Levels

1
Levels Distribution of Migrants in out of
Scotland

• An overview of internal international migration

2
Overall Migration Trends
3
Policy Environment

• The Scottish Governments Economic Strategy,
  published in November 2007, identified population
  growth as a key contributor to and indicator of
  economic growth, and set a target to match
  average European (EU-15) population growth over
  the period from 2007 to 2017, supported by
  increased healthy life expectancy in Scotland
  over this period.
• Work is being taken forward to deliver this
  target, including consideration of how policy on
  attracting migrants (Fresh Talent) might
  contribute towards achievement of target.

4
Official Government Estimates

• There is no data collection in the UK that
  directly measures the number of migrants to or
  from Britain and its constituent countries.
• Official estimates of migration to Scotland are
  produced by the General Register Office of
  Scotland (GROS). These estimates used to inform
  official population estimates in Scotland.
• Estimates are of long-term migrants i.e. people
  who arrive or leave for more than 12 months.
• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produce
  similar statistics for England, Wales and the UK
  overall, the Northern Ireland Statistics and
  Research Agency (NISRA) produce them for Northern
  Ireland.

5
Internal Migration Estimates

• Internal (from elsewhere in the UK) migration
  estimates are based on the NHS Central Register
  (NHSCR).
• NHSCR contains counts of people who move from one
  health board (HB) to another.
• From this it is possible to estimate cross-border
  flows for example, the number of people who
  move from a Welsh HB to a Scottish HB in a year.
• Records are kept by GROS (Scotland), ONS (England
  Wales) and NISRA (Northern Ireland). Data is
  collected quarterly.

6
Internal Migration Estimates

• Moves are recorded at both ends for example,
  ONS record the number of people who leave England
  to go to Scotland and GROS record the number of
  people who arrive in Scotland from England.
• There are often discrepancies, so the convention
  is that everyone uses the count recorded by the
  receiving country.
• NHSCR is problematic because short-term migrants
  cannot be distinguished from long-term migrants.
• Migrants can be allocated directly to Health
  Board level using NHSCR data.

7
Scotland UK Migration Last Decade
8
Scotland UK Migration Last Decade
9
Rest of UK Migration to from Health Boards
10
International Migration Estimates

• Overall numbers of international migrants in and
  out of Scotland are collecting in the
  International Passenger Survey (IPS). This is a
  continuous survey conducted by ONS at the
  principal air, sea and Channel Tunnel routes
  between the UK and countries outside the British
  Isles.
• However, sample of IPS interviewees who indicate
  they are travelling to or from Scotland is very
  small and not large enough to obtain much
  detail from.
• The NHSCR contains data on migrants from abroad
  who register with the NHS at Health Board level.
  This data is used to apportion the IPS estimate
  amongst Scottish Health Boards.

11
International Migration Estimates

• The overall figure of international migration in
  and out of Scotland is adjusted to allow for
  asylum seekers (data supplied by the Home
  Office), visitor switchers and migrant switchers.
• Further adjustments are made for visitor
  switchers (people who intend to stay or leave for
  less than a year but end up staying / leaving for
  longer and migrants switchers (the opposite of
  visitor switchers).
• In 2007, ONS conducted a quality review of
  migration statistics and developed a method of
  using the Labour Force Survey to apportion
  international in-migrants across the UK. As a
  result, GROS have decided to adopt the ONS method
  from 2007 onwards.

12
International Migration
13
International Migration
14
International Migration Estimates

• Unfortunately migrants tend not to inform their
  GP when they move abroad, so the NHSCR only
  contains limited data on international
  out-migrants from Scotland.
• To distribute international out-migrants amongst
  Health Boards, GROS use an average of the
  distribution of out-migrants to elsewhere in the
  UK and the limited data available on
  international out-migrants.
• GROS are investigating ways of improving the
  internal distribution of international
  out-migrants, however there is little concrete
  data available.

15
International Migration to Health Boards
16
Distribution Below Health Board Level

• There are 14 Health Boards in Scotland. Scotland
  can be further divided amongst the 32 Local
  Authorities. The NHSCR only allows migrants to be
  distributed down to Health Board level. Further
  distribution to the Local Authorities within each
  Health Board is carried out using the Community
  Health Index (CHI).
• The CHI is an administrative dataset that
  contains the postcodes of patients registered in
  each Health Board. The postcodes are used to
  estimate what proportion of migrants to each
  Health Board move into each Local Authority. Each
  CHI extract is a snapshot in time.
• CHI estimates are controlled up to the NHSCR
  (inc. age sex).

17
Migration into Scotland
18
(No Transcript)
19
Migration - City of Edinburgh (by age)
20
Migration East Lothian (by age)
21
Migration Orkney (by age)
22
Migration North Lanarkshire (by age)
23
Further Sources of Data

• There are a variety of data sources that GROS
  also look at when analysing migration patterns.
• The Worker Registration Scheme
• National Insurance Number Registrations
• Mothers Place of Birth
• Electoral Register Data, Labour Force Survey,
  2001 Census Results, various miscellaneous
  collections.
• There is no data collection in the UK that
  directly measures the number of international
  migrants to or from Britain and its constituent
  countries. All data sources provide a piece of
  the picture but not the whole.

24
WRS NINO
25
Mothers Country of Birth
26
Summary

• Levels of migration very important to Scotland,
  as birth rates and death rates are roughly equal.
• Internal Migration is based on health records,
  international migration is based on the IPS.
• Distribution of migrants within Scotland is also
  based on health records.
• Very little reliable data is available for
  international out-migrants.
• In the past, GROS ONS have used different
  estimates of international migration.
• Whilst a range of data is available on migrants,
  there is no source that can provide a direct
  estimate of migrants entering and leaving
  Scotland.