Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Forum on Risk Management

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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard AssessmentForum
on Risk Management Assessment Natural Hazards

• Presentation by
• Andrew J. Murphy
• Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
• U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
• February 5-6, 2001

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HISTORIC PERSPECTIVE

• DETERMINISTIC REGULATIONS GUIDANCE
• Maximum Credible Earthquake, Seismotectonic
  Province
• WHAT ARE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THESE VALUES?
• Advisory Committee for Reactor Safeguards
• SEISMIC SAFETY MARGINS PROGRAM late 1970s
• Rudimentary Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
  Assessment
• Seismic Fragilities for Structures

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PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT 1980s
1990s

• Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 1985,
  1989, 1993
• Electric Power Research Institute - 1989
• National Research Council 1988
• Revision of Geological Siting Rule - 1993
• Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee - 1997
• Development of Ground Motion Data Base for
  Seismic Design Spectra (2001)