AGI Leadership Forum

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AGI Leadership Forum
Scott W. TinkerBureau of Economic Geology
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Humanitys Top Ten Problemsfor next 50 years

1. ENERGY
2. WATER
3. FOOD
4. ENVIRONMENT
5. POVERTY
6. TERRORISM WAR
7. DISEASE
8. EDUCATION
9. DEMOCRACY
10. POPULATION

2003 6.3 Billion People 2050 8-10
Billion People
Richard Smalley, 2003
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U. S. Energy Consumption
U.S. Data Annual Energy Review 1999 (EIA, 2000)
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World Energy Consumption
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Energy Demand
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U.S. Natural Gas Production
Tight Gas, Shale Gas, CBM
Associated and High-Perm Gas
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
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Supply Technology
Data Natural Gas (NPC, 1999)
Recoverable Portion of In-Place Gas Resource (Tcf)
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Proposed 2004 DOE Budget
Total DOE Budget 23,375 million
3 Directed at U.S. Major Energy
Source DOE, FY 2002 Budget Request
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DOE Sponsored Research What Should be the Focus?
Short Term Support Independents Long Term
Support Gas Economy Advanced Recovery Unconventi
onal Natural Gas CO2 Sequestration Data
Preservation
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What can be done?
Support efforts to advance DOE OG What you will
hear- Corporate Welfare Three
myths Wealthy industry does not need federal
support It is a poor federal investment Being
done by the private sector
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Myth 1 Wealthy Oil Industry
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Exxon Prod. Res.
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Myth 2 Being Done Privately Oil and Gas RD
Funding
Note Scale Difference
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Myth 2 Being Done Privately Oil Company
Employment


1,600,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
Global Energy Demand will Counter Trend
1,200,000
Total Number of Petroleum Industry Employees
1,000,000
1,000,000
800,000
800,000
600,000
600,000
(FRS Companies)
400,000
400,000
200,000
200,000
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
2000
2005
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
2000
2005
Arthur L. Smith, CFA - Abilene, Texas, 1996
AAPG Website
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Myth 2 Being Done Privately1998 Demographics
For a Typical Major
Age Brackets for Geoscientists Worldwide
300
1975-83 Boom Hiring
255
250
191
200
140
150
Increasing Retirement
Insufficient Replacement
90
100
76
48
50
23
15
3
0
Source AAPG Website
Age (yrs)
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Myth 2 Being Done Privately2008 Demographics
For a Typical Major
Age Brackets for Geoscientists Worldwide (2008)
300
255
250
191
200
Gone Fishing
153
140
150
100
76
50
23
3
0
gt25
26-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60
with normal attrition and no replenishment
Age (YRS)
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Myth 2 Being Done Privately U.S. UNIVERSITY
ENROLLMENTS
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Myth 3 Poor Federal Investment
Federal Investment 1 of Private Federal Return
on Investment 257x Private
17.7 Tcf Incremental Unconventional Gas through
1996
241 Federal 23 Billion Private
Private sector 17.7 Tcf 1.42 average
price/Mcf from 1970-199690 (1-average FRS ROI
from 1970-1996) Economic Value 17.7 Tcf
1.42 average price/Mcf from 1970-1996Economic
Value Multiplier of 2.48 (BEA, 1992)
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The Challenge
Time
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AGI Leadership
Write/Visit Your Congressman Write the Vice
President and OMB Must hear from the major oil
companies Emphasize Technical Business Need
Energy Research Independents U.S. EOR and
EGR The U.S. Transition to Natural Gas Gas
Economy Research and Technology Demographics
Students and Industry A Changed World New
Private/Federal Model
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Unconventional Gas ResearchFracture Intensity
Fracture Intensity
Marrett et al., 1999, Geology Stowell, 2000, SPE
West Texas, Ozona Canyon
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Monitor
Injector
A
B
CO2 Sequestration BEG Texas Frio Pilot Project
C
440 ft
100 ft
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DataHouston Research Center

• BP Gift Warehouse and research building in
  Houston, 12 acres of land, lots of rock, 2
  million initial endowment
• DOE operational budget bridging grant