MTA SEMINAR What

1
MTA SEMINARWhats Wrong With Turkeys Quest
for Nuclear Power!?MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP
MTA FellowBelfer Center for Science and
International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of
GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY

• BCSIA Library
• December 14, 2004

2
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Turkeys international standing
• Signed the NPT in January 1969 and ratified in
  April 1980
• Signed Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA
  (INFCIRC/295) in September 1981
• Ratified the Additional Protocol in July 2001
• Signed the CTBT August 1996 and ratified in
  February 2001
• Member of the Zangger Committee and the NSG
  since June 2000
• Member of the MTCR since April 1997
• Signed the BTWC in April 1972 and ratified in
  November 1974
• Signed the CWC in January 1993 and ratified in
  May 1997

3
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Some facts about Turkey
• Population 67 millions
• Population growth rate 2.1 per annum
• Population forecast 85 millions in
  2010 100 millions in 2020
• Total energy energy production 26
  million tons oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2003
• Total energy energy consumption 2003 84
  mtoe 2010 126 mtoe 2020 222 mtoe
• Total electricity consumption 150
  billion kilowatt hours (TWh) in 2004
• Increase in electricity consumption 7 per
  annum
• Distribution of energy sources 38
  oil 27 coal 23 gas 12 hydraulic

4
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Estimates of electricity consumption by various
  institutions
• MoE 2005 197 TWh 2010 294 TWh 2020 570
  TWh
• TEAS 2005 212 TWh 2010 290 TWh 2020 547
  TWh
• CEE 2005 171 TWh 2010 224 TWh 2020 310 TWh
  
• The consumption figure for 2004 which is 150 TWh
  suggests that, with a
• 7 increase per annum, the energy consumption in
  2005 should be around 160.5 TWh. This implies
  that for the year 2005 there is
• 18.6 deviation in the estimate of MoE
• 24.3 deviation in the estimate of TEAS
• 6.2 deviation in the estimate of the CEE

5
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Turkeys energy potential as of 2004
• Installed capacity 37,480 MWe
• Share of indigenous sources 30 percent
• Thermal potential 120 TWh
• Installed thermal capacity 42 TWh (35)
• Hydroelectric potential 128 TWh
• Installed hydroelectric capacity 45 TWh (35)
• Total energy potential 248 TWh
• Total capacity created 87 TWh (35)
• Total energy consumed 150 TWh

6
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Major steps in Turkeys interest in nuclear
  energy
• In 1956 the Turkish Atomic Energy Commission
  (TAEC) was established under the auspices of the
  Turkish Prime Ministry to coordinate efforts to
  build nuclear research and training centers, and
  to issue licenses for nuclear power plants
• In 1961 the Cekmece Nuclear Research and
  Training Center (CNRTC) was established and a 1
  MWth pool-type research reactor TR-1 was
  installed in 1962
• In 1966 the Ankara Nuclear Research and Training
  Center (ANRTC) was established to carry out
  fundamental and applied research to use nuclear
  energy and technology for the benefit of the
  country and to support national development
• In 1967 first feasibility studies for the
  construction of 400 MWe PHWR were launched in
  order to start generating electricity by 1977
  
• From 1972 to 1974 site selection studies for a
  600 MWe nuclear power plant were conducted
  throughout Turkey and in 1976 TAEC issued license
  for the Akkuyu Bay on the Mediterranean due to
  its stable seismic conditions

7
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?
Akkuyu Bay

site for nuclear power plant

IAEA Public Relations official Hans Frederich
Meyer said, Akkuyu is the most suitable place in
the world to build a nuclear power plant.
Turkish Daily News, May 31, 1997
8
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Major steps in Turkeys interest in nuclear
  energy (contd)
• In 1977 negotiations on the construction of a
  600 MWe power plant begun with two
  half-state-owned Swedish firms, namely Asea-Atom
  and Stal-Laval
• In 1979 the 250 kWth Triga Mark II research
  reactor started in operation
• In 1980 site selection survey for a second
  nuclear power plant begun and Inceburun on the
  Black Sea shore was selected
• In 1981 the TR-1, which was shut down in 1977,
  was replaced by a 5 MWth pool-type research
  reactor TR-2
• In 1982 TAEC was replaced by Turkish Atomic
  Energy Authority (TAEK) as a governmental
  organization under the direct supervision of the
  Prime Minister
• In 1983 letters of intent were issued to 3
  firms AECL for a 655 MWe CANDU (Akkuyu) KWU for
  990 MWe PWR (Akkuyu) GE for 1,185 MWe BWR
  (Sinop)

9
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Major steps in Turkeys interest in nuclear
  energy (contd)
• ...General Electric (GE) soon withdrawn, but AECL
  and KWU continued. At a later stage KWU as well
  withdrawn
• In 1984 the Turkish government suggested
  Built-Operate-Transfer (BOT) to AECL for two
  CANDU reactors one in Akkuyu and one in Inceburun
  (Sinop)
• Allegations about an illegal Turkish-Pakistani
  connection are intensified and they have
  affected the Canadian firm, which had already
  encountered troubles in financing the bid,
  resulting in a deadlock in the negotiations
• In 1988 Turkey signed a 15-year nuclear
  cooperation agreement with Argentina for
  technical assistance including front-end
  nuclear fuel-cycle research and development, and
  research on power and research reactor planning,
  construction, quality assurance, operation and
  regulation
• Turkey is interested in Argentine 380 MWe Argos
  PWR designed by Empresa Nuclear Argentina de
  Centrales Electricas (ENACE)

10
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Major steps in Turkeys interest in nuclear
  energy (contd)
• ...As part of the agreement Turkish scientists
  and technicians would go to Bariloche Nuclear
  Center in Argentina for training
• Turkey also sought an agreement for an Argentine
  25 MWe CAREM nuclear reactor developed by
  Investigaciones Aplicadas (INVAP) at Bariloche
  Center
• In 1990 Turkey and Argentina agreed to form a
  joint architect-engineering firm to develop
  Argentinas modular low power CAREM-25 reactors
  to export to other nations in Latin America,
  Africa and the Middle East in the long term
• The United States was said to have worried
  because of the fears that Turkey might sell the
  technology, that it would acquire from Argentina,
  to Pakistan
• Prof. Dr. Yalcin Sanalan, then Director of TAEK,
  soon cancelled the CAREM-25 deal which he found
  ambiguous, because CAREM was too small for
  electricity generation, too big for research and
  training, but suitable for plutonium production
  thus a proliferation concern that would diminish
  Turkeys chances in the future

11
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Major steps in Turkeys interest in nuclear
  energy (contd)
• ...in 1995 the Korean Atomic Energy Research
  Institute (KAERI) won a contract for
  investigation of internationally accepted
  contemporary nuclear power plant types and
  systems feasible for Turkey review of bids
  solicited during previous attempts to set up a
  nuclear program in Turkey and consultations with
  TEAS during bid evaluations and contract
  negotiations
• In 1996 Turkey planned to accept bids for Akkuyu
  nuclear power plant either as a single unit of
  1,200 MWe or two units of 600 MWe each
• Three consortia made offers in the bidding 1.
  Westinghouse (USA), Mitsubishi (Japan) Enka-MNG
  (Turkey) 2. AECL (Canada), Kuarner John Brown
  (Britain), Hitachi (Japan), Gama-Guris-Bayindir
  (Turkey), Ansoldo (Italy) Daiwoo (Korea). 3. NPI
  (France-Germany), Siemens (Germany), Framatome
  (France), Campenon Bernard-Hochtief-Garanti
  (Germany-Turkey), Simko, STFA, Tekfen (Turkey)
• In June 2000, the Turkish government postponed
  the bid to be considered at a later time due to
  a lack of financial resources

12
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!?

• Why did Turkeys repeated attempts to install
  nuclear power plants fail?
• International Concerns
• 1...Worries about illicit cooperation between
  Turkey and Pakistan
• 2...Allegations of secret desires to build
  nuclear weapons capability
• Domestic Disorder
• 1...Lack of well defined objectives
• 2...Lack of coordination within bureaucracy
• 3...Lack of a master plan
• 4...Lack of a reliable database
• 5...Lack of financial resources

13
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!

• Major arguments against nuclear energy in Turkey
• 1...Nuclear energy is old fashioned and
  abandoned in the developed world
• 2...Renewable energy is fashionable and Turkey
  has enough potential
• 3... Nuclear energy is not cheap anymore, and
  its percentage will be small
• 4...Nuclear accidents can have catastrophic
  effects
• 5...Nuclear waste disposal is a big problem yet
  to be found a safe solution
• 6...Nuclear energy plants increase dependency on
  foreign fuel
• 7...Energy consumption estimates are
  exaggerated
• 8...Uprading the energy distribution system
  costs cheaper
• 9...Akkuyu is very close to faultlines sesimic
  studies must be revised

14
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!

• My arguments against possession of nuclear
  weapons by Turkey
• 1...Turkey is a member of the NPT as a NNWS
• 2...Turkey has comprehensive safeguards
  agreement with the IAEA
• 3...Turkey is a state party to the Additional
  Protocol of the IAEA
• 4...Interest groups and NGOs in Turkey will not
  tolerate clandestine efforts
• 5...Turkey is a member of NATO and has EU
  membership perspective
• 6...Turkey has powerful armed forces doesnt
  need nukes to deter enemies
• 7...Turkey cannot use nuclear weapons
  effectively in any scenario
• 8...Confrontation with the world will have
  disastrous effects for Turkey
• 9...Turkeys neighbors may wage proxy wars, as
  did Syria in the past

15
Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest for Nuclear
Power!

Conference on Energy Resources and Security,
January 15-16, 2004, War Academies, Istanbul
16
MTA SEMINAR Whats Wrong With Turkeys Quest
for Nuclear Power? MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP
MTA FellowBelfer Center for Science and
International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of
GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY

• BCSIA Library
• December 14, 2004