America

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Americas Climate Choices Highlights of a
National Academies Project and Personal
ThoughtsRobert SocolowPrinceton
Universitysocolow_at_princeton.eduForum on
Climate Change Science and Consequences
American Chemical Society National
MeetingBoston MAAugust 23, 2010
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Americas Climate Choices

• A congressional initiative in 2008 to
• investigate and study the serious and sweeping
  issues relating to global climate change and make
  recommendations regarding what steps must be
  taken and what strategies must be adopted in
  response to global climate change, including the
  science and technology challenges thereof.
• Products already A summit (March 2009) and four
  reports from panels.
• Product in progress A Final Report from the
  overarching Committee on Americas Climate
  Choices (of which I am a member).

Information at http//americasclimatechoices.org
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Four panel reports are out
Available at http//www.nap.edu
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Science Panel Sorry, its real.

• CONCLUSION 1 Climate change is occurring, is
  caused largely by human activities, and poses
  significant risks for a broad range of human and
  natural systems.

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Science Panel A new era of climate research

• The nation needs a comprehensive and integrative
  climate change science enterprise that not only
  contributes fundamental understanding but also
  informs and expands Americas climate choices.
• Scientists need to engage stakeholders/citizens
  in order to build trust, access local knowledge,
  and learn about priorities.
• The federal climate change research program
  should develop, deploy, and maintain a
  comprehensive observing system that supports all
  aspects of understanding and responding to
  climate change.

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Never in history has the work of so few led to so
much being asked of so many!
The few are the climate science researchers.
The many are the rest of us.
Understandably, we wish we lived on a larger
planet, with a larger atmosphere so that our
emissions would be less significant and also
a planet with larger fisheries, bigger forests,
more abundant ground water, so that all our
actions mattered less.
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Managing Risk

• Climate science today sends a difficult message
• Both mild and severe climate change is consistent
  with each future global atmospheric gas
  concentration. This frustrating lack of
  predictability has its roots in poorly understood
  feedbacks (notably regarding clouds, ice, and the
  biosphere).
• Climate science cannot now provide tight upper
  bounds on the probability of very bad outcomes.
  Climate change could be extremely disruptive
  well beyond what is conveyed in descriptions of
  mean expectations.
• Scientists are not on the verge of breakthroughs
  that will result in a significantly better
  predictability. We are not only flying blind, but
  the fog is not about to lift.

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A challenge to the educators of chemists
Needed Chemists who understand the planetary
scale the science and technology required to
achieve insight into fitting on the Earth rich
and poor people, rich and poor countries future
and present human domination vs.
accommodation ambiguity
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Limiting Panel Prompt, sustained efforts

• A robust U.S. response requires
• An inclusive national framework for aligning the
  goals and efforts of actors at all levels
• Aggressive pursuit of all major near-term
  emission reduction opportunities and RD to
  create new options
• Iterative management of policy responses

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Limiting Panel U.S. budget to 2050

• Representative budget 170200 Gt CO2-eq,
  20122050.
• Business-as-usual consumes this budget well
  before 2050.

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Limiting Panel Tough goals are real hard

• Meeting an emissions budget in the 170200 Gt
  CO2-eq range could be technically possible, but
  it is very difficult.
• Essentially all available options (e.g.
  efficiency, renewables, CCS, nuclear, biofuels)
  would need to be deployed at levels close to what
  is estimated as technically possible and these
  estimates are based on very optimistic
  assumptions.

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Limiting Panel Recommendations

• 1. Adopt a mechanism for setting an economy-wide
  price on carbon.
• 2. Complement the carbon price with policies to
• Realize the practical potential for energy
  efficiency and low-emission energy sources
• Establish the feasibility of carbon capture and
  storage and new nuclear technologies
• Accelerate the retirement, retrofitting or
  replacement of GHG emission-intensive
  infrastructure.
• 3. Create new technology choices by investing
  heavily in research and crafting policies to
  stimulate innovation.

first three of seven recommendations
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An idealization of mitigation
BAU Business As Usual CPM Constant-Pace
Mitigation
BAU
Today, approximately half of emissions are
retained in the atmosphere and half move to other
reservoirs.
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Procrastination and Pace
BAU Business As Usual CPM Constant-Pace
Mitigation
(1) Extra total emissions, because pace cannot be
increased,
OR (2) Constant total emissions, with a faster
pace.
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Every strategy can be implemented well or poorly
Every solution has a dark side.
Conservation Regimentation Renewables Compet
ing uses of land Clean coal Mining worker
and land impacts Nuclear power Nuclear
proliferation Geoengineering Technological
hegemony Risk Management Because mitigation and
adaptation are not risk-free, the lowest
conceivable greenhouse-concentration targets are
not optimal. The risks of disruption from
climate change must be traded against the risks
of disruption from solutions.
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Adapting Panel Go for iterative risk management

• There is a real risk that impacts could emerge
  rapidly and powerfully. Mobilizing now to
  increase the nations adaptive capacity can be
  viewed as an insurance policy against an
  uncertain future.
• Key sectors ecosystems, agriculture and
  forestry, water, health, transportation, energy,
  and coastal regions.

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Adapting Panel The short term can borrow from
climate variability
Example The Hot WeatherHealth Watch/Warning
System, Philadelpia, 1995 Whenever the National
Weather Service issues a heat wave warning, local
media are required to provide information on how
to avoid heat-related illnesses and how to help
elderly persons. Those involved include
Philadelphia Corporation for the Aging
Department of Public Health Local utility
company and water department (halt service
suspensions) Fire Department Emergency Medical
Service (increase staffing) Senior centers
(extend hours of operation of air-conditioned
facilities)
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Adapting panel The long term requires
transformational change

• Examples of transformational adaptations
• Movement of people and facilities away from
  vulnerable areas
• Changes in ecosystem and land management
  objectives
• Revisions of water-rights law
• Contingency planning for high-impact/low-probabili
  ty outcomes requires vigilant monitoring to
  detect early signals and continuous assessment of
  the adequacy of responses. Adaptation needs to be
  adaptable.

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What is a crisis?
Needed much more effort to describe vividly
What losing control of the planet looks
like. What taking charge of the planet looks
like. Is losing control of the planet mostly
about moving cities inland? About losing
ecosystems? Does taking charge of the planet
require a new level of planetary governance?
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Informing Panel Improved information systems

• Federal coordination of diverse decision-making
• Institutions that will produce improved tools

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Informing Panel All sorts of decisionmakers

• Climate response is and will always be
  decentralized.
• Federal roles include
• clear leadership
• regular evaluation and assessment
• aggregation and dissemination of best practices
• development and diffusion of decision-support
  tools
• training of researchers and practitioners.
• The federal government must avoid preemption that
  discourages productive decisions by other actors.

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Informing Panel Paths toward better
decision-support tools
The federal governments immense infrastructure
for data collection and analysis including
satellites, climate models, and in situ
monitoring systems can be enhanced via national
climate-service institutions. These institutions
can provide diverse users with high quality,
harmonized, accessible information at multiple
scales.
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The Planetary Perspective
The ACS needs to understand not only Americas
climate choices but also the worlds.
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Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005
World emissions 27 billion tons CO2
AVERAGE TODAY
STABILIZATION
Source IEA WEO 2007
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Four ways to emit 4 ton CO2/yr(todays global
per capita average)
Activity Amount producing 4 ton CO2/yr emissions
a) Drive 24,000 km/yr, 5 liters/100km (45 mpg)
b) Fly 24,000 km/yr
c) Heat home Natural gas, ample U.S. home, average climate
d) Lights 300 kWh/month when all coal-power (600 kWh/month, natural-gas-power)
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Stabilization 1 ton CO2/yr per capita
It is not sufficient to limit emissions in the
prosperous parts of the world and allow the less
fortunate to catch up. Such an outcome would
overwhelm the planet. The emissions of the
future rich must eventually equal the emissions
of todays poor, not the other way around.
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The developing world will decide what kind of
planet we live on.
For a while longer, the industrialized countries
will lead. But countries now industrializing
will dominate global environmental
problem-solving over this century.
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Prospicience
Prospicience The art and science of looking
ahead. In the past 50 years we have become
aware of the history of our Universe, our Earth,
and life. Can we achieve a comparable
understanding of human civilization at various
future times 50 years ahead vs. 500 years and
vs. 5000 years? We have scarcely begun to ask
What are we on Earth to do?
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Fitting on the Earth
Our planet, Earth, is the only one we have.
Fortunately Our science has discovered
threats fairly early We can identify a myriad
of helpful technologies We have a moral compass
that tells us to care not only about those alive
today but also about the collective future of our
species. What has seemed too hard becomes what
simply must be done.