Global food demand and supply trends

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Global food demand and supply trends

• Dr Theo de Jager
• Agri SA

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Drivers of Change

• Climate
• Global warming
• Exploding population
• 50 more in 40 years
• Economical power relations
• BRICs, China and the trouble of the West
• Political power relations
• Fading of nation-states

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What is happening in the world?

• 1.2 billion people undernourished (20)
• Highest number in history
• Food prices are rising
• Global economic uncertainty
• Upward pressure on agricultural production

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Net importers exporters of grain
Europe
North America
East Asia
Caribian
Sub-Sahara Africa
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Water available per person per day
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Groundwater
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Cropland in use and Total suitable land (million
ha)
Source FAO Data and Fischer et al (2000)
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Factors affecting demand

• Population urbanisation
• Population growth outpacing economic growth
• Over 9 billion by 2050
• 70 will live in cities
• ? Demand on agriculture 70 increase in output
  needed
• Economic realities
• Poor spend 60 of earnings on food
• Lifestyle Culture

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Population growth
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Urbanisation
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Changes in demand result from increased income
Income lt 1/day Income 1-2 /day Income 2-10/day Income gt10/day
1,25 Bn people Under nutrition Rural/squatters 3 Bn people Sufficient calories Carbohydrates Spaza/self/subsistence farmers Meat Dairy Fruit Vegetables Edible oils Supermarkets Processed Packaged Branded Variety Quality Supermarkets and Delis (Woolies)
Source Prof. RL Thompson 16th IFMA Congress
Cork, Ireland, 15-20 July 2007
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Food demand continues to change
Income development
North America
Diet food, functional food, organic food
Japan
Western Europe
Australia
Fresh convenient, segmented meals
Eastern Europe
Prepared meals, snacks
SA
Eggs, meat, dairy, sugar, processed mass-marketed
food, soft drinks
Latin America
China
India
Africa (Sub-Saharan)
Carbohydrate staples (grains, roots, tubers)
Source A Jooste, P Taljaard. Lek. UV
Convenience Foodservice Snacking International
Surviving
Mass-market
Quality Individualized Health
High tech
Food perception
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Change in production and consumption of certain
products change 2019 vs 2007-09
Source OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2010-2019
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Factors affecting supply

• Availability of natural resources
• Land
• Water
• Climate Change
• Crop yields
• Changes in demand, also non-food uses
• Profitability

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Crop yields

• Research and development
• Drought resistant varieties
• Technologies to combat diseases and pests
• Training and knowledge transfer
• Improved management

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Agricultural profitability

• Farmers can only produce if profitable
• Profitability under pressure
• Lower producer prices
• Increased input costs
• External factors e.g. policy interventions,
  climate change, crime
• Profitability sustainability food security

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The way out

• Reduce population growth rate
• Promote economic prosperity, health, and
  education
• Invest in agricultural productivity
• Research, extension, credit, markets,
  infrastructure
• Protect soil and water resources
• Assign property rights
• Gives resource owners a stake in environmental
  protection
• Encourage economic growth among the poorest
• Macro-economic policies, competitive markets,
  human capital
• Get agriculture back on the agenda in foreign and
  local assistance

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So what?

• In a future of shortages, Africa has natural
  resources in abundance
• Who will exploit it?
• We can not stop it
• Farmers to Africa are not about SA they are
  about Africa!
• No insurance policies -Leap of faith
• Numbers 1331 - Joshua Caleb

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n Boer maak n plan!