Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Climate Change

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Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Climate Change
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Global Change and Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystem

• Introduction
• Temperature, precipitation, latitude and altitude
  all determine distribution of major terrestrial
  ecosystems (biomes).
• Plants found within the different biomes are
  influenced by soil type, water shed conditions
  and amount of sun.
• Specific combinations of temperatures and
  precipitation ensure the survival and thriving of
  plants within a given environment (known as
  Climate space).

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Terrestrial Ecosystems are an

• Integral part of global carbon system
• Plants take in and store carbon dioxide from the
  atmosphere through photosynthesis
• Below ground microbes decompose organic matter
  and release organic carbon back into the
  atmosphere

www.bom.gov.au/.../ change/gallery/9.shtml
Cycle shows how natures sources of CO2 are self
regulating that which is released will be used
again Anthropogenic carbon not part of natures
cycle is in excess
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Major Biomes and Their Vegetation

• Tundra no trees, lichens, grasses and shrubs
• Taiga (or Boreal Forest) coniferous evergreens
• Temperate forests include evergreens (spruce),
  deciduous forests (oaks), mixed forests, and
  temperate rain forests (sequoias)
• Tropical rain forests greatest amount of
  diversity in vegetation (vines, orchids, palms)
• Grasslands grasses, prairie clover
• Deserts cacti, small bushes

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• Major Terrestrial Biomes
• Geographic distribution of biomes are dependent
  on temperature, precipitation, altitude and
  latitude
• Weather patterns dictate the type of plants that
  will dominate an ecosystem

faculty.southwest.tn.edu/. ../ES2020we16.jpg
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desert
Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D.
and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes
from palaeoecological data a general method and
its application to European pollen data at 0 and
6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12185-194.
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Global Distribution of Vegetation 6,000 years ago
temperate deciduous
cold deciduous
taiga
tundra
conifers
desert
grassland
woods scrub
Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D.
and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes
from palaeoecological data a general method and
its application to European pollen data at 0 and
6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12185-194.
9
Global Distribution of Vegetation - Present
taiga
tundra
temperate deciduous
cold deciduous
warm mix
grassland
tropical R.F.
Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D.
and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes
from palaeoecological data a general method and
its application to European pollen data at 0 and
6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12185-194.
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Shifts in Terrestrial Habitat
18 kya
18Kya

• 18,000 years ago Spruce trees and oak trees
  filled small pockets of habitat as climates
  warmed Spruce trees migrated into the Northern
  Hemispheres and the Oak trees expanded in to
  Southeastern U.S., Western Europe and Southern
  Europe
• Shifts in vegetation occur slowly tree species
  were able to successfully expand into favorable
  regions

ice
ice sheet
oak
spruce
spruce
9 kya
9Kya
ice
ice
spruce
oak
Present
Present
spruce
ice
spruce
oak
oak
Distribution of spruce and oak forests in
Northern Hemisphere since the Last glacial period
18,000 kya
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tundra
PRESENT DAY BIOMES
taiga
taiga
desert
temp. decd. forest
desert
grassland
trop. rain forest
scrub forest
desert
temp rain forest
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Tundra
Location  Regions south of the ice caps of the Arctic and extending across North America, Europe and Siberia (high mountain tops)
Greenland
Alaska
Siberia
N. Europe
Yakutsk
Average Temperature -40C to 18C Average Precipitation  150 to 250 mm of rain per year Type of vegetation  Almost no trees due to short growing season and permafrost lichens, mosses, grasses, and shrubs
Canada
Ice land
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Average annual temperature and precipitation
Yakutsk, Russia Location  62.1 N 129 W
earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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Temperature  -40C to 20C, average summer temperature is 10C Precipitation 300 to 900 millimeters of rain per year Vegetation  Coniferous-evergreen trees  Location  Canada, Europe, Asia, and the United States Other  Coniferous forest regions have cold, long, snowy winters, and warm, humid summers well-defined seasons, at least four to six frost-free months
Boreal Forest (Taiga)
Europe
Asia
Canada
S.W. U.S
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Boreal Forest (Taiga)
Average annual temperature and precipitation
Beaverlodge, Alberta, Canada

55oN 119o W

earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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Temperate Forests
Four types 1. deciduous forests 2. evergreen
forests 3. mixed deciduous and evergreen 4.
temperate rain forests
Location  Eastern United States, Canada, Europe,
China, and Japan
Average Yearly Temperature  Between -30C to 30C hot summers, cold winters sunlight varies between seasons  Average Yearly Precipitation  750 to 1,500 mm of rain per year Vegetation  Deciduous - Broadleaf trees (oaks, maples, beeches), shrubs, perennial herbs, and mosses. Evergreen (N. America) Spruce, Hemlock, Pine and Fir trees Temperate Rainforests (CA, OR, WA) made up of Red wood and Sequoias 
www.windows.ucar.edu/.../ earth/forest_eco.html
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Average annual temperature and rainfall
Staunton, Virginia, United States 38oN 79oW

earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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Tropical Forests
General Characteristics Average Temperature 20C to 25C, must remain warm and frost-free Average Precipitation 2,000 to 10,000 millimeters of rain per year Average Humidity Between 77 88 Types of Vegetation  Large trees reaching up to 240 feet, have the most diverse trees than any other biome vines, orchids, ferns Tropical rainforests Cover less than 6 of Earths land surface Produce more than 40 of Earths oxygen Contain more than half of all the worlds plants and animals ¼ of all medicines come from rainforest plants Scientists believe more than 1400 tropical plants thought to be potential cures to cancer
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Tropical Rainforest
India
S.E. Asia
New Guinea
Zaire
Amazon river basin
Queensland
Madagascar
3 major geographical areas 1. America Amazon
river basin 2. Africa Zaire basin, small
area of W. Africa, Eastern portion of
Madagascar 3. Asia West coast of India,
Assam, S.E. Asia, New Guinea and Queensland,
Australia
"Rainforests", http//passporttoknowledge.com/rain
forest/GEOsystem/Maps/se_asia.html, (3/18/02)
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Campa Pita, Belize 15 N latitude
Tropical Forest
Average annual temperature and precipitation


earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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Southeast Asia Tropical Rainforest Monsoons role

• SE Asia has a tropical wet climate which is
  influenced by ocean wind systems originating in
  the Indian Ocean and China Sea
• 2 monsoon seasons
• Northeast monsoons (Oct. Feb) bring heavy
  rains to Eastern side of the islands
• Southwest monsoons (April Aug) more powerful
  of the two seasons brings heavy rainfall to the
  western side of the islands Eastern side of
  islands dry but windy (due to rain shadow)
• Change in monsoon cycle bring heavy consequences
• Ex. 1992 1993 logging degraded primary
  foresting making it vulnerable to fires. A
  drought brought on by El Nino created devastating
  fires destroying 27,000 km2 of acreage.
• In 1998 the same type of thing happened again
  when El Nino created a weak monsoon season
  destroying many plant and animal species.

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Grasslands
Location The prairies of the Great Plains of North America, the pampas of South America, the veldt of South Africa, the steppes of Central Eurasia, and surrounding the deserts in Australia Temperature Dependent on latitude, yearly range can be between -20C to 30C Precipitation About 500 to 900 mm of rain per year Vegetation Grasses (prairie clover, salvia, oats, wheat, barley, coneflowers)     Other Found on every continent except Antarctica  
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Average annual temperature and rainfall
Ingeniera White, Argentina 40oS 6oW

earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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Location Found north and south of the Equator Temperature  Average of 38C (day), average of -3.9C (night) Precipitation About 250 mm of rain per yr Vegetation Cacti, small bushes, short grasses Other  Perennials survive for several years by becoming dormant and flourishing when water is available. Annuals are referred to as ephemerals because some can complete an entire life cycle in weeks.
Deserts
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Average yearly temperature and rainfall
El-Oasr el-Akhdar, Egypt 26oS 30oE

earthobservatory.nasa.gov
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So what are the predictions?????

• Arid deserts in Southwestern U.S. will shrink as
  precipitation increases
• Savanna/shrub/woodland systems will replace
  grasslands in the Great Plains
• Eastern U.S. forests will expand northerly
  weather conditions will become more severe
• Southeastern U.S. increasing droughts will
  bring more fires triggering a rapid change from
  broadleaf forests to Savannas

Climate change p. 104
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Predicted Change in Biomes Loss of existing
habitat that could occur under doubling of CO2
concentration. Shades of red indicate percentage
of vegetation models that predicted a change in
biome type.
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Predictions of Sugar Maple in Eastern North
America
predicted new growth

predicted new growth

• Distribution of Sugar Maple in Eastern North
  America will change due to an increase in
  temperature and a decrease in moisture shifting
  further north east.

overlap
overlap
present range
present range
Prediction based on Prediction
based on increased increased temperature
temperature and decrease
precipitation
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More Predictions
Western Hemlock and Douglas fir found on Western
slope

• Douglas Fir found in wet coastal mountains of
  CA and OR will shrink in low lands and be
  replaced by Western pine species which are more
  drought tolerant.
• Overall Western U.S. climate is predicted to
  shift to favor more drought tolerant species of
  pine

Wet western slope will shrink and be replaced by
pine and oak
Eastern slope will become drier and shift to
Juniper and Sagebrush
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Shifts in Terrestrial Habitat
Potential distribution of the major world biomes
under current climate conditions

• It is predicted that at the end of this century
  there will be large scale shifts in the global
  distribution of vegetation in response to
  anthropogenic climate change.
• With man doubling the amount of carbon dioxide
  entering into the atmosphere the climate is
  changing more rapidly then plant migration can
  keep up.

Projected distribution of the major world biomes
by simulating the effects of 2xCO2-equivalent
concentrations
www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ seminars/960610SM.html
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Boreal and Alpine Vegetation
Predicted changes in Siberian vegetation in
response to doubling of CO2

• Research indicates the greatest amount of change
  will occur at the higher latitudes
• Northern Canada and Alaska are already
  experiencing rapid warming and reduction of ice
  cover
• Vegetation existing in these areas will be
  replaced with temperate forest species
• Tundra, Taiga and Temperate forests will migrate
  pole ward
• Some plants will face extinction because habitat
  will become too small (ex. Mountain tops of
  European Alps)

Climate change
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Grasslands and Shrub Lands

• Grassland will change to deserts or shrub lands
• Exposing greater amounts of soil
• Increasing soil temperature poor nitrogen
  content poor plant growth
• Barren soil exposed to winds and transported into
  atmosphere as dust and trapping IR leading to
  more warming
• Models of
• Climate change
• Plant growth
• Soil water
• Predict shifts in distribution of major North
  American prairie grasses over a 40 year period

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Impacts on Lebanon?

• recent studies found that the Arab region
  experienced an uneven increase in surface air
  temperature ranging from 0.2 to 2.0ºC that
  occurred from 1970 to 2004

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Impact high

• Semi-arid and arid regions are highly vulnerable
  to climate change
• If temperature gets higher
• If precipitation gets lower
• ? pressure on natural and physical systems would
  be intensified

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The Arab region will

• Face an increase of 2 to 5.5 C in surface
  temperature by 2100
• Face a decrease in precipitation from 0 to 20
• ? shorter winters
• ? dryer and hotter summers
• ? higher rate of heat waves
• ? higher level of weather variability
• ? more frequent occurrence of extreme weather
  events

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Impact on freshwater sources
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Status of freshwater here

• Reminder most of the Arab countries are located
  in arid and semi-arid regions low and limited
  water resources high evaporation
• Total water resources total renewable ground
  water internal surface water resources
  external surface water resources

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First order impacts

• Mediterranean hydrological systems
• Wetter winters
• Dryer and hotter summers
• Increase in evaporation from water bodies
• Increase Evapotranspiration from crops
• Egypt
• Increase the potential irrigation demand by 6 to
  16 by 2100

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Drought
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Drought frequency

• Increased during the last 20 to 40 years in
  Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Syria
• Of the 22 drought years in the 20th century, 10
  occurred in the last 20 years, and three were
  successive (1999, 2000, 2001) in Morocco
• Recent droughts in Jordan and Syria worst ever
  recorded
• Varying conditions of water shortage in Lebanon
  in the last 10 years

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But not just droughts
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Yemen recent floods (October 2008)

• Dubbed the 'Manhatten of the desert', Shibam's
  2,000-year-old mud-brick buildings are in danger
  of collapsing after recent floods

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Observed Changes in Physical and Ecological
Systems (from IPCC 2001)
hydrology / sea ice animals
plants study covers study based
on glaciers
large area
remote sensing
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Those at Risk

• Northern countries (Russia, Sweden, Finland) ½ of
  existing terrestrial habitats at risk
• In Mexico, its predicted that 2.4 of species
  will lose 90 of their range and threatened with
  extinction by the year 2055
• Population at greatest risk are the rare and
  isolated species with fragmented habitats or
  those surrounded by water, agriculture or human
  development
• Polar bears facing extinction by prolonged ice
  melts in feeding areas along with decline in seal
  population

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• 35 of worlds existing terrestrial habitat
  predicted to be altered
• Studies found that deforestation in different
  areas of the globe affects rainfall patterns over
  a considerable region
• Deforestation in the Amazon region of South
  America (Amazonian) influences rainfall from
  Mexico to Texas and in the Gulf of Mexico
• Deforesting lands in Central Africa affects
  precipitation in the upper and lower U.S. Midwest
  

www.sciencedaily.com/.../ 09/050918132252.htm
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Key Conclusions from IPCC

• Recent Regional Climate Changes, particularly
  Temperature Increases, have Already Affected Many
  Physical and Biological Systems
• (high confidence, or
  gt67 sure)
• Biotic change 44 regional studies, 400 plants
  and animals, 20 to 50 years
• Physical change 16 regional studies, 100
  processes, 20-150 yrs
• non-polar glacier retreat
• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness
  in summer
• earlier plant flowering and longer growing season
  in Europe
• poleward and upward (elevation) migration of
  plants, insects and animals
• earlier bird arrival and egg laying
• increased incidence of coral bleaching
• increased economic losses due to extreme weather
  events

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Phenology

• Phenology the study of a plant or animals
  progression through its life cycle in relation to
  the seasons
• Another main indicator of climatic fingerprint
• In Britain, for example, flowering and leafing
  occur 6 to 8 days earlier for every degree C rise
  in temperature

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Phenological Changes

• Life-cycles of plants and animals have been
  affected by global change
• Temperatures affecting plants growing season,
  flowering time and timing of pollination by
  insects have all been altered
• Studies already showing
• Mediterranean deciduous plants now leaf 16 days
  earlier and fall 13 days later than 50 years ago
• Plants in temperate zones flowering time
  occurring earlier in the season
• Growing season increased in Eurasia 18 days and
  12 days in N. America over past two decades

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Phenological Changes
Penuelas J and Filella I 2001. Response to a
warming world. Science 294 793 795
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Important to know the particular species
requirements

• Migratory black-tailed godwit
• Shore bird
• Winters between Britain and Iberia
• Breeding in summer in Iceland
• Breeding pairs high partner fidelity
• Male and females winter in different locations
  but arrive in Iceland typically within 3 days of
  each other
• ? how this degree of synchrony is maintained
  when the environmental conditions at the
  different sexes wintering sites are dissimilar?
• Pied flycatcher
• Migration is timed to availability of food for
  its nestlings
• However in parts of the Netherlands the
  caterpillars is now at its food peak early in the
  season. There the flycatcher population is in
  decline
• Will it be able to adapt in time?

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Biological communities and species shift

• Some species do not migrate but will shift
  their geographical position or range in response
  to CC
• Climate is but one factor of many that determine
  a species spatial distribution species rarely
  move uniformly with each other in response to
  climate change
• Plus
• Different species migrate at different rates
• Thus takes time for ecological communities to
  stabilize after a period of CC
• Species at the leading edge of shifts/migrations
  tend to migrate faster than those already
  established
• Changes are asymmetrical species invading faster
  from lower elevations or latitudes than resident
  species receding upslope or poleward
• Result increase in species richness of
  communities at leading edge of migration
• Transitory biodiversity
• Plus many of todays systems are either managed
  or bound by land managed by humans effective
  barrier to species migration
• Problem old ecological communities disrupted
  impeding species migration halted

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Arctic lakes

• 1997 - 2004 decline of 1170 large lakes (gt 40
  ha) 11
• Total regional lake surface area decreased by 6
  (93 000 ha) 125 lakes vanished
• Northerly lakes increasing in size by 12 (13
  3000 ha)
• Increased precipitation in the north
• Southerly declines in lake area have outpaced
  northerly gains in lakes
• The more southerly permafrost soils ? no longer
  permanently frozen ? allow lakes to rain

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Mountain snow and ice

• Note mountain snowpacks affect quantity and
  timing of water in streams supplying ecosystems
  in surrounding lowlands
• Nearly all mountains of sufficient height on
  Earth have snow caps
• Those will be reduced in volume especially at
  lower latitudes
• Smaller mountain snow caps may be seasonally
  thicker due to extra precipitation
• Already happening at lower and mid latitudes
  (China, N.A. and Europe)
• Plus snow-cap melt run off will shift away from
  summer and fall when biological (and human)
  demand for water is greatest compared to winter
  and early spring
• Annual cycle of water supply for many terrestrial
  and human systems will see reduced temporal
  buffering
• 1/6th of the human population relies on glaciers
  and seasonal snowpacks for water supply
• Over 50 of river flow dominated by snow melt in
  all of Canada, NW states of US, all of
  Scandinavia (exc Denmark) Balkan Europe, Russia,
  NE China, much of Chile, SW Argentina and S of
  New Zealand

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Water and ice

• In terms of human - most critical region China
  and parts of India
• Supports 2 billion people
• Largest volume of ice outside of polar and
  peri-polar regions
• Nearly 70 of the Ganges summer flow and 50-60
  of other of the regions major rivers melt water

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Tops of mountains

• Global warming thermally determined zonation on
  mountains changes and rises
• Cannot migrate above mountain summits
• Alpine biome is 3 of the vegetated terrestrial
  surface and shrinking
• Ural Mountains
• Temperatures risen by more than 4 C in 20th
  century
• Tree lines have risen between 20 and 80 m upslope
• Reducing regional alpine lines by 10 20
• Mountain pygmy possum (S-E Australia)
• Habitat favored by skiers
• Under serious threat

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Highland forests of Monteverde, Costa Rica

• 20 species of 50 anurans (frogs and toads) in a
  30 km2 study area went extinct
• including endemic golden toad (1987)
• Population crashes all associated with decline in
  dry-season mist frequency due raising of
  cloud-bank base (presumed)
• Changes behavior of animals
• Harlequin frogs gathered near waterfalls ?
  increased change of attack by parasitic flies ?
  increased mortality

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A message from the frogs Blaustein and
Dobston (Nature 2006)

• The harlequin frogs of tropical America are at
  the sharp end of climate change. About two-thirds
  of their species have died out, and altered
  patterns of infection because of changes in
  temperature seem to be the cause.
• Climate change has already altered transmission
  of a pathogen that affects amphibians leading
  to widespread populations and extinctions
• 67 of the 110 species of harlequin frogs
  endemic to the region have died in past 20 years
• 78-83 of extinctions occurred in unusually warm
  years in the tropics
• Shifting temperatures are the ultimate trigger
  for the expansion of a pathogenic fungus

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A message from the frogs Blaustein and
Dobston (Nature 2006)

• The powerful synergy between pathogen
  transmission and climate change should give us
  cause for concern about human health in a warmer
  world.

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Climate Change and Human Health

• Climate change should be billed as a 'health' not
  'environmental' disaster
• The researchers from George Mason University's
  Center for Climate Change Communication (4C),
  whose study was recently published in the BMC
  public health journal, said the health impacts of
  climate change had been 'dramatically
  under-represented' in discussions by scientists,
  policy-makers and NGOs who instead focused on
  'geographically remote' impacts like melting ice
  caps in the Arctic.

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Epidemiological Framework
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Climate change and health pathway from driving
forces, through exposures to potential health
impact.
Source Climate Change and Human Health Risks
and Reponses. Summary (WHO, 2003)
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Climate Change and Human Health Pathways
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POOR RAINS
Inadequate in volume and distribution
Poor grass
Poor Harvest
People Underfed (Malnutrition)
Overgrazing where grass is good
Less meat, less milk
Animals underfed
Grass /vegetation cover lost
Over-grazing, trees cut down for fuel
Animal death
Poverty
LAND DEGRADATION
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Model projections

• Projected impacts of heat waves
• Average summer mortality rates attributed to hot
  weather episodes
• Changes with doubling or tripling of carbon
  dioxide
• -gt projections of mortality can double or triple
  in next several decades

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What have we seen?Recent Heat Waves

• Location Year
  Approx. No.
• 
  Deaths
• Western Europe 2006
  3,392
• Europe
  2003 72,000
• India
  1998 2,541
• USA
  1995 670
• USA
  1993 200
• USA
  1966 500
• Aust Melbourne 1959
  145
• -------------------------------------------------
  ---------------------------------
• --------------------------------------------------
  --------------------------------
• Netherlands 1,000 Belgium 940.
• Italy 20,089 France 19,490 Spain 15,090
  Germany 9,355.
• Estimation. Total probably higher.

India June 2003 T 122 degrees F gt 1400
deaths July Floods Japanese B encephalitis
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Summer 2003 heat wave

• France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal
• Up to 72,000 deaths
• Temperature was 10 degrees C (18 degrees F) above
  30 year average

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European Heatwave 2003
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Hotter?

• Expect more extreme weather events But not all
  extreme weather events are attributable to CC
• Need to know what is expected with natural
  variability assuming no carbon dioxide forcing
  and with climate forcing from additional
  anthropogenic greenhouse gases
• UK HadCM3 model an exceptionally warm summer up
  to 2020 will become a normal summer by the 2040s
  in Europe they projected an increase 100-fold
  over the next four decades

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SoEffects of Climate Change

• DIRECT Thermal stresses extremes
• of hot or cold
• Respiratory consequences
• changes in patterns of exposure to spores,
  moulds, etc.
• Direct effects
• loss of life or health due to storms, floods,
  drought

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Air pollution and climate change
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Emerging infectious diseases

• 30 diseases new to medicine since 1976
• New diseases
• Old diseases
• As climate changes
• Change the range at which they occur
• Extremes affect vector populations

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Infectious Diseases

• Increased mean, minimum temps along with wetter
  winters affects the range, proliferation and
  behavior of vector organisms
• Developed world populations generally have more
  resources to face such problems
• Malaria currently affects 350 million people
  annually, 2 million deaths
• Potential for transmission of malaria from 45 -
  60 of worlds population

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Biologic response to changes in climate

• Global warming and wider fluctuation in weather
  help to spread diseases
• Temperatures affect growth, development and
  survival of microbes and the vectors
• Weather affects the timing and intensity of
  disease outbreaks (McMichael et al, 2003)

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Biologic response to changes in climate
Infectious diseases

• Warmer environment and mosquitoes
• Boost rate of reproduction
• Increase the number of blood meal
• Prolongs their breeding season
• Shorten the maturation period of microbes they
  carry
• Warmer winters tick-borne lyme disease
  spreading northward in Sweden, US and Canada
  (Epstein, 2005)
• Heavy downpours
• Drive rodents from burrows risk of zoonotic
  diseases
• Create mosquito breeding sites
• Faster fungal growth in houses
• Flush pathogens and chemicals into waterways
• Milwaukees cryptosporidiosis outbreak in 1993
• Katrinas flood water-borne pathogens and toxins
  spread.

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Extreme weather events and disease clusters

• Extremes!
• High correlation between droughts floods and
  rodent-borne and mosquito-borne diseases
• Sequence of extremes
• Example Hurricane Mitch (Honduras)
• 6 feet of rain in 3 days

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Precipitation extremes

• Past century average annual precipitation 7
• Heavy rain events (gt 2 inches/day) 14
• Very heavy rain events (gt 4 inches/day) 20
• Western drought Devastating rains

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Diseases Carried By Mosquitoes

• West Nile
• Malaria
• Dengue Fever
• Yellow Fever

West Nile (1937 Uganda. Now Spreading across
Canada)
Wet spring. Dry, hot summer Climate change will
influence spread of WNV And occurrences of
other Vector diseases
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Four main types of transmission cycle for
infectious diseases
Source Climate Change and Human Health Risks
and Reponses. Summary (WHO, 2003)
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Does climate change have a measurable impact on
health?

• Climate sensitivity
• 5 increase in diarrhoeal disease for each 1o C
  temperature increase
• (developing countries only)
• Change in relative risk
• Projected temperature changes relative to
  1961-1990, overlaid on population
• distribution map to give per capita increase in
  diarrhoea risk.
• Disease burden attributable to climate change
• Relative risk under each scenario/time point
  multiplied by WHO estimates of
• current and future 'baseline' diarrhoea burden in
  each region.
• Estimated 2.4 of diarrhoea (47,000 deaths)
  attributable to CC in 2000, and
• approximately 5 ( 60,000 deaths) in 2020. (World
  Health Report 2002)

89
Primary economic, technological social,
cultural drivers
An EcoHealth View
Health impact
Climate change will Impact on all
these Relationships!!
e.g., UVrad thermal stress
Ecosystem change
mosquitoes /- food
Environmental change
Health impact
T, soils
Livelihood population
Social, political Economic relations
Jobs,poverty consumption
Health impact
Socio-economic Level of risk
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INDIRECT Effects of Climate Change

• MANY UNCERTAINTIES
• Alterations in range and activity of vector-borne
  pathogens e.g., malaria, West Nile virus, dengue
• Possibility of new infectious disease agents
• Changes in person-person infections including
  food-borne and water-borne
• Nutritional and health consequences of local and
  regional changes in agricultural production
• Consequences of sea level rise
• Loss of home, employment, population displacement

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Human impacts of other forms of overload

• Human environments and livelihoods deteriorate
• Social destabilization and conflict will escalate
• Some of the worlds poorest populations becoming
  more demographically entrapped McMichael, 1997
  limited data
• Land exceeds carrying capacity? starvation,
  disease, fratricide
• Rwanda prototype 1980s

92
Vector-borne diseases

• Climate change, by altering local weather
  patterns and by disturbing life-supporting
  natural systems has significant implications for
  human health
• Models suggest that higher temperatures will
  enhance the geographic range and transmission
  rates of vector-borne diseases
• Children will be disproportionately affected, as
  they are more prone to infection and death from
  parasites.

93
Food security and malnutrition

• Many of Africas poor are very highly dependent
  on climate-related factors for their livelihoods.
• Weather disruptions exacerbated by climate
  change negatively impact Africas economic growth
  and food security, and thus aggravate
  malnutrition
• Undernourishment is a well-studied cause of
  stunted physical and intellectual development and
  increased disease susceptibility in children.

94
Food Production

• In some countries affects nutritional status,
  child growth, health
• Depletion of ocean resources unless offset by
  advances in aquaculture jeopardize health in
  developing/poor countries

95
Sea-level rise

• Displacement of coastal population
• Predicted rise of 0.5 m would immediately
  inundate 10 of land in Bangladesh
• Alters sewage and waste disposal
• Viability of coral reefs and wetlands
• Again affects range of disease vectors

96
Land degradation

• Absolute numbers of malnourished persons
  increasing
• Many worlds fisheries overexploited
• World loss of biodiversity
• We have occupied, damaged or eliminated natural
  habitats of many species
• Fastest loss of species ever we may cause 1/3 of
  all species alive in last century to be gone
  before end of this century

97
Land degradation

• Agricultural productivity to maintain food
  production have to resort to maintaining vigor
  and resilience by diversity of species to be
  source of genetic additives
• A high number of medicinal drugs come from
  naturals cant be replicated in labs
• Science continues to test many new drugs from
  nature each year

98
Climate Change and Environmental Justice

• Oil-related health consequences
• Extraction Nigeria, Ecuador, Mexico
• Refining and Benzene
• Utility plants and mercury
• Air pollution and inner city truck routes
• Economic inequities
• Vulnerabilities coping, adaptation
• Restoration, prevention
• Public health infrastructure
• Still No nation is immune

99
And the future?

• Further change is anticipated with further
  warming
• IPCC scientific consensus
• Warming will continue through the rest of the
  this century and beyond
• Questions how much warming and at what rate
• Depends on future emissions of GHG
• So what can be done?