What Do We Know About the GED as a

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What Do We Know About the GED as a Second
Chance Option for Dropouts?

• JOHN TYLER
• Brown University
• and
• National Bureau of Economic Research

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Who Gets a GED?

• 700K test and 500K pass and obtain a GED each
  yearmore than double 1970 rates
• 1 in 7 individuals reporting high school
  graduate are GED holders
• In 2000, 42 percent of all GED testers were age
  16-19.44 percent in Texas were age 16-19
• 82K dropouts attempted the GED in Texas in
  2000most in the nation (NY had 65.9K)
• Almost 1 in 3 GEDs obtained by young, black males
  are obtained while in prison

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What are the economic returns to a GED?

• Compared to whom?
• Compared to HS grads, GEDs consistently do worse
  in the labor market (Cameron and Heckman, 1993)
• Compared to uncredentialed dropouts, GED is
  important for some, but only some, dropouts
  (Tyler, Murnane, and Willett)
• Major findings
• 15 percent GED effect on earnings for
  low-skilled dropoutsno GED effect for dropouts
  who leave with high skill levels
• Takes time (5 years) for earnings effect to
  appear
• Even at 15 percent earnings increase, GED no
  ticket out of poverty
• Returns to postsecondary education as high for
  GED holders as for regular HS gradsbest use of
  GED is route to further education
• ProblemGED holders get very little postsecondary
  education

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Is the GED an effective route to PSE for dropouts?

• 1992 study looking at 1980 sophomores
• 30 percent of GEDs had any PSE, compared to 70
  percent of HS grads (only 11 percent of GEDs had
  more than 1 year of PSE)
• 0.4 mean years of PSE for GEDs, compared to 2.85
  for HS grads
• 24 percent of GEDs had at least one credit at
  2-yr college and 6 percent had at least one
  credit at 4-yr college

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Is the GED an effective route to PSE for
dropoutsnew information from TSP data?

• What is correct comparison group for answering
  this question?
• 1) Individuals who were designated at risk
• 2) Individuals who were held back at least one
  year in high school.

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Findings based on TSP data
1998 Cohort using a 3 year window (4 year window
for cert. and grad.)
Enrolled w/n 3 yrs Accumulated credits Certification from 2 yr Graduated 2-yr
GEDs 0.20 7.3 lt0.01 lt0.01
All HS grads 0.59 32.8 0.02 0.04
At-risk HS grads 0.38 15.6 0.02 0.02
Late HS grads 0.08 1.8 lt0.01 lt0.01
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Findings based on TSP data
1996 Cohort using a 5 year window (6 year window
for cert. and grad.)
Enrolled w/n 5 yrs Accum. credits Cert. from 2 yr Grad. 2-yr Grad. 4-yr
GEDs 0.38 18.7 0.02 0.01 lt0.01
All HS grads 0.70 54.7 0.02 0.05 0.20
At-risk HS grads 0.54 30.0 0.03 0.02 0.05
Late HS grads 0.31 10.4 0.02 0.01 lt0.01