Re-validation of the Nonviolent Offender Risk Assessment Instrument: Preliminary Findings

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Re-validation of the Nonviolent Offender Risk
Assessment InstrumentPreliminary Findings
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Current Instrument
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(No Transcript)
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Refined Risk Assessment InstrumentSignificant
Factors in Assessing Risk
Relative Degree of Importance
Offender Age
Prior Felony Record
Offense Type
Not Regularly Employed
Male Offender
Prior Adult Incarcerations
Prior Arrest w/in Past 18 Mos.
Additional Offenses
Never Married by Age 26
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Risk Assessment Outcomes for Nonviolent Offenders

Not Recommended for Alternative
Recommended for Alternative
N6,062
N6,141
N6,418
N6,413
N6,981
N7,060
N6,704
N6,204
Offenders recommended by the sentencing
guidelines for prison or jail incarceration
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Study Methodology
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Identification of Offenders for the Study

• Offenders were identified from the sentencing
  guidelines database
• Selection criteria
• Felony fraud, larceny, and drug offenders
• Sentenced in FY2005 and FY2006
  (most recent that can be used)
• Recommended for incarceration by the sentencing
  guidelines (jail or prison)
• Meet risk assessment eligibility requirements
• No worksheet errors

Status Complete
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Offenders Meeting Selection Criteriaby Most
Serious Offense
Total 12,442
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Selection of Study Sample (based on approved
design)

• Staff drew a sample of 1,799 offenders who met
  the selection criteria
• Staff selected cases based on a stratified random
  sampling technique to increase the likelihood of
  including offenders with juvenile adjudications
  of delinquency
• Criminological studies have shown that juvenile
  record and the age of first contact with the
  juvenile justice system are often correlated with
  subsequent offense behavior as an adult

Status Complete
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Composition of the Sample
No Juvenile Record Juvenile Record

Drug 300 300
Larceny 300 300
Fraud 300 299
Total sample 1,799 offenders
For the analysis, the sampled cases were weighted
to reflect each subgroups actual proportion in
the population
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Selection of Study Sample (based on approved
design)

• A large sample was preferred, as some cases were
  eliminated in subsequent stages
• For some offenders, supplemental data revealed a
  prior conviction for a violent felony
• Some offenders were still incarcerated
• Some offenders had died
• For one case, available data were insufficient to
  include the offender
• The approved strategy is similar to the original
  risk assessment study completed in 1997

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Virginia Criminal History Records

• Staff requested and received criminal history
  records (rap sheets) from the Virginia State
  Police
• These only reflect criminal arrests and
  convictions within Virginia
• Records were provided in database format
• Staff examined the data to remove duplicate
  records and records incorrectly matched to
  offenders in the sample, and to identify
  offenders for whom no rap sheet was found

Status Complete
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Virginia Criminal History Records

• For much of this data (25,439 arrest records, or
  more than 2/3), the VCC
  offense code was missing (only statute or text
  description was available)
• Staff researched cases and filled in
  VCC offense codes with the best
  available information
• Having offense identifiers is helpful
  in the analysis phase
• For 5,307 of the 36,025 arrest records, there was
  not a court disposition
• Staff used other criminal justice databases
  to identify and fill in
  convictions wherever possible

Status Complete
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Out-of-State Criminal History Records

• Sentencing Commission staff completed the
  necessary forms and procedures to request
  out-of-state criminal history records from the
  FBI
• Request was reviewed by a FBI special board and
  approved
• Sentencing Commission received out-of-state rap
  sheets in two forms paper copies and PDF
  (image) files on disc
• For the 15 states that do not participate in the
  FBIs electronic rap sheet system, these records
  came on paper (532 rap sheets)
• For the remaining states, the records came in
  PDF (image) files

Status Complete
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Out-of-State Criminal History Records

• Since none of these records were in database
  format, staff examined the rap sheets
• Needed information was recorded on a
  specially-designed data collection form
• This information was then automated and added to
  existing databases
• These records were used to supplement prior
  record, if necessary, as well as to identify
  recidivism activity

Status Complete
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Dates of Release from Incarceration

• For offenders in the sample who received a prison
  sentence, staff requested and received data on
  release dates from the Department of Corrections
• For offenders who received a jail sentence, staff
  analyzed the Local Inmate Data System (LIDS) to
  identify the appropriate date of release
• For offenders who received a straight probation
  sentence, the release date was assumed to be the
  sentence date, unless the offender was still
  being held on other charges
• Using these release dates, offenders were then
  tracked for recidivism activity

Status Complete
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Recidivism Measures

• As with prior nonviolent offender risk assessment
  studies, the official measure of recidivism is a
  new felony conviction within 3
  years
• However, multiple measures of recidivism
  were collected
• Any new arrest
• New felony arrest
• Any new conviction
• New felony conviction

New conviction is measured as a new arrest within
three years of release that ultimately resulted
in a conviction
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Analytical Approach

• Two analysts work largely independently of one
  another using two different statistical
  techniques
• Staff will discuss and reconcile differences in
  the two statistical models to develop an improved
  final model
• Staff have developed preliminary models

Status Ongoing
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A total of 131 cases had to be excluded from the
analysis
Reason Number Percent

Offender has prior violent felony 65 47.4
Offender has current violent felony 17 12.4
Offender still in prison 53 38.7
Rap sheet could not be located 1 0.7
Other 1 0.7

TOTAL 137 100
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For the analysis, the sampled cases were weighted
to reflect each subgroups actual proportion in
the population
Composition of Sample after Cases Excluded Before
Weighting
Composition of Actual Population
After Weighting
Drug No Juvenile Record 39.1
Drug Juvenile Record 9.9
Larceny No Juvenile Record 25.6
Larceny Juvenile Record 5.7
Fraud No Juvenile Record 17.2
Fraud Juvenile Record 2.6
Drug No Juvenile Record 17.5
Drug Juvenile Record 16.8
Larceny No Juvenile Record 16.5
Larceny Juvenile Record 16.4
Fraud No Juvenile Record 16.1
Fraud Juvenile Record 16.7
39.1
9.9
25.6
5.7
17.2
2.6
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Preliminary Findings
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Offender Characteristics Demographics
Age
Sex
Race
Total 1,662
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Offender Characteristics Prior Record
Prior Person Felonies
Prior Property Felonies
Prior Drug Felonies
Total 1,662
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Offender Characteristics Prior Record
Prior Juvenile Record
Prior Incarcerations
Total 1,662
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Criminal History Records
Offenders with Arrests/Charges Outside of Virginia
Offenders with Arrests/Charges in Virginia Only
Total 1,662
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Criminal History Records
More than half (302 of 558, or 54) of the
out-of-state records have been examined in detail
to determine the specific states in which
offenders have charges or arrests
1
1
1
5
17
1
2
2
16
1
4
4
10
3
2
2
15
3
1
1
Maryland 58 Wash DC 41
5
5
24
44
1
2
2
14
1
12
Federal 50
2
5
18
Alaska 1
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Type of Disposition Received
Median Sentence 6 months
Median Sentence 18 months
Total 1,662
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Three-Year Recidivism Rates
New conviction is measured as a new arrest within
three years of release that ultimately resulted
in a conviction 1,509 of the 1,662 offenders
could be tracked for the full three years
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Cumulative Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction
within Three Years)by Month of Follow-Up
Total 1,509
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within
Three Years)by Offense Group
Total 1,509
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within
Three Years)by Juvenile Record
Total 1,509
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Recidivism Rates (New Felony Conviction within
Three Years)by Offender Characteristics
Age
Sex
Total 1,509
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within
Three Years)
Recommendation of the Current Risk Assessment
Instrument (as scored)
Total 1,509
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Recidivism Rate (New Felony Conviction within
Three Years)
Recommendation of the Current Risk Assessment
Instrument For Offenders Who Received Points on
the Marital or Employment Factors
Total 963
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Scoring of Employment Record on Current Risk
Assessment Instrument

• Staff identified offenders in the study for whom
  an automated Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation
  (PSI) record was available
• Staff further analyzed offenders who did not
  receive points on the employment factor on the
  current risk assessment tool
• The PSI revealed that nearly 36 of those
  offenders had not been regularly employed during
  the two years prior to arrest and, therefore,
  should have received points on
  the risk assessment instrument

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New Felony Offenses Committed by Recidivists
(N408)
Type of Offense Percent

Drug 38.1
Larceny 29.1
Fraud 13.0
Felony traffic 4.4
Assault 3.6
Weapons 3.1
Burglary 2.9
Robbery 1.7
Failure to appear 0.9
Kidnapping 0.9
Sex offense 0.7
Murder/manslaughter 0.4
Federal 0.4
Other 0.7

TOTAL 100
Analysis is based on the sample weighted to
reflect the population of offenders
eligible for risk assessment
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Preliminary Risk Assessment ModelSignificant
Factors in Assessing Risk
Relative Degree of Importance
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Work Plan

• Staff will continue analysis and will present the
  final model to the
  Commission in November 2011
• If the Commission approves the new instrument and
  recommends its adoption, it will be included in
  the 2011 Annual Report