Title: Semiconductors
1Semiconductors
- Presented by Aman Bansi
- Mark Thomlinson
- Barnard Choi
2Agenda
- Industry overview
- Intel
- AMD
- Applied Materials
3A Brief History
- Pre-1950s - Vacuum tubes
- 1945 - ENIAC is developed for military
application in WWII - 1947 - Bell Telephone Laboratories develops the
transistor - 1959 - Texas Instruments and Fairchild
semiconductor separately develop the integrated
circuit - 1965 Moores Law
- 1968 Intel founded
- 1970-72 Intel introduces the 4004, and 8008
processors
4Terminology
- Semiconductor
- -A material with an electrical conductivity
between that of an insulator and a conductor - Behaves as an insulator at very low temperature,
and conducts electricity at room temperature - -Silicon, germanium, and gallium arsenide
- Integrated Circuit
- -A thin chip consisting of at least two
interconnected semiconductor devices
5Terminology
- Transistor
- -Semiconductor device which can be used for
amplification, switching, voltage stabilization - Wafer
- -A thin (1-3mm) slice of a semiconductor ingot
- -The surface on which ICs are manufactured
6Business Models
- Foundry
- -Manufacturing
- -Taiwan Semiconductor
- Fabless
- -Development and Marketing
- -NEC, hundreds of other firms
- Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM)
- -Development, Manufacturing, Marketing
- -Intel, AMD
7Moores Law
- Moores Law states, Number of transistors on
chip doubles about every two years this has made
reality by Intel
8Use of Semiconductors
9Semiconductor Industry Profile
- U.S. 2003 Sales 80 Billion
- Worldwide 2003 Sales 165 Billion
- of Sales outside U.S.
- Market 73
- Capital Equipment10
- Billion, 14 of sales 14
- R D Investment14
- Billion, 17 of sales 17
10Global Shipments
11Sales by Region
12Global Sales
13Integrated Circuit Production
14Capacity by Wafer Size
15Fabrication process
16Film Desposition
- Layer of insulating or conducting film is
deposited or grown on a wafer - Four main types of deposition
- Atomic Layer Desposition (ALD)
- Chemical Vapour Desposition (CVD)
- Physical Vapour Desposition (PVD)
- Electro Chemical Plating (ECP)
17Photolithography
- Photolithography
- Etch
- Ion Implantation
- Rapid Thermal Processing
18Photolithography
- A layer of light sensitive photo resist is
applied to the previously deposited layer - A mask (pattern) is placed on top of the photo
resist - Ultraviolet light is flashed through the mask,
dissolving the exposed photo resist
19Etch
- Process to selectively remove material from the
surface of a wafer - The original film which was under the photo
resist is then dissolved by microscopic droplets
of chemical - This process leaves the circuits pattern on the
wafer
20Ion Implantation
- Silicon wafers are bombarded by a beam of ions
that penetrate (implant) the film surface to a
desired depth - Used during transistor fabrication to change
electrical properties of a material - Important for enabling the fabrication of smaller
structures with faster transistor performance - Systems to perform 45 and 65 nm implantation
21Rapid Thermal Processing
- Rapid bursts of intense heat
- Room temperature to more than 1,000 degrees
Celsius in seconds - Used for modifying the properties of the
implanted ions
22Chemical Mechanical Polishing
- Removes material from a wafer to create a flat
surface - This process allows subsequent photolithography
patterning steps to occur with greater accuracy - Enables film layers to build with minimal height
variations.
23Metrology and Wafer Inspection
- Scanning Electron Microscopes
- Imaging of critical dimensions
- Determination of defects source
- High speed, laser-based technology
24Regulatory Environment
- The U.S. government regulates exports and certain
uses of some types of semiconductors due to their
potential use in military applications - Intellectual property laws mainly in the area of
patents - Environmental management has become an important
factor in the production and delivery of
semiconductor components to end users - -reduce emission of PFC's
25Semiconductor Trends
- Cost-per-function of ICs will drop long after
Moores Law is obsolete, due to various future
design and fabrication innovations - As Moore's Law assumptions become less valid,
something will have to change - Future area of cost reduction may be
verification, a major source of bottle neck in IC
production - The methods for achieving higher quality and
lower costs will change
26Trends (cont.)
- Innovative assembly and packaging of
multiple-chip modules - Power-aware design rules
- Design-for-manufacturing (DFM) improvements
- Lithography-friendly tools to enable designers to
analyze the effects of manufacturing variability - The integration of physical verification and test
to enhance debugging and improve yields. - A learning curve that will tell us what needs to
happen beyond just shrinking the design rules
27Growth segments
- High growth application areas for automotive
semiconductors - Safety features (airbags, cruise control,
collision avoidance) - Cockpit electronics (phones, entertainment)
- Consumer Electronics
- accounts for 50 of the total sales of
semiconductors - digital cameras, camcorders, DVD players and CD
players - Digital televisions and wireless communication
equipment with wideband data capability
28Presented byAman Bansi
29Agenda
- A Brief history
- Underlying Business
- Management
- Fundamentals
- Financial Analysis
- Quarterly Update
- Financial Ratios
- Value Drivers
- Fisher
- Recommendation
30Corporate Mission, Values, Objectives
- Our Mission
- -Do a great job for our customers, employees,
and stockholders by being the preeminent building
block supplier to the worldwide digital economy - Our Values
- -Customer Results orientation, risk taking,
great place to work, quality, discipline - Our Objectives
- -Extend silicon leadership and manufacturing
capability, deliver architectural innovation for
platforms pursue worldwide opportunities
31A Brief History
- Founded in 1968 by Bob Noyce Gordon Moore to
build semiconductor memory products - 1970-1980
- -Introduction of the first microprocessor and
initial public offering - -Microprocessor 8080 introduced, 10 times faster
then previous microprocessors used in the first
personal computers - -Intel wins the IBM PC account
- 1980-1990
- -Intel 386 processor launched, 275k transistors
- -Intel enters flash memory business
- -Reincorporated in Delaware
32Brief History Continued
- 1990-2000
- -Bob Noyce passed away of heart attack
- -Intel becomes household name logo begins
appearing on PCs world wide - -Becomes largest semiconductor supplier in the
world - -Introduces Pentium processor, 3.1million
transistors - -Intel chips power 85 of all desktops
- -Intel celeron processor introduced
- 2000-Present
- -Pentium 4 processor introduced, 42-mill.
Transistors - -hyper threading technology is introduced
- -introduced Intel centrino mobile technology
33Business Segments and Products
- Intel Architecture Business
- -Microprocessors
- -Chipsets
- -Motherboard Products
34Business Segments and Products Continued
- Intel Communications Group
- -Flash Memory
- -Application Processors Components for
Handheld Computing Communication Devices - -Wired Wireless Connectivity Products
- -Networked Storage
35New Business Segments
- Mobility Group
- Digital Enterprise Group
- Digital Home Group
- Digital Health Group
- Channel Platforms Group
36Customers
- Original Equipment Manufactures (OEMs) Original
Design Manufactures (ODMs) - PC and Network Communication product users
- Other Manufacturers
-
37Intel Architecture Business Competitors
- AMD
- IBM
- Hewlett-Packard Company
- Sun Microsystems
- ATI technologies
- Silicon Integrated Systems Corporation (SIS)
38Intel Communications Group Competitors
- QUALCOMM
- Samsung Electronics Company LTD
- Spansion LLC (subsidiary of AMD)
- Texas Instruments INC
- Applied Micro Circuits
- Atheros Communications
39Future Growth
- Using Core Strengths for Worldwide Growth
- Manufacturing Technology
- Architecture Platforms
- Ecosystem Development
- -Intel Capital
- Global Presence
- Our Brand
- Corporate Excellence
40Management
- Craig Barrett, chairman of the Board since May
2005 - -Previously CEO (1998-2005)
- Paul Otellini, (CEO) since May 2005
- -Previously served as COO President
(2002-2005)
41Management Continued
- Andy D. Bryant, Chief Financial Enterprise
Services Officer - -Previously CFO (1994-1999)
- Sean Maloney, Executive VP General manager,
Mobility Group - -Previously senior vice president (1999-2001)
42Executive Compensation
43Executive Options
44Fundamental
- Trade Date 10-18-05
- TICKER INTC
- Recent Price 25.30
- EPS 1.33
- P-E Ratio 18
- Dividend Yield 1.59
- Annual Dividend .40
- Beta (5-Year) 2.08
- Share Related
- Market Cap (millions) 151509
- Shares Outstanding (millions) 6029
45One Year Stock Performance
46Five Year Stock Performance
4720 Year Stock Performance
48INTC vs. SOX
49Financial Analysis
50(No Transcript)
51(No Transcript)
52(No Transcript)
53(No Transcript)
54(No Transcript)
55(No Transcript)
56(No Transcript)
57(No Transcript)
58(No Transcript)
59(No Transcript)
60(No Transcript)
61(No Transcript)
62Where the Revenue Comes From
63Selected Financial Data
64Revenue and Gross Margin
65Geographic Breakdown
66Revenue Composition
67Research and Development
68Dividend Summary
69Stock buybacks 2005
Quarter Shares Purchase (mil) Cum. Shares Purchase (mil) Millions Cumulative millions
Q3 93.6 2486.9 2500 49285.7
Q2 98.9 2393.3 2500 46785.7
Q1 107.9 2294.40 2500 44285.7
70Stock Buybacks 2004
Quarter Shares Purchase (mil) Cum. Shares Purchase (mil) Millions Cumulative millions
Q4 89 2186.50 2000 41785.70
Q3 106.3 2097.50 2500 39785.70
Q2 56 1991.20 1511 37285.7
Q1 49.2 1935.20 1505 35774.70
71Stock Buyback Announcement 2005
- 25 increase in quarterly dividend payout
starting in first quarter of 2006 - Board authorized up to 25 billion in shares of
common stock repurchase
72Quarterly Update
73(No Transcript)
74(No Transcript)
75(No Transcript)
76(No Transcript)
77Revenue Composition up to Q3 2005
78Financial Ratios
79Ratios
- Price to Earnings 18
- Return on Equity 19
- Gross Profit margin 57
- Net Profit Margin 21
80Value Drivers
- Leader world wide in Research and Development
- Cost effective in developing its products
- 18 years of profitability
- Global brand strength
- Unparalleled Industry Commitment
81Fishers Four Dimensions Analysis
- Superiority in production,marketing, research
financial skills - -Intel is a low cost producer making them have
competitive advantage in the market - - very good cash position
- -Successful R D in place around the world
- The People Factor
- -Intel has strong people that have been with the
company for a long time - -Executive team is not looking to be a leader
today but for decades to come - -training programs to help employees develop
82Fishers Four Dimensions Analysis Contd
- Investment Characteristics of businesses
- -Intel operates quite efficiently that it
creates barriers to entry - -fragmented competition
- the price of the investment
- -P/E low
- -seems like there is room to grow in the
industry
83Recommendation
- Company proven in the market to be a leader
- Good financial results
- Strong management
- Future growth promising worldwide
- BUY and HOLD
84AMD
- Advanced Micro Devices
- By Barnard Ki Seong Choi
85History
- Founded in 1969 by Jerry Sanders with 100,000
capital - Engineer and former worldwide marketing director
at Fairchild Semiconductor - Goes public in September 1972
86Executives
- Hector de J. Ruiz, Ph.D.Chairman of the Board,
President and Chief Executive Officer - Dr. Bertrand CambouExecutive Vice President and
President and CEO, Spansion - Dirk Meyer President COO, Microprocessor
Solutions Sector - Iain MorrisSenior Vice President, Personal
Connectivity Solutions Group - Bob RivetExecutive Vice President and Chief
Financial Officer - The president, top executives in charge of AMDs
product lines, and the CFO are all outsiders (a
negative sign according to Fishers people
factors). -
87Products
- Three product/service categories
- Processors
- Control and computing tasks
- Flash Memory
- Store data and programming instructions
- Connectivity Solutions
- Embedded microprocessors for personal
connectivity devices and specific consumer markets
88AMD Market Share
89AMD Market Share (cont.)
- Dell is now offering 6 Athlon 64 chips on its
website - Dell is the last PC maker in the US to
exclusively use Intel processors - October, AMD surpasses Intel in U.S. retail
stores (excludes sales made by direct sellers) - 49.8 percent of PCs sold in domestic (US) stores
for the month, compared with Intel's 48.5 percent
of the market
90Firm Strategy
- Leverage the strength of AMD64 technology-based
processors to increase its share of the market,
especially in the enterprise segment - Provide customer-driven solutions to high growth
markets through strategic partnerships and the
50x15 Initiative (Goal to deliver Internet
connectivity to 50 of the worlds population by
2015). - PIC (Personal Internet Communicator)
91Regulatory Environment
- Intellectual Property and Licensing
- As of December 26, 2004, more than 6,500 U.S.
patents and over 2,000 patent applications
pending in the U.S. - Patent cross-license agreement with Intel , under
which AMD pays Intel a royalty for certain
licensed microprocessor products sold by AMD and
its affiliates (ends in 2010) - Environmental Regulation
92Stock Chart
93Stock Chart (cont.)
94Most Recent Information (As of Friday, November
18, 2005)
Last Trade 26.74 Day's Range 26.25 - 26.95
Trade Time Nov-18 52wk Range 14.08 - 26.53
Prev Close 25.89 Volume 16,000,100
Open 26.25 Avg Vol (3m) 10,220,400
1y Target Est 24.39 Market Cap 10.80B
P/E (ttm) 393.24
EPS (ttm) 0.07
Div Yield N/A (N/A)
95Sales Segmentation
96Sales Segmentation (cont.)
Product Lines Sales Operating Income
Processors 2527.7 303
Memory 2342.5 35
Connectivity 131.22 -72
Other 0 -44
(millions of dollars)
97Balance Sheet
- Price/Book (mrq)3.35
- Total Cash (mrq)1.34B
- Total Cash Per Share (mrq)3.322
- Total Debt (mrq)2.01B
- Total Debt/Equity (mrq)0.676
- Current Ratio (mrq)1.565
-
98Income Statement
99Cash Flow Statement
- PERIOD ENDING 26-Dec-04
28-Dec-03 29-Dec-02 - Operating cash flow
1,086,521 295,586 (88,910) - Financing cash flow
_ (74,447) 75,727 - Investing cash flow
(1,555,784) 83,183 (854,389)
100Executive Options Outstanding (End of 2004)
Exercise price of shares (000s) Weighted Average Years Remaining
0.01 9.56 14609 5.41
9.57 14.64 15842 7.21
14.65 15.5 14653 6.5
15.55 45.5 8580 6.03
0.01 45.5 53684 6.34
101Value Drivers
- RD / speed of innovation
- The ability to adjust to post-Moores Law era and
to continue the innovation process will be key
to determining company value
102Valuation
- AMD has negative FCFE
- No dividend payout
- P/E ratio 393 (current)
- Share price has increased nearly nine times since
its low in late 2002
103Recommendation
- SELL
- Stock chart shows that the stock is at a 4 year
high - Share price has increased 8 times from its 2002
lows - Uncertainty in the world after Moores Law
- AMD has very low profitability
- Intel is a formidable competitor
- Low industry growth forecast
- Top Management is mostly composed of outsiders
104APPLIED MATERIALS
- Presented by Marc Tomlinson
105Current Stock Information
- Symbol AMAT
- Exchange NASDAQ
- 52 Week Range 14.33 18.60
- Current Price 17.14
- Shares Outstanding 1.62 B
- Market Capitalization 27.81B
- Average Daily Volume 20.8M
- Dividend Yield .12 (.7)
- Dividend Date December 8, 2005
106Profile
- Largest supplier of machines and services to the
semiconductor industry - Dedicated to innovation to bring manufacturing
technology to customer who manufacture the
worlds most advanced chips - 13,000 employees in 65 offices throughout the
world - The company that makes the systems that make the
chips that change the world
107Corporate Mission and Goal
- Mission Statement
- To be the leading supplier of semiconductor
fabrication solutions worldwidethrough
innovation and enhancement of customer
productivity with systems and service solutions - Goal
- Our customers' business results come first
108Key Executives
- James C. Morgan
- Chairman
- Company Service
- Chairman of the Board of Directors since 1987
- CEO from 1977 to April 2003.
- President from 1976 to 1987
- Michael R. Splinter
- President, CEO and Director
- Company Service
- President and CEO Since April 30, 2003
- Prior Service
- 20 years with Intel
- Executive Vice President and Director of Sales
and Marketing - General Manager of Technology and Manufacturing
109Key Executives
- Nancy H. Handel
- Group Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
- Company Service
- Joined the company in 1985
- Group VP and CFO since 2004.
- Group VP, Deputy CFO and Controller since 2000
- Franz Janker
- Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing
- Company Service
- Joined the company in 1982
- Senior VP of Sales and Marketing since May 2003
- Senior VP of Global Operations and Corporate
Marketing in 2002
110A Brief History
- 1967
- Applied is founded by Michael McNeilly
- 1972
- Initial public offering
- 1977
- James Morgan becomes CEO
111A Brief History
- 1979-1991
- Expansion throughout Asia
- 1992
- Applied becomes the worlds largest equipment
manufacturer - 1997-2004
- 12 acquisitions solidify position and expand
product offerings
112One Year Stock Performance
113AMAT vs. SOX and SP
114Five Year Stock Performance
115AMAT vs. SOX and SP
11620 Year Stock Performance
117AMAT vs. SOX and SP
118Platform Portfolio
119Platform Portfolio
120Process Portfolio
- Film desposition
- Photolithography
- Photolithography
- Etching
- Ion Implantation
- Rapid Thermal Processing
- Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP)
- Metrology and Wafer Inspection
- Mask Making
- Flat Panel Displays
- Factory Software
121Factory Software
- FAB300
- MES designed specifically for 300mm wafer
facilities - Provides superior tool automation and
factory-wide process automation - Applied WorkStream
- Provides real-time information and proven factory
control
122Flat Panel Displays
- Produced by Applieds subsidiary AKT
- Similar manufacturing process for semiconductors
- Difference is the size of the display
- Systems for substrates
- of up to 2.2 meters
123Key Customers
- Texas Instruments
- Intel
- IBM
- Motorola (Freescale)
- AMD
- Taiwan semiconductor
- Samsung
- LG Philips
- Sharp
- Toshiba
- Note No single customer accounts for more
- than 10 of Applieds revenue
124Major Competitors
- Largest competitors
- 44 smaller, niche market firms
- Market Cap of 3.6M to 1.9B
Company Ticker Mkt Cap Sales GM (M) RD (M) FCF (Est) ROE P/E P / BV
Tokyo Electron 8035JP 9.6 B 5.0 B 1,380 N/A 950 18.6 13.3 3.4
Tencor KLAC 9.8 B 2.1 B 1,220 340 350 14.6 23.5 3.1
LAM LRCX 5.1 B 1.5 B 764 194 366 26.3 20.7 4.5
Novellus NVLS 3.3 B 1.4 B 665 252 -154 6.7 26.4 1.7
Teradyne TER 2.7 B 1.8 B 723 262 -38 -12.0 N/A 2.6
125Tokyo Electron
- Second largest equipment supplier
- Mirrors Applieds product line
- Including flat panel displays
- Distributes other companys products in Japan
- Including chips, boards, and software
- Countries Japan, USA, Korea, Taiwan, UK
126Tencor
- Product Focus
- Yield management systems
- CMP
- Etch
- Films
- Lithography
127LAM Research
- Product Focus
- Etch
- Cleaning systems
- 72 of sales are from Asia
128Novellus
- Product Focus
- Deposition
- Physical vapor deposition (PVD)
- Electrochemical deposition (ECD)
- Interconnect
- process
129Teradyne
- Product Focus
- Automatic test equipment
- Industries
- Broadband Internet and VOIP
- Military and Aerospace
- Semiconductors
- Automotive
130Competitor Summary
- Applied is the dominant, complete process
supplier - Strong competition from niche suppliers
- Yield management (Tencor)
- Desposition (Novellus)
- Etching (LAM)
- Regional competition in Asia
- Tokyo Electron, LAM Research
- Competition from Teradyne in growth segments
- Automotive, Internet
131Annual Financial Statement Analysis
- Compensation and Options
- Income Statement
- Balance Sheet
- Cash Flow Statement
132Executive Compensation
Type of Compensation Type of Compensation Type of Compensation Type of Compensation Type of Compensation Type of Compensation
Annual Long Term Long Term Other
Year Salary Bonus Stock Awards Options
James C. Morgan 2004 445,000 0 0 0 9,225
Chairman 2003 684,615 0 0 600,000 9,000
2002 854,058 0 0 400,000 9,000
Michael R. Splinter 2004 900,000 5,000,000 0 1,100,000 47,846
President and CEO 2003 443,077 0 4,125,000 1,200,000 2,077
Franz Janker 2004 433,127 1,097,717 0 340,000 9,225
Executive VP, Sales and Marketing 2003 419,799 50,000 0 295,000 9,000
2002 332,508 90,000 0 0 9,000
Nancy H. Handel 2004 324,106 596,030 0 210,000 9,225
Senior VP and CFO 2003 304,161 54,774 0 100,000 9,000
2002 296,993 0 0 0 8,500
Joseph R. Bronson 2004 550,000 0 0 405,000 9,225
Former Executive VP and CFO 2003 550,000 0 0 360,000 9,000
2002 516,347 0 0 240,000 9,000
133Options Exercised and Granted
Name Shares Acquired Realized Value Number of Securities Underlying Unexercised Options Number of Securities Underlying Unexercised Options Value of In-the-Money Options Value of In-the-Money Options
Exercisable Unexerciseable Exercisable Unexerciseable
James Morgan 960,000 15,870,784 1,920,000 1,400,000 288,000 718,000
Michael Splinter 0 0 300,000 2,000,000 114,000 342,000
Franz Janker 108,000 1,501,319 430,000 775,000 905,218 400,750
Nancy Handel 60,000 763,770 371,000 425,000 581,796 36,050
Joseph Bronson 225,000 1,980,813 1,000,000 0 72,000 0
Value at Expiration Assuming Annual Rates of Stock Appreciation Value at Expiration Assuming Annual Rates of Stock Appreciation
Employee Number of Options of Total Granted Exercise Price Expiration Date 5 10
James Morgan 0 N/A N/A N/A 0 0
Michael Splinter 1,100,000 2.97 22.45 12/08/2010 10,053,340 23,428,570
Franz Janker 340,000 0.92 23.74 11/17/10 3,285,964 7,657,650
Nancy Handel 210,000 0.57 23.74 11/17/10 2,029,566 4,729,725
Joseph Bronson 405,000 1.09 22.45 12/08/2010 N/A N/A
134Outstanding Options
135(No Transcript)
136Income Statement Highlights
137New Orders, Sales, GP, Net Income
138Regional Sales Growth
1392004 Regional Sales
140RD as a Percent of Sales
141(No Transcript)
142Balance Sheet Highlights
143(No Transcript)
144Cash Flow Statement Highlights
145 Key Ratios
14610-Q Analysis
- Income Statement
- Balance Sheet
- Statement of Cash Flows
147(No Transcript)
148(No Transcript)
149(No Transcript)
150Value Drivers
- High RD investment
- Derived demand
- Full systems supplier
- Economies of scale
- Geographic reach
151Valuation
- Inputs
- K rf BE (rp) 17.8
- Where
- rf 4 , BE 2.3 , rp 6
- g 12
- FCF 1,465
- Number of Shares 1.62B
- P0 (1,465 B)(1 g) / (.178 - .12) / 1.62 B
- 17.46
152Fishers Opinion
- Superiority in production, marketing, research,
and financial skills - Strong cash position, low debt
- Track record of innovation
- Global sales force
- The people factor
- Many veterans, with some new faces
153Fishers Opinion
- Investment characteristics
- Barriers to entry
- Strong niche competitors
- Competition is fragmented overall
- Diversified customer base
- Price
- Fairly valued
154Recommendation
- Pros
- Industry leader
- Solid financial position
- Innovative
- In general, long term management
- Cons
- Excessive management compensation
- Applieds size may limit future, abnormal growth
- Anti trust laws
- Internal growth
- Sales driven by highly cyclical demand