Introduction to Decision Making

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Introduction to Decision Making
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• Stephen P. Robbins ???????????????????????????????
  ? ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????? (choosing among alternatives)
• Karl Albrecht (1980) calls it "choices among
  options."
• In Teaching Decision Making to Adolescents
  (1991), it is defined as "the process of making
  choices among competing courses of action."

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• ??????????? (Decision Making)
• ?????????????????????? ??????????
• ?????????? ????????????????????????????
• ??????
• a process of choosing among
• alternative courses of action for the
• purpose of attaining a goal or goals

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Different Decision Making Scenarios

• Political Decision Making
• Individual and Family Decision Making
• Managerial Decision Making and Business Decision
  Making
• Medical Decision Making and Clinical Decision
  Making
• Military Decision Making

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??????????????????????????????

• ?????????????????????? ????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????? ???????????????????????
  ?????????????????? ? ???????????????????????
• ??????????????????? what-if ???????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????

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????????????????????????????????

• ??????????????????? (Structured Problem)
• ??????????????????? ?????? ??????????????????????
  ?????????????????????? (?????????????????????)
  ??? ??????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???
• ???????? ?????????????????????? (ReOrder Point
  ROP)
• ????????????????????????????????? 2 ??????
  (d ???????????) ????????????????????????????????
  ? 7 ???(L ????????????? ???? lead time)
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????
• ROP d x L
  2 x 7 14
  ?????????????????????????????? 14
  ??????

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• ?????????????????????? (Unstructured Problem)
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????? ????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ?????????? ???????????????? ??????????
  ???????????????????????????????????       ???????
  ?????????????????????????????????? ????
  ??????????????????????, ??????????????????????????
  ?? ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????

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• ????????????????????? (Semi-Structured Problem)
• ??????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????? ?????????????????????????
  ?? ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????? ????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? ??????????????????????
  ?????????????????? ???????????????????????????????
  ?????????????? ???????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????         ??????????????????????
  ????????????? ???? ???????????????????,
  ?????????????????????????????????????????

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???????????????????????????????
(Decision-Making vs. Problem solving)
??????????
??????
??????????? Simon, 1977
???????????
?????
???????????
???????
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????????????????? Decision-Making Process

• ????????????? (Intelligence Phase)
  ?????????????????????????? ??????????????????
  ?????????????????????????? ?????????????????
  ????????????????????????????? ???????????????????
  ??????????????????????
• ?????????????
• ?????????????????????
• ????????????????????????? (Programmed Problems)
• ???????????????????????????? (Nonprogrammed
  Problems)
• ????????????????????????
• ??????????????????

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• ????????? (Design Phase)
• ????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????????? (model) ?????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????? ????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??
• ?????????????????????????????
• Optimization Model ???? Decision Tree, Decision
  Table, Linear Programming, Goal Programming,
  Network Model
• Financial Model ???? Goal Seek, Scenario
• Statistical Model ???? Markov Analysis Regression
  Analysis

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• ??????????????????????????? (Choice Phase)
• ???????????????????????????????????????? ?
  ????????????????????????? ????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???? ?????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????
• ?????????????? (Implementation Phase)
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??? ??????? ??????????????????????????????????????
  ? ???????????????????????????

13
????????????????????
????????????????????
????????????????
?????????????????
????????????????????
14
?????????????????????????????????????????

• ???????????????????? (Personal Decision)
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????
• ???????????????????(Group Decision)
• ??????????????? (Brainstorming)
  ????????????????????????????? ?????????????????
  ????????????????????

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???????????????????????????????????????

• ????????????????????????? (Structured Decision)
  ??????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????
• ???????????????????????????? (Unstructured
  Decision) ??????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????? (Semi-Structure
  Decision)??????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????? ???????????????????????????
  ????????????????????

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???????????????????????????????????????????????
Strategic Decision ????????????
Tactical Decision ???????????
Operational Decision ???????????????
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???????????????????????????????????????????????

• ??????????????????????? (Strategic Decision)
• ??????????????????????????????? ?????????????
  ???????????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????? (Management
  Control Decision)
• ???????????????????????????????? ?????????????
  ???? Tactical Decision ?????????????????????????
  ??????????????
• ?????????????????????????? (Operational Decision)
• ????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????? ?

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??????????????????????

• ?????????????????? (Certainty Condition )
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????? ????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????? ?????????????????? Structured
• ???????????????????????? (Risk Condition )
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ????????????????????????? ????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????? (?????????????)
• ????????????????????? (Uncertainty Condition )
• ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???????? ?????????????????????????????
  (?????????????) ???????????????????????
  ????????????????????????????????

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Born Dr. Herbert Simon June 15, 1916
Died February 9, 2001 (aged 84)
Nationality United States
Fields Artificial Intelligence Cognitive psychology Computer science Economics Political science
Institutions Carnegie Mellon University University of California, Berkeley Illinois Institute of Technology
Nobel Prize in Economics 1978