Trends and Laws

1
Trends and Laws

• Profs. Chuah and Kishore
• EMC 165
• Spring 2005

2
Last Time/Today

• Last time, we reviewed some basics of computer
  and networks and we examined some laws
  describing growth in this industry.
• Today, we will review some business and
  technology trends related to computer and network
  engineering.

3
Clarification from Last Time

• Recall we talked about transistors.
• Transistors can be used as electrical switches

For example,
Volts
Volts
Here, 5V represents bit 1 and 0V represents bit
0.
5V
Transistor
5V
0V
0V
t
t
Or,
Volts
Volts
5V
Transistor
5V
0V
0V
t
t
4
Clarification (Contd)

• Using transistors we can then construct larger
  units called gates. For example, an AND gate or
  an OR gate
• They each have two inputs and one output. Input
  are bits (represented as voltage signal, e.g.,
  with value 5V or 0V)

1
1
OR
1
AND
1
1
1
OR
AND
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
OR
0
AND
0
1
0
OR
AND
0
0
1
1
0
0
5
Clarification (Contd)

• There are also other types of gates, e.g., NOR,
  NAND, XOR, etc.
• All computer operations are performed using these
  gates.
• For example, adding two numbers numbers are
  converted to binary format, binary addition is
  performed by feeding the binary numbers to a
  series of gates.
• Transistors are the elemental units that make
  modern computers (and thus digital communication
  networks) work.

6
Technology Penetration Rates
7
What is it?

• Penetration rate of a technology (say cell phones
  or computers, etc) measures the number of these
  units per number of inhabitants (sometimes per
  number of households).
• Measurements are made at regularly and give
  indication of the growth rate of a technology.

8
Penetration Rate of Several Key 20th Century
Technologies
Source U.S. Census Bureau
9
Another Representation
10
What these curves show

• Television experienced rapid surge in sales in
  the 50s. (Due in part to increase in TV
  production post WWII)
• VCR Sales saw similar surge in 80s.
• In contrast, some other communication
  technologies took far longer to spread.
• For example, sales of radio initially held back
  due to technological complexity of crystal sets
  and onset of Great Depression. Today there are
  more radio sets than people in the U.S.

11
What these curve show (Contd)

• Telephones have been around since 1877 but only
  took off after WWII.
• Vehicles (not shown in curve) experienced steady
  growth but really took off after 1945.
• Cable TV saw slow diffusion from 60s to 80s,
  when cables were being laid out. Only after
  sufficient cable equipment deployment did
  subscription growth occur.

12
What these curves show (Contd)

• Flood of internet users since early 90s show
  sharp growth.
• It remains to see where the penetration rate will
  level off. Whether it will level off at roughly
  2/3, like Cable TV, or over 90, like TV.
• How does Internet Usage in U.S. compare to the
  rest of the world?

13
Internet Usage

• As of September 30, 2004 the number of Internet
  users equal 812,931,592. Average penetration
  rate is12.7 .
• Asia continues to lead in the number of surfers
  with 257,898,314 people, equivalent to 31.7 of
  the world total. Europe comes next with
  230,886,424 surfers, 28.4 of the total. Northern
  America is third with 222,165,659 Internet users,
  a 27.3 of the total.

14
Internet Usage (Contd)

• Remaining 12.6 is represented by 55,930,974
  users in Latin America, plus 17,325,900 users in
  the Middle East, 15,787,221 users in Oceania, and
  12,937,100 surfers in Africa.
• Internet growth to date since the year 2000 has
  been 125.2, or about 25 per year. At this rate,
  Internet will hit one billion users in 2005.

15


TOP 22 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INTERNET PENETRATION RATE TOP 22 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INTERNET PENETRATION RATE TOP 22 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INTERNET PENETRATION RATE TOP 22 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INTERNET PENETRATION RATE TOP 22 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INTERNET PENETRATION RATE TOP 22 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST INTERNET PENETRATION RATE
Country or Region Penetration( Population) Internet UsersLatest Data Population( 2004 Est. ) Source and Dateof Latest Data
1 Sweden 74.6 6,722,576 9,010,700 Nielsen//NR Aug./04
2 Hong Kong 72.5 4,878,713 6,727,900 Nielsen//NR Aug./04
3 United States 68.8 201,661,159 293,271,500 Nielsen//NR Aug./04
4 Iceland 66.6 195,000 292,800 ITU - Dec./03
5 Netherlands 66.5 10,806,328 16,254,900 Nielsen//NR Aug./04
6 Australia 65.9 13,359,821 20,275,700 Nielsen//NR Aug./04
7 Canada 64.2 20,450,000 31,846,900 C.I.Almanac - Dec/03
8 Switzerland 63.5 4,432,190 7,433,000 Nielsen//NR Aug./04
9 Denmark 62.5 3,375,850 5,397,600 Nielsen//NR June/02
10 Korea, (South) 62.4 30,670,000 49,131,700 KRNIC - July/04
11 Singapore 61.0 2,135,000 3,499,500 ITU - Sept/04
12 United Kingdom 58.5 34,874,469 59,595,900 Nielsen//NR Aug./04
13 Liechtenstein 57.6 20,000 34,700 CIA - Dec/02
14 Germany 57.1 47,182,668 82,633,200 Nielsen//NR July/04
15 Bermuda 54.2 34,500 63,600 ITU - Dec/03
16 Japan 52.2 66,548,060 127,853,600 Nielsen//NR July/04
17 Croatia 52.1 2,318,240 4,453,700 ITU - Sept/04
18 New Zealand 52.0 2,110,000 4,059,900 ITU - Dec/03
17 Taiwan 51.1 11,602,523 22,689,300 Nielsen//NR June/01
20 Faroe Islands 50.9 25,000 49,100 CIA - Dec/02
21 Finland 50.7 2,650,000 5,231,900 ITU - Dec/02
22 Norway 50.0 2,288,000 4,577,500 C.I.Almanac - Dec/03

TOP 22 in Penetration TOP 22 in Penetration 62.1 468,840,669 754,384,600 IWS - Sept.30/04
Rest of the World Rest of the World 6.1 344,090,923 5,582,313,287 IWS - Sept.30/04
TotalWorld - Users TotalWorld - Users 12.7 812,931,592 6,390,147,487 IWS - Sept.30/04


16
How to measure Internet Usage?

• What is an internet user? There are some
  disagreements on how to answer this seemingly
  simple question.
• The International Telecommunication Union (ITU)
  says an internet user as someone aged 2 years old
  and above, who went online in the past 30 days.
• US Department of Commerce defines internet users
  as those 3 years or older who 'currently use' the
  internet.
• Other market researchers have there own
  definitions.

17
Measuring Internet Usage (Contd)

• Data showed in earlier slide defines an
  Internet User as anyone currently in capacity to
  use the Internet, i.e., an Internet User has
• (1) Access to an Internet connection point,
  and
• (2) The basic knowledge required to use the
  technology.

18
Measuring Internet Usage (Contd)

• Note In many Third World countries one same
  Internet connection may be shared by many
  individual users.
• Result Internet users might outnumber amount of
  Internet access subscribers and also outnumber
  telephone lines available in the country.

19
TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS TOP TEN COUNTRIES WITH HIGHESTNUMBER OF INTERNET USERS
Country or Region Internet UsersLatest Data Population( 2004 Est. ) InternetPenetration Source ofLatest Data of WorldUsage / Users
1 United States 201,661,159 293,271,500 68.8 Nielsen//NR July/04 24.8
2 China 87,000,000 1,288,307,100 6.8 CNNIC June/04 10.7
3 Japan 66,763,838 127,853,600 52.2 Nielsen//NR July/04 8.2
4 Germany 47,182,668 82,633,200 57.1 Nielsen//NR July/04 5.8
5 United Kingdom 34,874,469 59,595,900 58.5 Nielsen//NR July/04 4.3
6 South Korea 30,670,000 49,131,700 62.4 KRNIC June/04 3.8
7 Italy 28,610,000 57,987,100 49.3 CIA Dec/03 3.5
8 France 24,352,522 60,011,200 40.6 Nielsen//NR July/04 3.0
9 Canada 20,450,000 31,846,900 64.2 CIA Dec/03 2.5
10 Brazil 19,311,854 179,383,500 10.8 Nielsen//NR July/04 2.4
TOP TEN COUNTRIES TOP TEN COUNTRIES 560,876,470 2,230,021,700 25.2 IWS - Sept.30/04 69.0
Rest of the World Rest of the World 252,055,122 4,160,125,787 6.1 IWS - Sept.30/04 31.0
Totals Totals 812,931,592 6,390,147,487 12.7 IWS - Sept.30/04 100.0
20
Source for Previous Two Tables

• http//www.internetworldstats.com/top25.htm
• http//www.internetworldstats.com/top10.htm
• Data was updated 9/04.

21
What Influences Internet Penetration Rate?

• Several researchers are looking into this.
• Among the factors that they test are
• Income (GDP/capita)
• Education (computer literacy)
• Market size
• Local/accessible content
• Cultural factors

22
Factors Influencing Internet Penetration (Contd)

• These are all structural factors. In addition,
  there can be access condition issues
• Regulatory framework
• Access business model
• Telecom infrastructure and tariffs
• Also, there may be influences due to corporate
  strategies
• What are the telcom companies doing
• What are the ISPs doing
• What are business firms doing

23
Factors that Influence Internet Penetration Rate
(Contd)

• For example, the income of a nation as measured
  by the GDP/capita is a strong determinant of
  Internet access. A lower GDP/capita is usually
  correlated with lower Internet usage. Some also
  look at purchasing power index of a nation.
• Market size is another important factor as
  information goods often are produced with
  substantial economies of scale. US has an
  advantage in this respect.

24
Influence of GDP on US/EU Countries
25
Factors that Influence Internet Penetration Rate
(Contd)

• One study show that content matters a lot.
• As the Internet first developed in the U.S.,
  website contents tend to be mostly in English and
  geared to an American public.
• This is not a problem for European
  English-speaking countries, such as the U.K. or
  Ireland, or for countries where English is widely
  understood, such as the Nordic countries. It is a
  major problem for all other countries. Developing
  local contents is therefore an essential step to
  improving penetration.

26
Factors Influencing Internet Penetration Rate
(Contd)

• Some studies have also found a kind-of rule of
  thumb as far as regulatory framework is
  concerned.
• The more unregulated environment is the higher
  the penetration rate tends to be (Nordic
  countries, U.S.).
• Not surprisingly, there is a negative correlation
  between cost of access (tariffs) and amount of
  access.

27
How many of Internet Users have Broadband Access?

• First, what is broadband?
• In old days, internet access strictly mean
  dial-up.
• Dial-up phone line becomes restrict for
  internet use only internet data can be
  transported on this line.
• Further, dial-up data rates range from 14.4 kbps
  (kilo bits per second) to 56.6 kpbs.
• Note kilo 1000, mega 1000000, etc.

28
More on Broadband

• Broadband technologies (like DSL, Cable Modem,
  etc.) offer much higher data rates, upto hundreds
  of kbps to several Mbps (mega bits per second).
• They not only give high-speed data access to the
  internet but may also bundle together voice
  (e.g,, DSL), video (e.g., cable modem), etc.
• Other forms of broadband (aka wideband) data
  access T1, T2, ISDN, wireless methods, etc.

29
(No Transcript)
30
Some US Broadband Trends

• US has highest number of total broadband users in
  the world, roughly 40 in 2002.
• Within the US the highest broadband penetration
  is in metropolitan locations (San Diego, Boston,
  NYC, Providence (RI), Kansas City, Detroit,
  etc.).
• State-wise, highest residential broadband
  penetration rate is in Hawaii. Lowest in
  Southeast states and Rocky Mountain states.

31
US Broadband Trends/Facts

• US contains majority of ecommerce websites,
  worlds internet hosts, email boxes, on-line
  buyers, and internet users (2003).
• US online sales at some 144 billion dollars for
  2004, a 14 percent annual growth rate and about
  7 of total retail sales in US.
• Some projections that US online sales will hit
  316 billion by 2010 travel (119 billion), home
  products (43 billion), apparel (28 billion),
  etc.

32
Broadband Cost Comparison
33
PC Penetration Rates

• The number of PCs in-use surpassed 500M units in
  2000 and will reach 1.17B units by year-end 2008.
  
• Cumulative PC sales topped 1B units in 2002 and
  will top 2B in 2008.
• PCs in-use reached nearly 206M in the U.S. in
  2002 and will surpass 269M in 2008.

34
PC Sales
Millions of Units
35
PCs in Use
Millions of Units
36
Digital Divide

• With all this penetration of digital technology,
  we should keep in mind disparity in access due to
  income.
• This disparity is known as the digital divide.
• Following charts show demonstrate statistics for
  digital divide in Canada.

37
Digital Divide in Canada
Data for 2000 Source http//www.statcan.ca/engli
sh/research/56F0009XIE/56F0009XIE.pdf
38
Digital Divide in Canada (Contd)
Digital divide closes as curves move closer to
black curve over time.
39
Cellular Penetration Rates

• China has the largest number of cellular users,
  with a penetration of roughly 24.
• U.S. is second with a penetration rate of roughly
  60.
• The total number of US cellular subscriber can be
  tracked www.wow-com.com.
• As of today (2/1/05), there are 174,908,819
  cellular subscribers in the US.

40
European Cellular Rates

• In Europe, cellular penetration ranges from 70
  to 100.
• In fact, in Sweden, the cellular penetration rate
  is higher 100. This is because people often
  have multiple phones (personal and work use).
• Highest penetration rates in Europe are in the
  Nordic countries (Sweden, Finland, Norway, etc).

41
More on Cellular Penetration

• South Korea and Singapore have penetration rates
  in the 70-80 range.
• Japan has penetration rates in the 80-90 range.
• If you are interested in learning coverage of
  different cellular providers in various
  countries, check out www.cellular-news.com/cover
  age

42
Past, Present, Future of Telecommunications
Industry
43
Roller Coaster Ride

• The U.S. telecommunications industry is riding a
  roller coaster.
• For most of the 1990s, the industry's future
  looked promising
• growth of Internet use,
• promise of a broadband network, and
• a less restrictive regulatory environment that
  was expected following passage of the 1996
  Telecommunications Act.

44
Up

• This led industry experts to forecast rapidly
  growing demand for network services and
  high-margin business opportunities.
• The industry backed expectations with massive
  investments to
• expand the capacity of both wireless and wire
  line networks and
• to facilitate the expected boom in high-speed
  data transmission.

45
And Down

• But in years following enactment of 1996
  Telecommunications Act and ensuing investment
  boom, demand did not boom.
• Demand for both standard telephone and broadband
  services was strong but not as explosive as the
  industry had anticipated.
• As capacity expanded more rapidly than demand and
  competition began to take hold, prices fell. Not
  surprisingly, a few major and many minor players
  fell into bankruptcy.

46
Future of Industry

• A recent Brookings Institute report see
  references discusses several issues related to
  future of industry.
• The growing gap between expectations and reality
  in industry performance has given rise to new
  calls to rethink national communications policy.

47
State of Industry

• In the good old days of regulated monopoly in
  telecommunications services, investment probably
  would not have exploded as it did.
• Even if it had (and demand had not boomed),
  regulators probably would have allowed firms to
  recover their costs through price increases.
• Because regulation no longer provides a floor for
  service prices in the industry when capacity is
  increased, providers compete much more intensely
  on price.

48
State of Industry (Contd)

• This competition benefits service users.
• However, investors sometimes see their profits
  disappear as prices fall, which is what happened
  extensively in long distance and to new entrants
  in local access, and to a lesser degree to
  wireless carriers.
• The regulatory environment also changed for
  incumbent local telephone companiesthe Regional
  Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) and other
  incumbent access companies that formerly had been
  monopolies.

49
RBOCs Divestiture

• Before 1984, the United States public network
  utilized practices, procedures, and equipment
  largely determined by ATT and the Bell System.
  The network performed well and, for customers,
  life was simple. Problem Monopoly.
• With divestiture in 1984, when ATT and its
  operating telephone companies broke up, the
  Department of Justice broke the seamless national
  network into 164 separate pieces called Local
  Access and Transport Areas (LATAs) to handle
  local phone traffic.

50
Divestiture

• Through this move the DOJ created two distinct
  types of service providers local exchange
  carriers (LECs) or RBOCs and interexchange
  carriers (IXCs).
• LECs or RBOCs (Baby Bells) handled local
  telephone traffic and IXCs (ATT, MCI) handled
  long distance.
• There were 7 RBOCs created.

51
Original RBOCs
Only four remain today Verizon, SBC, Bell
South, Qwest
52
More on Divestiture

• The divestiture of ATT (A.K.A. "Ma Bell") was
  costly both to ATT, the Baby Bells (the RBOCs)
  and the consumer. 
• Litigation costs alone for ATT up to the January
  8, 1982 announcement of divestiture was 360
  million dollars along with an additional 15
  million dollars of costs to the federal
  government. 
• But the costs didn't stop there.  To get an idea
  of just how costly this was to both the former
  Bell System companies and the consumer, see "The
  Rape of  Ma Bell."

Clear not entirely un-biased discussion.
53
Divestiture (Contd)

• There were many at the time (especially at Ma and
  Baby Bells) who against the breakup and believed
  the government was not informed in its judgement
• "There are two giant entities at work in our
  country, and they both have an amazing influence
  on our daily lives . . . one has given us radar,
  sonar, stereo, teletype, the transistor, hearing
  aids, artificial larynxes, talking movies, and
  the telephone. The other has given us the Civil
  War, the Spanish American War, the First World
  War, the Second World War, the Korean War, the
  Vietnam War, double-digit inflation, double digit
  unemployment, the Great Depression, the gasoline
  crisis, and the Watergate fiasco. Guess which one
  is now trying to tell the other one how to run
  its business?"

54
1996 Telecommunications Act and UNEs

• It used to be that RBOCs owned all network
  components to carry on local telephone calls.
• 1996 Telecommunications Act allowed for leasing
  of this equipment (known as UNEs).
• The purpose of allowing the leasing of UNEs was
  to allow entrants to either lease all of
  facilities of the incumbent local telephone
  company or just the unbundled, or individual,
  elements of that network.
• Those elements could include, for example, the
  switches that allow calls to be routed from the
  central telephone company office to a customer's
  home.

55
RBOCs

• RBOCs are still subject to price regulation, but
  until the 1990s had been insulated against
  competition.
• The 1996 law formally ended monopoly on local
  telephone service by requiring that states
• let competitors into the market,
• develop mandatory interconnection rules to
  facilitate this entry, and
• allow entrants to lease for resale at reasonable
  rates the incumbent's "unbundled network
  elements" (UNEs).

56
Telecom Act and UNE (Contd)

• These requirements introduced new forms of price
  regulation.
• One new regulated price was the fee that one
  local telephone company would pay to complete
  calls to customers of its competitor.
• The other new regulated prices were the charges
  to lease each UNE.
• The 1996 law did not specify exactly how these
  prices ought to be calculated

57
Telecom Act and UNE (Contd)

• 1996 Act did detail how not to do it, e.g.,
  prices must not be based on historical costs,
  etc.,
• Extensive litigation has ensued over the UNE
  leasing requirement and method of setting UNE
  prices.
• The incumbent carriers faced still another
  competitive threatthis one from wireless.

58
Competition for Local Market

• As a result of competition from both wire
  entrants and wireless, beginning in 2000,
  incumbent local wire access companies actually
  began to lose customers.
• Between 1999 and 2002, incumbent wire access
  carriers lost over 18 million access lines
• Competitive wire carriers added over 16 million.
• Wireless carriers added almost 60 million.

59
How Does Cable Fit in?

• Another major beneficiary of the old regulated
  monopoly structure was cable television.
• But cable also has seen growing competition.
• Due to advances in technology, satellite
  television services vastly increased their
  capacity and lowered their costs. As a result,
  cable's share of television households has begun
  to decline for the first time since the
  technology was developed in the 1950s.

60
Cable (Contd)

• Till now, cable has been winning the race for
  high-speed Internet access customers.
• This could change in the future if the RBOCs (now
  free from requirements to share their high-speed
  facilities with competitors) become more
  aggressive and if various forms of wireless
  high-speed service become effective competitors.

61
Policy Issues

• The poor financial performance of the
  telecommunications industry since 2000 has led to
  a variety of policy proposals advanced by
  industry experts and policymakers.
• One suggestion is subsidies.
• Question is whether the telecommunications
  sector, or any important part of it, is on the
  verge of collapse and, if so, in need of some
  kind of subsidy.

62
Subsidies

• Because the telecommunications industry developed
  significant excess capacity, many firms are
  likely to be unprofitable, some so much that they
  enter bankruptcy.
• But under Chapter 11, which is where we find the
  large, bankrupt telecommunications firms,
  companies continue to operate.
• Chapter 11 firms typically generate more revenues
  than their operating costs, but not enough to pay
  off all of their debt, so bondholders take losses
  and shareholders get wiped out. But consumers
  continue to be served.

63
Subsidies (Contd)

• If a large fraction of the firms in industry
  somehow were to disappear, stockholders and
  employees would sufferand so would their
  customers.
• A dissolved firm's assets are sold one by one to
  highest bidder, and funds are used to pay off
  creditorstypically at rate of a few
  cents/dollar.
• In telecommunications, dissolution is rare, but
  owing to the specialized nature of
  telecommunications companies, even when
  dissolution occurs, the assets are sold to other
  telecommunications firms and services continue.

64
Subsidies (Contd)

• It is hard to imagine the doomsday scenario that
  millions of customers will wake up one day to
  find that they no longer have telephone service,
  let alone no way to acquire any service that they
  want quickly at a reasonable price.
• For this reason, many do not find a compelling
  case for government intervention to forestall
  what the market may require by handing out
  subsidies to existing players in the hope that
  one or more may survive.

65
Mergers

• Another policy option is to encourage mergers
  among telecommunications companies.
• One possible set of mergers is between current
  long-distance providers.
• Only a short time ago, WorldCom and Sprint wanted
  to merge, but the Department of Justice stepped
  in to stop them.

66
Mergers (Contd)

• Long distance market has big three ATT, MCI,
  and Sprint.
• If two of the Big Three seek to merge, should the
  authorities allow it?
• Some say Such a merger would lead to a much
  more concentrated long-distance industry. Because
  many wireline and wireless "local access
  providers" simply resell the long-distance
  services of the Big Three, a merger among two of
  them would substantially reduce wholesale
  competition.

67
Mergers (Contd)

• Competition in the long distance market would
  improve however if local access companies build
  their own long-distance facilities, rather than
  lease the facilities of the Big Three.
• In this case, merger between the Big Three would
  be less problematic.
• Second type of merger between RBOCs.

68
Mergers (Contd)

• Some see mergers of RBOCs as putting the old
  ATT Humpty Dumpty back together again.
• From legal prospective, it has been difficult for
  antitrust authorities to oppose such marriages.
• In both local and retail long-distance services,
  the RBOCs have chosen not to compete with each
  other, and thus a merger would be treated, in
  part, as a conglomerate combination, which the
  courts have been very hesitant to stop.

69
Mergers (Contd)

• A third category of telecommunications merger
  would entail an RBOC buying a major long-distance
  provider.
• In fact, just such a mergerbetween SBC and
  ATTreportedly was first in the works in the
  late 1990s, when then-FCC Chairman (at the time)
  Reed Hundt pronounced it "unthinkable."
• This merger is in the news again now.

70
(No Transcript)
71
Mergers (Contd)

• A final type of merger is between wireless
  carriers.
• For the last few years, there had been six major
  wireless carriers in the USnow there are five.
• Cingular , Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, NextTel.

72
Other Policy Issues

• UNE pricing and interconnection
• Interconnection charges (origination and
  termination charges)
• Universal service fees

73
Some References for Todays Slides

• http//www.inq7.net/inf/2004/jul/09/inf_5-1.htm
• http//www.cellular.co.za/news_2004/june/062404-ch
  ina-USE.htm
• http//www.techweb.com/wire/26802151
• http//www.internetworldstats.com
• http//www.dmeurope.com/default.asp?ArticleID4179
  
• http//sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/200
  4/03/08/daily30.html
• http//www.statcan.ca/english/research/56F0009XIE/
  56F0009XIE.pdf
• http//ksghome.harvard.edu/pnorris/acrobat/digita
  lch2.pdf
• http//www.etforecasts.com/products/ES_pcww1203.ht
  m
• http//www.101science.com/transistor.htm
• http//www.lucent.com/minds/transistor/
• http//www.brookings.edu/comm/policybriefs/pb129.h
  tm
• http//jsis.artsci.washington.edu/programs/europe/
  Netconference/BernePaper.htm