The Importance of Science to Market Transformation

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The Importance of Science to Market Transformation

• How a remarkably small band of gifted scientists
• sound the alarm and motivate government and
  business
• to save the world for future generations
• Personal Perspectives Insights
• Stephen O. Andersen
• Climate Protection Partnerships Division

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Preview

• Science sounded the ozone alarm
• Citizens motivated governments to act
• Governments guided public corporate action
• Executives were ozone champions
• Partnerships transformed markets
• Strategies from Montreal for Kyoto
• Together we can protect the Earth

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Ozone Science Was More Than Science

• Genius scientists postulated theory of ozone
  depletion, predicted Earths future, and sounded
  the alarm--risking reputations
• Scientists all over the world perfected the
  theory, tested the hypothesis, and advanced the
  literature--keeping the flame alive
• Activist scientists debunked critics, engaged
  governments, and motivated politicians and the
  public
• Forensic atmospheric scientists found the
  Antarctic ozone hole, chemical fingerprints and
  smoking guns
• Science Assessment Panel Scientists entered the
  public arena, clearly and confidently, leaving
  policy makers with no doubt about what must be
  done

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Ozone Science

• Set the Stage Silent Spring, Supersonic
  Transport, Spaceship Earth
• Built the Foundation Johnston, Crutzen
• Sounded the Alarm Molina Rowland
• Called for Action Rowland, Molina NRDC
• Sustained Alert Tolba UNEP Unsung Heroes
• Ended Doubt Solomon, Anderson, Others
• Guided Action Albritton, Watson
• Re-Invigorated Paul Newmanand company

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Rewards of Excellent Science

• Jump-Started Diplomacy
• Motivated Business Response
• Uncompromised Ozone Protection
• Better for climate protection, health safety
• Chlorine-Equivalent ODP-Weighting
• Pragmatic pace and substance flexibility
• Renewed Annual Concern as Hole Opens
• Rapid Action with New Science

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US Benefits of Ozone Protection

• Skin Cancer
• Save 6.3 Million Lives Avoid 299 Million Cases
• Cataracts
• Avoid 27.5 Million Cases
• Suppression of the Human Immune System
• Mitigated but Not Quantified
• Damage to Crops Ecosystems
• Avoid 1 Reduced Yield per 1 Ozone Depletion
• Hope for Children that Life Will be Good

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Industry Military Leadership

• Montreal Controls Stimulated Cooperation
• Technical Assessment by Sector Experts
• The Power of Teams Motivated by Leadership
• Bottom-Up Inside-Out Regulation
• Industry, Military NASA Innovation
• Just 500 Champions Over 20 Years!
• 98 Phaseout
• Light at the End of the Tunnel

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Montreal Protocol Market Transformation

• 250 Sector Global Market Transformation
• Heroic Science, Precautionary Principal,
  Diplomacy
• Industry Guided Technology Enabled
• No-Compromise Chemical Replacement
• Comprehensive environmental assessment
• Improved energy efficiency
• Mitigated safety toxicity
• Products with lower ownership cost, increased
  employment
• 98 Ozone-Depleting Substance Phaseout in 20
  Years
• Inconspicuous to Customers Citizens
• Unappreciated Contribution to Climate Protection

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Military NASA Technology Saved the
Stratospheric Ozone Layer

• Aerospace Electronics Solvents
• Badge of quality, undisputed cleaning performance
• Halon Fire Protection
• In combat and space evacuation is not an option
• Submarine Ship Refrigeration and AC
• Reliability, toxicity, flammability
• Who can complain if NASA and DoD resolve their
  extraordinary ODS dependence and NATO writes to
  the United Nations endorsing a complete
  phaseout?
• Literally Rocket Science

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Ozone Recovery

• So Close
• Alternatives are Available for Most Uses
• Production is 98 Halted
• Atmospheric Chemical Levels are Declining
• Down-Sized Ozone Hole
• Yet So Far Away
• Recovery to 1990 Level 15-years Later Than Hoped
• Ozone Layer Not Healthy at 1990 Level
• Accelerated Recovery Avoids More Skin Cancer,
  Cataracts, Suppression of the Human Immune
  System, and Agriculture Ecosystem Damage

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Montreal Greenhouse Gases

• 20 of Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) Replaced
  by HFCs and PFCs Controlled by Kyoto (80
  Not-in-Kind Housekeeping)
• HFCs Replacing ODSs are Typically Lower GWP
• HFC-134a (100-yr GWP 1300) replaced CFC-12
  (100-yr GWP 8100)

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Montreal Emission Sources
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Technically/Economically Feasible Actions To
Further Protect Ozone Climate

• Recover and Destroy Ozone-Depleting Substances in
  Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Fire Protection
  and Foam Products
• Accelerate the Phaseout of HCFCs in Developed and
  Developing Countries
• Reduce and Eliminate Emissions from Uses Exempted
  from Montreal Protocol Controls

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CO2-Equivalent Halocarbon Bank Emissions
7.5 Gt/year near 1990 about 33 of that year's
global CO2 fossil fuel emissions 2.5 Gt/year
near 2000 about 10 of that years global CO2
fossil fuel emissions 1.2 Gt/year emission
reduction is feasible, 2005 to 2015 about 5 of
Kyoto 1990 baseline with co-benefits of advancing
ozone recovery by 5 to 10 years
INTERGOVERNMNENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE
CHANGE TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT PANEL
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Extraordinary Stratospheric Ozone Climate
Benefits

• Accelerate Ozone Recovery 4-6 Years!
• Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions 10 Each
  Year for 10 Years!
• Reward Suppliers of Alternative Technology!
• Reward Citizens with Environmentally Superior
  Technology that Uses Less Expensive Energy!
• Demonstrate How People and Technology Can Protect
  the Earth for Future Generations!

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Further Reading

• S. Andersen K.M. Sarma Protecting the Ozone
  Layer, The UN History
• http//shop.earthscan.co.uk/ProductDetails
• R. Benedick Ozone Diplomacy New Directions in
  Safeguarding the Planet
• http//www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/BENOZD.html
• S. Andersen D. Zaelke Industry Genius
  Inventions and People Protecting the Climate and
  Fragile Ozone Layer
• http//www.greenleaf-publishing.com/
• W.H. Lambright NASA and the Environment Ozone
  Depletion
• http//history.nasa.gov/monograph38.pdf
• B. Metz et al IPCC/TEAP Special Report (Ozone
  Climate)
• http//www.ipcc.ch/activity/specialrprt05/IPCC_low
  _en.pdf
• P. Canan N. Reichman Ozone Connections Expert
  Networks in Global Environmental Governance
• http//www.greenleaf-publishing.com/

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Industry Genius Inventions and People Protecting
the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer Stephen O.
Andersen Durwood Zaelke Forewords by
Astronaut Richard Truly UN Executive Jacqueline
Aloisi de Larderel