With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues

1
COSMO Status Report 2006 2007Tiziana
Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

• With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues

2
Content

1. COSMO organization
2. Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
3. COSMO scientific activities

• Michael Baldauf, DWD
• "COSMO numerics and physics-dynamics coupling"
• DWD
• "Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting
  satellites in the COSMO model
• by nudging"
• Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM
• "Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the
  use of the Ensemble B matrices and other
  developments based on the 1DVar approach
• Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwiss
• The COSMO project Tackle deficiencies in
  quantitative precipitation
• forecasts'
• Chiara Marsigli, ARPA-SIM
• "EPS activities in COSMO"
• Adriano Raspanti, USAM/CNMCA
• "Verification Strategies in COSMO"

3
Changes in the COSMO management

• Steering Committee Members
• Mathias Rotach (the Chairman
• MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)
• Hans-Joachim Koppert
• DWD (Germany) 
• Massimo Ferri
• USAM (Italy)
• Ioannis Papageorgiou
• HNMS (Greece) 
• Ryszard Klejnowski
• IMGW (Poland) 
• Scientific Project Manager
• Tiziana Paccagnella
• ARPA-SIM (Italy)
• Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators
• Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD
• Numerical aspects / Jürgen Steppeler DWD
• Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss
• Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss

• Steering Committee Members
• Mathias Rotach (the Chairman
• MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)
• Hans-Joachim Koppert
• DWD (Germany) 
• Massimo Ferri
• USAM (Italy)
• Ioannis Papageorgiou
• HNMS (Greece) 
• Michal Ziemianski
• IMGW (Poland) 
• Scientific Project Manager
• Tiziana Paccagnella
• ARPA-SIM (Italy)
• Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators
• Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD
• Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD
• Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss
• Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss

4
Future Changes in the COSMO management

• Steering Committee Members
• Mathias Rotach (the Chairman
• MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)
• Hans-Joachim Koppert
• DWD (Germany) 
• Massimo Ferri
• USAM (Italy)
• Ioannis Papageorgiou
• HNMS (Greece) 
• Michal Ziemianski
• IMGW (Poland) 
• Scientific Project Manager
• Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM (Italy)
• Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators
• Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD
• Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD
• Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss
• Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss

• Steering Committee Members
• Mathias Rotach
• MeteoSwiss (Switzerland)
• Hans-Joachim Koppert the Chairman
• DWD (Germany) 
• Massimo Ferri
• USAM (Italy)
• Ioannis Papageorgiou
• HNMS (Greece) 
• Michal Ziemianski
• IMGW (Poland) 
• Victor Pescaru
• NMA (Romania)
• Scientific Project Manager
• Marco Arpagaus Meteoswiss )Switzerland
• Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators
• Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD
• Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD
• Physical aspects / tbd

5
New model name
The former Lokal Modell and its many associated
names (LM, aLMo, LAMI etc..) now
is/are COSMO-xy, wherexy is an (up to)
two-letter identification of the application of
the deterministic model is concerned (COSMO-K,
COSMO-E, COSMO-A2)
6
COSMO partners

• Members of COSMO are the following national
  meteorological services
• DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach,
  Germany
• HNMS Hellenic National Meteorological
  Service, Athens, Greece
• IMGW Institute for Meteorology and Water
  Management, Warsaw, Poland
• MeteoSwiss Meteo-Schweiz, Zurich, Switzerland
• USAM Ufficio Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia, Roma,
  Italy
• These regional and military services within the
  member states are also participating
• ARPA-SIM Servizio IdroMeteorologico di ARPA
  Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
• ARPA-Piemonte Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione
  Ambientale-Piemonte, Italy
• AWGeophys Amt für Wehrgeophysik,
  Traben-Trarbach, Germany
• CIRA Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali
  Italy
• NMA, the Romanian Meteorological Service, will be
  full member before the end of 2007
• Roshydromet, the Russian Hydromet Service has
  applied to join COSMO and is now applcant member

7
Model system overview (1)

• Dynamics
• Basic equations Non-hydrostatic, fully
  compressible primitive equations no scale
  approximations advection form subtraction of a
  stratified dry base state at rest.
• Prognostic variables Horizontal and vertical
  Cartesian wind components, temperature (or
  temperature perturbations), pressure
  perturbation, specific humidity, cloud water
  content. Options for additional prognostic
  variables cloud ice, turbulent kinetic energy,
  rain, snow and graupel content.
• Diagnostic variables Total air density,
  precipitation fluxes of rain, snow and graupel.
• Coordinates Rotated geographical coordinates
  (?,f) and a generalized terrain-following
  coordinate ?. Vertical coordinate system options
• Hybrid reference pressure based s-type coordinate
  (default)
• Hybrid version of the Gal-Chen coordinate
• Hybrid version of the SLEVE coordinate (Schaer et
  al. 2002)
• Z coordinate system almost available for testing
  (see the report by Juergen Steppeler)

8
Model system overview (2)

• Numerics
• Grid structure Arakawa C grid in the
  horizontal Lorenz vertical staggering
• Time integration Second order horizontal and
  vertical differencing Leapfrog (horizontally
  explicit, vertically implicit) time-split
  integration including extension proposed by
  Skamarock and Klemp 1992. Additional options for
• a two time-level Runge-Kutta split-explicit
  scheme (Wicker and Skamarock, 1998)
• a three time level 3-D semi-implicit scheme
  (Thomas et al., 2000)
• a two time level 3rd-order Runge-Kutta scheme
  (regular or TVD) with various options for
  high-order spatial discretization (Förstner and
  Doms, 2004, Wicker and Skamarock, 2002)
• Numerical smoothing 4th order linear horizontal
  diffusion with option for a monotonic version
  including an orographic limiter (Doms, 2001)
  Rayleigh-damping in upper layers quasi-3D
  divergence damping and off-centering in split
  steps.
• Lateral Boundaries 1-way nesting using the
  lateral boundary formulation according to Davies
  and Turner (1977). Options for
• boundary data defined on lateral frames only
• periodic boundary conditions
• Driving Models The GME from DWD, the IFS from
  ECMWF and LM itself.
• Thanks to the cooperation with INM, in the
  framework of the INM-SREPS and COSMO SREPS
  projects, ICs and BCs can now be extracted also
  from the NCEP and UK Met Office global models
  (see the report from Chiara Marsigli about the
  COSMO SREPS Project).

9
Model system overview (3)

• Physics
• Grid-scale Clouds and Precipitation Cloud water
  condensation /evaporation by saturation
  adjustment. Cloud Ice scheme HYDCI (Doms,2002).
  Further options
• prognostic treatment of rain and snow
  (Gassman,2002 Baldauf and Schulz, 2004, for the
  leapfrog integration scheme)
• a scheme including graupel content as prognostic
  variable
• the previous HYDOR scheme precipitation
  formation by a bulk parameterization including
  water vapour, cloud water, rain and snow (rain
  and snow treated diagnostically by assuming
  column equilibrium)
• a warm rain scheme following Kessler
• Subgrid-scale Clouds Subgrib-scale cloudiness
  based on relative humidity and height. A
  corresponding cloud water content is also
  interpreted.
• Moist Convection Mass-flux convection scheme
  (Tiedtke) with closure based on moisture
  convergence. Further options
• a modified closure based on CAPE within the
  Tiedtke scheme
• the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme
• Vertical Diffusion Diagnostic K-closure at
  hierarchy level 2 by default. Optional
• a new level 2.5 scheme with prognostic treatment
  of turbulent kinetic energy effects of
  subgrid-scale condensation and evaporation are
  included and the impact from subgrid-scale
  thermal circulations is taken into account.
• Surface Layer Constant flux layer
  parameterization based on the Louis (1979) scheme
  (default). Further options
• A new surface scheme including a
  laminar-turbulent roughness sub-layer

10
Model system overview (4)

• Soil Processes
• Two-layer soil model including snow and
  interception storage climate values are
  prescribed as lower boundary conditions
  Penman-Monteith plant transpitration. Further
  options
• a new multi-layer soil model including melting
  and freezing (Schrodin and Heise, 2002)
• Radiation d-two stream radiation scheme after
  Ritter and Geleyn (1992) for short and longwave
  fluxes full cloud-radiation feedback
• Initial Conditions
• Interpolated from the driving model.
• Nudging analysis scheme (see below).
• Diabatic or adiabatic digital filtering
  initialization (DFI) scheme (Lynch et al., 1997).
• Physiographical data Sets
• Mean orography derived from the GTOPO30 data
  set(30"x30") from USGS.
• Prevailing soil type from the DSM data set
  (5'x5')of FAO.
• Land fraction, vegetation cover, root depth and
  leaf area index from the CORINE data set.
• Roughness length derived from the GTOPO30 and
  CORINE data sets.

11
Model system overview (4)

• Data Assimilation for LM
• Method Nudging towards observations
• Implementation Continuous cycle
• Analyzed variables horizontal wind vector,
  potential temperature, relative humidity,
  'near-surface' pressure (i.e. at the lowest model
  level)
• Observations
• SYNOP, SHIP,DRIBU station pressure, wind
  (stations below 100m above msl) and humidity
• TEMP,PILOT wind,temperature all standard levels
  up to 300 hPa humidityall levels up to 300 hPa
  geopotential used for one near-surface pressure
  increment.
• AIRCRAFT all wind and temperature data
• WIND PROFILER all wind data (not included in
  blacklisted stations)
• Quality Control Comparison with the model fields
  from the assimilation run itself.
• A Latent Heat Nudging scheme is also implemented
• A nudging of temperature and humidity profile
  retrieved by satellite radiances by using a
  1-DVAR technique is also implemented for testing

12
COSMO model versions during the year

• COSMO-Model 3.21 (14.12.06)
• Preparations of Ensemble Mode
• Implementation of last changes for Runge-Kutta
  dynamical core
• Other minor changes
• COSMO-Model 3.22 (24.01.07)
• New Version of cloud microphysics (hydci_pp)
• Other minor changes
• COSMO-Model 3.23 (30.03.07)
• New treatment of lateral boundaries for moisture
  variables
• Introduced option to calculate volume- and
  surface integrals over arbitrary cuboid
• Other minor changes
• COSMO-Model 3.24 (26.04.07)
• New version of cloud microphysics here Graupel
  scheme
• Other minor changes

13
COSMO model versions during the year

• Now we have COSMO-Model Version 4.0
• Fully implemented all developments for high
  resolution (LMK-Project, work at other centers)
• Fully implemented all changes for running the
  model in climate mode (long simulations, updating
  external parameters, NetCDF,)

14
Interpolation INT2LM

• INT2LM 1.5 (05.07.07 Development Version)
• Implementation of the changes for high-resolution
  runs (LMK-Project)
• Started implementation of changes from the
  climate community (NetCDF, special interpolation
  procedures)
• Implemented possibility for interpolating
  additional variables (e.g. chemistry variables)
• INT2LM 1.6 (07.09.07 Development Version)
• (First) full implementation of all changes from
  the climate community

15
Other related developments
16
Other related developments
17
Other related developments
18
Other related developments
19
COSMO operational applications
More Info .National Posters
Germany COSMO-EU 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING
COSMO-DE 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-EU NUDGING
Switzerland COSMO -7 7 km BCs from IFS NUDGING
COSMO-2 2.2 km BCs fromCOSMO-7 NUDGING
Italy USAM COSMO-ME 7 km BCs from IFS 3D-PSAS
COSMO-IT 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-ME NUDGING
Italy ARPA-SIM COSMO -I7 7 km BCs from IFS NUDGING
COSMO-I2 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-I7 NUDGING
COSMO -bk 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING
Greece COSMO -GR 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING
Poland COSMO xx 14km - BCs from GME NUDGING
Romania COSMO xx 14km - BCs from GME NUDGING
20
COSMO-LEPSat ECMWF
More details in the presentations by C.Marsigli
21
COSMO Status Report 2003 2004Tiziana
Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR

• Structure and organization of COSMO
• Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
• Operational Applications of the LM
• COSMO scientific activities

22
The present scientific organizationof COSMO
SUPPORT ACTIVITIES WG6
SIR
1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA
LM_Z
COSMO Priority Projects
RK
UTCS
SREPS
INTERPRETATION
TACKLE DEFICIENCES IN QPF
COMMON VERIFICATION CONDITIONAL VERIFICATION
23
Special Project Support ActivitiesPL U.
Schaettler DWD
includes many of the activities of WG6
Implementation and Reference Version

• Source Code Administration
• Web Page Administration
• Contents Manager
• Web Master
• Documentations, Newsletter, Technical Report
• Documentation
• COSMO Newsletter
• Technical Reports

Still criticities related to the web page
administration due to limited human resources.
24

• Support Activities PL U. Schaettler DWD
• Retrievas for nudging
• 1dVar for satellite radiances P.L. R.
  Hess DWD
• SIR Sequential Importance Resampling filter
  PL C. Schraff DWD
• Further development of LM_Z P.L.J. Steppeler
  DWD
• Further development of the Runge Kutta method
  PL M. Baldauf DWD
• UTCS Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow
  Convection Scheme PL Dmitrii Mironov DWD
• Tackle deficiencies in precipitation forecasts
  PL M. Arpagaus MCH
• Development of Short range ensemble PL
  C.Marsigli ARPA_SIM
• Advanced Interpretation of LM output PL P.
  Eckert MCH

25
Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling
PL C. Schraff DWD
This project was formulated 2 years ago based on
the COSMO Long-term vision ? emphasis on
ensemble techniques (FC DA)
26
Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling
PL C. Schraff DWD
This project was formulated 2 years ago based on
the COSMO Long-term vision ? emphasis on
ensemble techniques (FC DA)

• As regarded DA for convective scale it was
  decided that
• In the future Ensemble DA should play a major
  role
• Nudging at moment robust and efficient, requires
  retrievals for use of indirect obs, no severe
  drawbacks (for short term) if we can make them
  available

27
Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling
PL C. Schraff DWD

• The SIR project take off has been delayed due to
  missing experienced resources.
• SAC/STC decision long-term strategy of COSMO
  for DA to be re-discussed
• (2 meetings with external experts, 5 Sept (P.J.
  van Leeuwen), 18 Sept (Chris Snyder))
• SIR project is being revised / replaced

28
New PP Km-scale Ensemble-based Data
Assimilation (KENDA)

• Aim Development a novel ensemble-based data
  assimilation system for the convective scale (or
  km-scale, i.e. 1 3 km model resolution)
• Set up a modular system / framework for ensemble
  DA. Modular means that others (universities ..)
  can use it.
• components of the system can be replaced by
  alternatives
• The system will be based on Local Ensemble
  Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF, Hunt et al.,
  2007)
• Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) filter
  (van Leeuwen, 2003) requires more basic research.
  This option should rely mainly on resources from
  co-operating universities and research
  institutions
• KENDA IS NOW UNDER DEFINITION

29
Some other issues related to Data Assimilation

• Latent Heat Nudging
• DWD COSMO-DE with LHN operational since April
  2007
• assessed benefit from revisions done in 2005 /
  2006 to cope with prognostic precip
• MetCH LHN real-time test suite for June
  Aug 07 with COSMO-2 using Swiss radar data
• verification in comparison to pre-opr. COSMO-2
  without LHN
• positive impact of LHN on surface parameters
  throughout forecast, particularly for 2-m
  temperature and cloudiness
• very clear positive impact on precipitation in
  some cases
• GPS tomography
• comprehensive monitoring (14 months) of
  quasi-operational tomography profiles (at CSCS)
  against Payerne radiosonde and COSMO fields done
• results tomographic refractivity profiles
  have rather large errors unless COSMO forecasts
  are included as background info
• start working on assimilating humidity profiles
  derived from tomography retrievals

30
scores with latest version of microphysics LHN
15 30 August , 00 and 12 UTC runs (32
forecasts)
threshold 0.1 mm / h
LHN noLHN
LHN noLHN
ETS
FBI
thr. 0.1 mm / h
threshold 0.1 mm / h
LHN noLHN
LHN noLHN
ETS
ETS
threshold 1.0 mm / h
threshold 5.0 mm / h
31
Priority Project 1dVar for satellite
radiancesPL R. Hess DWD

• Specific talks by
• DWD
• "Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting
  satellites in the COSMO model
• by nudging"
• Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM
• "Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the
  use of the Ensemble B matrices and other
  developments based on the 1DVar approach

32
Special Project LM_Z PL Ulrich Schaettler

• Talk by Michael Baldauf

33
Priority Project Further development of the
Runge Kutta method PL M.Baldauf DWD

• Talk by Michael Baldauf

34
Priority Project Towards Unified
Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL
D.Mironov DWD

• Implementation of Transport Equations for the
  Sub-Grid Scalar Variance, Coupling with
  Convection, Turbulence and Cloud Diagnostic
  Schemes
• Motivation
• There are many deficiencies of LM that are
  related to inadequate representation of
  boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection.
  Among them are
• prediction of stratiform clouds,
• triggering and diurnal cycle of deep convection,
• prediction of partial cloud cover and
  cloudiness-radiation interaction,
• to mention a few. These deficiencies manifest
  themselves in large forecast errors, first of
  all, of precipitation rate and timing and of 2m
  temperature. The proposed project is aimed at
  addressing the above issues in a unified
  turbulence-shallow convection framework.
• Goals
• To account for turbulence and shallow
  non-precipitating convection in a unified
  framework (hopefully, for LMK and similar models
  with mesh-size of 2-3 km this is a final
  solution, although convection-turbulence
  modelling with such a grid size is still terra
  incognita).
• To achieve a better coupling between boundary
  layer turbulence, convection and radiation (for
  LM and similar models with the mesh-size 7-10 km
  may require adaptation of the convection scheme).
  

35
Priority Project Towards Unified
Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL
D.Mironov DWD

• Delay due to lackness of available, trained
  resources.
• This project has been considered important for
  the application of the COSMO model at the quasi
  convective scale
• ?
• The projects is being reformulated including
  training of scientists with the required
  scientific background
• The COSMO members, through the STC, will provide
  the necessary human resources

36
Priority Project Towards Unified
Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL
D.Mironov DWD

• Tasks
• (i) Development, coding and testing against LES
  and observational data of a two-equation model of
  a temperature-stratified PBL comparison of
  two-equations (TKE TPE) and one-equation (TKE
  only) models
• (ii) Testing the existing sub-grid scale
  statistical cloud scheme in case that scheme is
  used by both the turbulence scheme and the
  radiation scheme of the COSMO model
• (iii) Comparison of the cloud condensate
  predicted by the sub-grid scale cloud schemes
  (statistical and relative-humidity) and by the
  grid-scale saturation adjustment procedure
• (iv) Testing modifications in the COSMO-model
  deep convection scheme (Tiedtke)

2007-2008

• Development, coding and testing against LES and
  observational data of a two-equation model of
  moist PBL with non-precipitating clouds (UTCS),
  comparison of two-equations (TKE TPE) and
  one-equation (TKE only) model July 2008 July
  2009
• Implementation of UTCS into the COSMO model
  February 2009 September2009
• Investigation of the interaction of UTCS with the
  radiation, grid-scale microphysics and deep
  convection schemes, slowing down deep convection
  scheme as needed January June 2010
• Testing UTCS within COSMO-model through numerical
  experiments, fine tuning UTCS parameters,
  evaluation of results September 2009 December
  2010

2008-2010
37
Priority Project Tackle deficiencies in
precipitation forecasts PL M. ArpagausDWD
38
COSMO Priority Project Tackle deficiencies in
quantitative precipitation forecasts
S. Dierer1, M. Arpagaus1, U. Damrath2, A.
Seifert2, J. Achimowicz8, E. Avgoustoglou7, M.
Baldauf2, R. Dumitrache9, V. Fragkouli7, F.
Grazzini3, P. Louka7, P. Mercogliano6, P.
Mezzasalma3, M. Milelli4, D. Mironov2, A.
Morgillo3, E. Oberto4, A. Parodi5, I.V. Pescaru9,
U. Pflüger2, A. Sanna4, F. Schubiger1, K.
Starosta8, M. S. Tesini3 1MeteoSwiss (CH), 2DWD
(D), 3ARPA-ER (IT), 4ARPA-P (IT), 5Uni Genova
(IT), 6CIRA-CMCC (IT), 7HNMS (GR), 8IMGW (PO),
9NMA (RO)

• COSMO General Meeting, 19 September 2007, Athens

39
Aim of PP QPF
Good quantitative precipitation forecast is a
challenging task also for the COSMO model

• The aim of PP QPF is improved knowledge about
• most suitable namelist settings or
• parts of the model that need to be reformulated
• to obtain a better QPF at 7 km horizontal grid
  size

The project has a focus on model deficiencies
not on errors from e.g. initial and large scale
conditions
40
Overview of PP QPF

• Task 1 Selection of test cases representative
  for typical QPF deficiencies of COSMO model
• Task 2 Definition of sensitivity studies
  
• Task 3 Run sensitivity studies and draw
  conclusions

41
List of test cases from all countries
DATE INSITUTION Overestimation ()/underestimation (-) Stratiform (strat)/convective(con)
06.12.2004 DWD strat warm sector
18.03.2005 DWD strat cold frontorography
03.05.2005 DWD Stratconv warm front
21.06.2005 DWD - conv cold front
02.02.2005 MeteoSwiss strat occluded frontorogr.
22.03.2005 MeteoSwiss strat warm front
12.07.2005 MeteoSwiss conv -
17.12.2005 MeteoSwiss strat orography
24.09.2004 ARPA-P - conv cold frontorography
10.04.2005 ARPA-ER strat occluded frontorogr.
17.08.2006 CIRA-CMCC - conv cold frontorography
09.09.2005 CIRA-CMCC - conv -
01.12.2005 NMA - strat cold front
03.12.2005 NMA - strat cold frontorography
17.12.2005 NMA - Stratconv cold front
15.09.2005 HNMS - conv -
23.11.2005 HNMS - Stratconv warm front
26.11.2005 HNMS - strat orography
03.05.2005 IMGW - strat cold front
04.05.2005 IMGW 0 strat cold front
09.06.2005 IMGW strat -
09.08.2005 IMGW strat -
23.06.2005 NMA stratconv cold front
02.07.2005 NMA strat cold front
12.07.2005 NMA - strat cold front
42
Forecast errors

• 10 cases of stratiform overestimation (8 from D,
  CH and PO)
• 4 cases of stratiform underestimation
• 3 cases of convective overestimation
• 7 cases of convective underestimation (6 from I
  and GR)

43
Sensitivity studies

• 1. Changes of initial conditions
• 2. Changes of numerical methods
• 3.1 Changes of microphysics
• 3.2 Changes of convection schemes
• 3.3 Changes of PBL schemes

44
Conclusions (still preliminary )

• COSMO Version 4.0 is a good step forward!
• Further improvements expected from Runge-Kutta.
• We should have a closer look at the (initial)
  humidity fields. Any improvements in data
  assimilation expected?
• Convection schemes are the next thing to look at.
• BUT Even combining all positive (i.e.
  precipitation reducing ) effects does only cure
  about half of the cases of (stratiform)
  overprediction (main aim of project at project
  start ).
• publication of results planned until end of the
  year

45
Priority Project Development of short range
ensemble (SREPS) PL C.Marsigli ARPA-SIM

• Talk by Chiara Marsigli

46
Priority Project Advanced interpretation of LM
outputs PL Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss

• The foreseen increase in resolution of the models
  will lead to a proliferation of grid points and
  probably also to an increase of the noise in the
  forecasts. The manifestations of the double
  penalty effect will increase for events not
  predicted exactly at the right place at the right
  time. Valuable information can however be found
  by composing a statistics on the neighbourhood of
  a verification point. Various ways to extract the
  best possible information out of high density
  precipitation fields have been proposed so far. I
  can be of deterministic nature (means,
  quantiles,) or totally probabilistic. Different
  fuzzy verification methods will be explored and
  compared in this project.

• Some results in the talk by Adriano Raspanti

47
Priority Project Conditional Verification PL
Adriano Raspanti USAM

• Talk by Adriano Raspanti

48
GM
GM
2007
2008
SUPPORT ACTIVITIES WG6
KENDA
SIR
?
LM_Z
QPF
COSMO Priority Projects
1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA
UTCS
SREPS
Due to projects which are going to finish, next
year we should be able to concentrate resources
on a really small numbers of Prio Progets
INTERPRETATION/ Verif. VHR
RK
VerSUS
49
Further Info (soon) atwww.cosmo-model.org
50
Thank You!