Deciding the Course of Action The Kepner-Tregoe Approach

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Deciding the Course of ActionThe Kepner-Tregoe
Approach

• Paul Morris
• CIS144

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Situation Analysis(Where are we?)
Learn Cause
Make Decision
Plan Success
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You think you have problems

• Timing
• How urgent is the problem?
• Is a deadline involved?
• What will happen if nothing is done for a while?

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You think you have problems

• Trend
• What is the problem potential for growth?

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You think you have problems

• Impact
• How serious is the problem
• What are the effects on the people, the product,
  the organization, and its policies?
• Trouble at the Bakery

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You know its a really bad day when
This is one of the homework assignments.
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Pareto Analysis and Diagram

• This method shows the relative importance of each
  individual problem to the other problems in the
  situation.
• This analysis draws its name from the Pareto
  Principle (80 of the trouble comes from 20 of
  the problems)
• Vital few concerns vs. the trivial many

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Toasty Os Product Problem

• A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred)
• 10,000
• B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)
• 30,000
• C. Boxes damaged during shipping
• 2,000
• D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)
• 25,000
• E. No prize in box
• 50,000

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Toasty Os Boxes Analysis
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Toasty Os Product Problem

• A. Inferior printing on boxes (smeared/blurred)
• 100
• B. Overfilling boxes (too much weight)
• 6,000
• C. Boxes damaged during shipping
• 7,000
• D. Inner wrapper not sealed (stale)
• 87,500
• E. No prize in box
• 17,500

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Boxes vs. Lost Revenue
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K.T. Problem Analysis and Troubleshooting
The basic premise of KT PA is that there is
always something that distinguishes what the
problem IS from what it IS NOT. Fear of Flying
Problem
This is one of the homework assignments.
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Decision Analysis

• Prepare a decision statement with both an action
  and a result component
• Establish strategic requirements (Musts),
  operational objectives (Wants), and restraints
  (Limits)
• Rank objectives and assign relative weights
• Generate alternatives

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Decision Analysis

• Assign a relative score for each alternative on
  an objective-by-objective basis
• Calculate weighted score for each alternative and
  identify top two or three
• List adverse consequences for each top
  alternative and evaluate probability and severity
• Make a final single choice

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Example of Decision Analysis

• Our company is looking for a new site for
  construction of a branch office.
• We have determined our MUSTs and several other
  factors to consider
• Two sites have been brought to our attention.

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General Factors for Our Example
Factor Weight
1 Developable gt 25acres Must
2 Favorable physical site attrib. 6
3 Competitive location costs 7
4 Access to quality/trainable workforce 8
5 Quality transportation access 10
6 Capacity flexibility of utility services 5
7 Regional air quality designations 8
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Comparative Analysis
Site A Site B
Factor Wt. Facts Score Wt. Score Facts Score Wt. Score
Favorable phy. site 6 Great size config 10 60 Poor config soil 4 24
Competitive costs 7 Low Land dev. 8 56 High Land dev. 6 42
Access to qual. workforce 8 Dense Pop many compare ind. 9 72 Adeq. Pop high unemplyment 8 64
Quality trans. access 10 30 miles to I-5 with good access 7 70 Right on Freeway good access 9 90
Utility services 5 All systems meet req. 7 35 All systems meet req. 8 40
Air Quality 8 Near non-attainment 4 32 80 miles to non-attainment 8 64
Total 325 324
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Who would you hire?

• Create a chart like the previous example for the
  hiring problem
• Bring to class on the 25th.