A brief look at some major global changes

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A brief look at some major global changes

• John Birchall

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Order of Talk

• Changes in US Foreign Policy
• Changes in UK Foreign Policy
• The rising stars China, India, BRIC countries
• What are the apparent geo-political priorities?
• The EU and its expansion
• Globalisation and Free Trade some thoughts
• Questions and Answers

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The changes in US foreign Policy -1

• 15 new positions created at US Embassy in China
• 12 new position at US Embassy in India
• 5 at US Embassy in Jakarta
• Overall 74 new posts, of which over three
  quarters were in developing economies
• Going to fund these are 61 positions of which 10
  are in Russia, 7 in Germany, 2 0r 3 in Belgium,
  Poland, Italy, Spain, Japan and perhaps
  surprisingly Brazil
• BRIC countries?

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Changes in US foreign policy - 2

• In his recent trip to Asia President Bush called
  at Afghanistan reassurance.
• Then India, the fast rising economic powerhouse
  and seen by west as counterbalance to China.
• Then Pakistan, like India a nuclear power and
  whose volatile regions provide cover of al-Qaida
  training and possibly Bin Laden

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US Foreign Policy - 3

• US changing its focus. US diplomats have been
  killed in Karachi etc and attempts elsewhere
• Reaction to spread/influence of Islamic
  fundamentalism.
• These changes are also posing threats to Europe
  and so policies are changing
• The role of NATO and EU in European defence?

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UK Foreign Policy Changes - 1

• the world is more complex and circumstances are
  changing Michael Jay, Head of FO March 2006.
• Shifting resources from Europe to Asia
• 153 Embassies and high commissions 10 missions
  to UN etc and 70 Consulates
• Priorities counter-terrorism, combating illegal
  immigration, drug-trafficking and other
  international crime, conflict resolution

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UK Foreign Policy Changes - 2

• Continued maintain interests in Europe,
  sustainable development and UK security
• Closing 9 Embassies and High Commissions,
  Vanuatu, Tonga, Kiribati, Lesotho, Swaziland and
  Madagascar.
• New establishments include Baghdad, Kabul and
  North Korea and recruitment has concentrated on
  counter-terrorism and drug-trafficking
• Embassy protection costs have doubled to 4.8m in
  2004-05.

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Other EU States changes in foreign policy

• Germany post re-unification 35 new embassies
  and consulates. New presence in North Africa
  (energy), Middle East (energy) and countries such
  as Indonesia, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Engaging
  with Islam (large population in Germany and Mrs.
  Merkle has said nothing on Turkish Accession to
  EU 2015?
• France already has large presence in Middle
  East (history), increased security and staff
  working on terrorism and may share some
  facilities with Germany
• What of EU diplomatic missions and Constitution
  has role for EU Foreign Minister and seat on
  Permanent Members of Security Council

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Is it all west to east?

• China busy in Africa, Latin America and Far
  East. Needs ALL major industrial imports,
  especially energy.
• Maintains an embassy in almost every country in
  the world and has 5000 officials working
  overseas.

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What are the priorities?

• How does China view the world?
• Look at its 61 Consular Offices and see where
  they are located largest number in US, then
  Japan and they dont always seem too close,
  Britain, Germany, France, Australia, Canada and
  South Africa.
• They spend a lot in Pakistan, which might be seen
  to counterbalance of US/India relations (new 44m
  port at Gwadar, Angola which has just received a
  billion dollar credit line to purchase Chinese
  goods

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The world through three different sets of eyes

• Washington
• FIRST RANK MISSIONS -Beijing as the most
  important long-term military and economic threat
  to US global influence. Watches Japan closely as
  it is industrial power and like China buys US
  debt. Also Berlin, London and Paris
• SECOND RANK UN, India (nuclear power and
  counterbalance to Islamabad), Ottawa close
  neighbour and important for trade (NAFTA),
  Brussels, Moscow, Tel Aviv, Rome, Seoul (growing
  in importance), Mexico City again NAFTA and
  security of southern borders, Islamabad.
• THIRD RANK Brasilia which is the dominant South
  American power and a BRIC country. May be a
  potential nuclear power. Cairo, friendly Arab
  power and gateway to canal and Red Sea, Amman
  which is another friend in Middle East, Riyadh
  and oil military bases, Abu Dhabi which is set
  to be larger energy exporter to US and EU

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World through different sets of eyes - 2

• Washington continued
• FOURTH RANK
• Bangkok, Bahrain, Pretoria
• London
• FIRST RANK US, UN, Brussels, Paris
• SECOND RANK Rome, Berlin, Beijing, Moscow, Delhi
• THIRD RANK Riyadh, Baghdad, Cairo, Pretoria
• Fourth rank Tel Aviv, Ottawa, Canberra

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World through different eyes

• Beijing
• FIRST RANK US, Tokyo
• SECOND RANK London, Berlin, Islamabad, North
  Korea, Moscow, South Korea, Paris, Rome
• THIRD RANK Riyadh, Tehran, Pretoria, New Delhi,
  Ottawa, Canberra, Argentina
• FOURTH RANK Angola, Zimbabwe (raw materials),
  Chile, Cambodia, Vietnam,

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Expansion of EU

• Treaty of Rome 1957 now 25, soon 27.
• Europe united, Single market, Single Currency.
• Regional Policy 75
• Budget 1.1 of Net National Income of member
  states
• Influence
• Major Aid contributor
• Could go to 30 - Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro,
  Serbia, Turkey and has special relations with
  Russia, parts of North Africa and Middle East

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Globalisation - 1

• everyone will gain
• Free trade greater liberator that aid
• Outsource, low wage to high income
• Low value goods made in developing countries,
  high value in developed
• Boost demand in developing economies and it will
  boost business in developed world
• Speed of change, internet, high intellect
  research and high end development going to
  Budapest, South Africa and India
• Stagnated wage rates in US, what will happen to
  middle grade workers in London, Paris etc?
• Educated global elite who can move easily around
  business centres?
• Look at some of the reasons why the French and
  Dutch rejected proposed EU Constitution

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Globalisation - 2

• Where will Africa fit into this? Look at its
  recent history
• How will Sierra Leone have to change to meet this
  fast changing, information driven age?
• What should be priorities of Sierra Leone?
• I can give you sites to visit to develop your
  interest in global issues.
• Thanks,
• John