Environmental Sciences: Towards a Sustainable Future Chapter 5

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Environmental Sciences Towards a Sustainable
Future Chapter 5

• The Human Population Demographics

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Ch. 5 Outline

• The world population explosion including the
  United States. What about your state?
• Different population growth rates in developed
  and developing nations.
• Consequences of exploding populations.
• Dynamics of population growth.

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As of Oct 27, 2009.World Population
6,793,208,538U.S. Population 307,796,653

• Where do you find the greatest population
  densities?

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Major Shifts in Sustainabilitynatural systems
displaced by human ones

• Paleolithic Time of early humans (40,000 to
  10,000 yrs ago) ? hunter-gatherers, settlements
  were small and short-lived
• Neolithic Revolution (12,000 yrs ago in Middle
  East after colder and drier climate occurred) ?
  development of animal domestication and
  agriculture, more reliable ? efficient and
  abundant food source allowed for specialization
  of labor and permanent settlements ? permitting
  better care and protection leading to greater
  population growth
• Industrial Revolution (1800s to present) ?
  modern science and technological advancements
  energized by fossil fuels, first coal then oil
  and gas ? expanding economies, global commerce,
  larger cities, exploitation of natural resources
  and POLLUTION

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The Next Revolutiona return to GREEN

• Environmental Revolution (1960sNOW?) ?
  revolution implies an overthrow of business as
  usual to sustainable development, finding ways
  to limit degradation of natural resources and
  keep ecosystem cycles intact

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The Human Population Explosion
9,000 human beings added to the planet every hour
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World Population Growth and Percent Growth Rate
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Average Number of Children, Grandchildren, and
Great Grandchildren

• In America
• West Germany
• Africa

• 14
• 5
• 258wow!

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• Developing country generally used to describe a
  nation with a low level of material well being
  (low GNI, low GDP non industrialized)
• The World Bank considers all low- and middle-
  income countries as "developing". In 2008,
  countries with Gross National Income (GNI) per
  capita below US11,905 were considered
  developing.
• Developed country used to describe countries
  that have a high level of development
  /industrialization (high GNI or high HDI)
• World Bank considered high income developed
  countries with GNI per capita above US11,905 in
  2008.
• Some use other criteria such as Human Development
  Index (HDI), or Kofi Annan, former UN Secretary
  General, defined a developed country as one that
  allows all its citizens to enjoy a free and
  healthy life in a safe environment."

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Developing Vs. Developed Countries
Who is mostly contributing to the planets
growing population?
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Growth of Cities
Within the last year, over half of the worlds
population now live in cities (including shanty
towns)
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Reasons for the Human Population Explosionbetter
health conditions

• Causes of disease recognized
• Improvements in nutrition
• Discovery of antibiotics
• Improvements in medicine
• Increase in number of women who actually reach
  child-bearing age
• Short doubling times in some countries

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Changing Human Survivorship Curves Went From A
to B
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Consequences of Exploding Populations
deforestation resource depletion loss of
agricultural land biodiversity disease pest
resistance population migration irrigation/water
shortages Wetlands degradation
More Population Causes
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Basic Human Needs are already limited

• Drinkable Water
• Edible Food
• Safe Housing
• Health Care
• An Education
• A Job

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Developing or Developed Nations?

• High fertility rates
• High consumptive lifestyles use 80 of worlds
  wealth
• Intense poverty
• Eat high on the food chain

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Developing or Developed Nations?

• Long doubling times
• High environmental degradation
• Twenty percent of the worlds population

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Global Conditions for a Sustainable Population

• Lower fertility rates
• Improve the lives of people
• Protect the environment

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The Meaning of Absolute Poverty

• Malnutrition
• Illiteracy
• Disease
• Squalid surroundings
• High infant mortality
• Low life expectancy

17 million children under 5 die each year
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Resolving the Problems of Population Growth and
Land Availability

• Subdividing farms
• Opening more land for agriculture
• Move to cities
• Engage in illicit activities
• Move to other countries

How do these solutions aggravate the problems?
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Population Profiles
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Population Profiles
Fertility Rate lt 2
Fertility Rate gt 2
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Projected World Population Three Different
Fertility Scenarios
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Population Projections for the United States
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Population Projections Developing Nations
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The Demographic Transition
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Demographic Transition Comparisons
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4 Phases of Demographic Transition

• Phase I
• ? primitive stability?
• ? high CBR, high CDR
• Phase II
• ? epidemiologic transition
• ? declining CDR
• Phase III
• ? significant population growth
• ? declining CBR from declining fertility rates
• Phase IV
• ? ?modern stability?
• ? low CBR and CDR
• developed countries have completed the
  demographic transition
• developing countries are in Phase II and III

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Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times
(CBR - CDR)/10 Rate of Increase or decrease in
population as a percentage (because now the
rate would be per 100 instead of per 1000)
70/ Rate of Increase Doubling Time (in yrs)
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Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times
Practice
0.6 117 0.2 350
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3 Important American Environmental Organizations

• 1886 Audubon Society founded
• 1892 Sierra Club incorporated (John Muir as
  president)
• 1935 The Wilderness Society founded

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Dec 2007 IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change
Please view your American Environmental Movement
Timeline document Add these 3 international
events to your timeline

• Released 4th climate change summary for policy
  makers scientifically showing that warming of
  our climate system is unequivocal and mostly
  caused by anthropogenic GHG concentrations

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Dec. 7-20th 2009 COP15 UN Climate Change
Conference in Denmark

• The Copenhagen Protocol?? What will we decide
  to do to mitigate or correct global heating?

1975 CITES agreement

• Convention on International Trade in Endangered
  Species restricted/regulated international trade
  of species