increases the percentage of the
  treatment group committing new offences anywere
  from 1 to 30. (365) (emphasis added)
• Petrosino, A., Turpin-Petrosino, C., and
  Finckenauer, J. (2000) Well-Meaning Programs Can
  Have Harmful Effects! Lessons from Experiments of
  Programs Such as Scared Straight Crime
  Delinquency 46 354

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Interested?

• If so, Chris and Dan run a Third Year Module
  called What works in social and criminal policy
  that looks in more detail at how policy is made
  and the role of evaluation in supporting the
  policy-making process.